Bracketology

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

but didn't the committee show that they kinda just go by the overall group 1 and 2 wins and didn't really dig too far into where within the group they were?

1. Virginia 7-1, 5-1
2. Villanova 8-1, 5-1
3. Xavier 7-3, 7-0
4. Purdue 5-3, 6-1
5. Auburn 4-3, 5-0
6. Kansas 9-4, 5-1, 1 bad loss
7. Duke 4-4, 4-1
8. Cincinnati 4-2, 7-0
9. Clemson 4-4, 6-0
10. Texas Tech 4-3, 7-1
11. Michigan State 3-2, 5-1
12. North Carolina 7-5, 5-1, 1 bad loss
13. Tennessee 4-6, 5-0
14. Ohio State 2-4, 6-0, 1 bad loss
15. Arizona 3-3, 6-3
16. Oklahoma 6-5, 2-3

Hard to determine, but even from this list you can tell they didn't exclusively look at Group records. Duke is above Cincinnati, Clemson, and Texas Tech. Virginia is above Villanova. Those examples are clearly not in order of quadrant records, so some fine tuning was done. But the overall list shows that Group records are very important, which is why I concentrate so much on that. And on aggregate, I think its not such a bad system, especially for one that doesn't use scoring margin.

Edit: Revised our record to what it was on Saturday

[sedziobs]

On second thought, Jay Bilas is 100% correct because one of Xavier's quality wins is against Rider

[ervins84]

Anybody want to do a daily running list of teams that are around our seed line that we should be rooting against?

For example, is it better if Texas Tech or Oklahoma wins tonight?

Obviously we want Kansas, VA,Tenn, and MSU to lose.

[TheShoeFits]

Originally Posted by ervins84

Anybody want to do a daily running list of teams that are around our seed line that we should be rooting against?

For example, is it better if Texas Tech or Oklahoma wins tonight?

Obviously we want Kansas, VA,Tenn, and MSU to lose.

I'll take a stab at tonight's slate.

Seton Hall @ Xavier Xavier is -5.5 I'm rooting for SH

UK @ Auburn Auburn is -9.5 As much as it pains me to say it "Go Big Blue"

VT @ Duke Duke is -12 I'm rooting for VT

Clemson @ Florida State FSU is -4.5 I'm rooting for FSU

Villanova @ Providence Villanova is -9.5

This one is tough for me. A Villanova loss most likely moves eggs up in the AP and betters their chances at winning the conference. Also I think its virtually a lock that both Villanova and Virginia are 1 seeds. However, though unlikely, if Villanova starts to falter down the stretch and UC wins out, I could see UC slide into a 1 seed. Especially this year when 1-8 seems interchangeable.

[Jon Rycek]

Clemson adds another loss to their resume. Should help us out

[waterhead]

Serious question here...

There are two teams that are at (or around) top 10 AdjD and AdjO in advanced metrics like Kenpom or T-rank. MSU and Purdue. I would like to avoid them for that reason.

But after that...what would you prefer? Playing a top rated D with a decent offense or playing a top rated offense with a decent defense? Historically I don't know who we do better against.

Do you want Villinova/Duke or do you want UVA/TTech. My initial thought is give me UVA or TTech.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by waterhead

Serious question here...

There are two teams that are at (or around) top 10 AdjD and AdjO in advanced metrics like Kenpom or T-rank. MSU and Purdue. I would like to avoid them for that reason.

But after that...what would you prefer? Playing a top rated D with a decent offense or playing a top rated offense with a decent defense? Historically I don't know who we do better against.

Do you want Villinova/Duke or do you want UVA/TTech. My initial thought is give me UVA or TTech.

I am talking about which bracket we want to be in here...

[Jon Rycek]

Originally Posted by waterhead

Serious question here...

There are two teams that are at (or around) top 10 AdjD and AdjO in advanced metrics like Kenpom or T-rank. MSU and Purdue. I would like to avoid them for that reason.

But after that...what would you prefer? Playing a top rated D with a decent offense or playing a top rated offense with a decent defense? Historically I don't know who we do better against.

Do you want Villinova/Duke or do you want UVA/TTech. My initial thought is give me UVA or TTech.

I feel like we have struggled against elite offensive teams in past years. But that could be different because our offense is better than usual this year. But in my Opinion I'd much rather play a Virginia or Texas tech.

[kskenyon4]

Originally Posted by waterhead

Serious question here...

There are two teams that are at (or around) top 10 AdjD and AdjO in advanced metrics like Kenpom or T-rank. MSU and Purdue. I would like to avoid them for that reason.

But after that...what would you prefer? Playing a top rated D with a decent offense or playing a top rated offense with a decent defense? Historically I don't know who we do better against.

Do you want Villinova/Duke or do you want UVA/TTech. My initial thought is give me UVA or TTech.

I think beyond just the advanced stats, are the matchups.

Purdue poses a problem with their big men, and while I love Kyle's progression this year, he gives up deep position defensively way too often. That can spell disaster against 7 footers who are offensively inclined.

Michigan State I actually think poses one of the better matchups for us. Their PG isn't offensively superior at scoring, so I feel our pressure will help and he isn't looking to put the ball in the basket more so than normal. They have two good big guys, but they spread the floor and work well to defend with Gary/Kyle. Defensively, Cumberland and Evans would need to come up big, but I don't see a reason they shouldn't.

Villanova runs a ton of screens and odd action, with guards posting up, etc. It would be a great test of our defense, but if we really are one of the tops in the last decade, we can show it.

Duke, what can you say. They put up a ton of points and give up a ton, who wins the battle of how the games played?

UVA is a rock fight.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by kskenyon4

I think beyond just the advanced stats, are the matchups.

Purdue poses a problem with their big men, and while I love Kyle's progression this year, he gives up deep position defensively way too often. That can spell disaster against 7 footers who are offensively inclined.

Michigan State I actually think poses one of the better matchups for us. Their PG isn't offensively superior at scoring, so I feel our pressure will help and he isn't looking to put the ball in the basket more so than normal. They have two good big guys, but they spread the floor and work well to defend with Gary/Kyle. Defensively, Cumberland and Evans would need to come up big, but I don't see a reason they shouldn't.

Villanova runs a ton of screens and odd action, with guards posting up, etc. It would be a great test of our defense, but if we really are one of the tops in the last decade, we can show it.

Duke, what can you say. They put up a ton of points and give up a ton, who wins the battle of how the games played?

UVA is a rock fight.

soooo....MSU?