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Old 01-10-2018, 09:15 AM   #61
waterhead
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I feel like we have to win out until mid Feb when we head to Moody. UCF should be our toughest challenge until then and Taylor I think will be likely to play his first game against us...but should be rusty.

After that point in mid Feb...

SMU away...just a brutal place to play at Moody. Then back it up with @ Houston...not easy. Followed by WSU home...not easy.

Then we get Uconn and Tulsa home...should not be a problem.

Then we get WSU and vastly improved Tulane away both on senior night. WSU has 6 seniors...I don't see us winning that game. How did we get two years in a row of playing away twice on senior night? WTF?

5 of our last 7 games are going to be very difficult. I am marking us down for 1 loss at WSU on senior night. I don't think we can slip up going into those last 7. If we do it's going to be a real challenge to pull off the protected seed. If we can manage to only lose 2 from here on out I think we can get that 3 seed. If we lose 3 I think we are looking at 4 seed and maybe a 5.
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Old 01-10-2018, 09:53 AM   #62
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I have a good feeling Temple won't be an A or B win by seasons end. When they collapse, they collapse hard.


And Im honestly, if UC and Wichita State run through this league like we know they can, its going to be bad for the league overall. UC or WSU has to fall on the grenade against SMU or Houston to ensure they get in.

Look at how the big easy got 7 teams like year, they did it on the collapse of Xavier and Creighton, teams who had good seasons and then got injured and gave every team in the league a top 20 win.
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Old 01-10-2018, 10:03 AM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
Look at how the big easy got 7 teams like year, they did it on the collapse of Xavier and Creighton, teams who had good seasons and then got injured and gave every team in the league a top 20 win.

and honestly neither team deserved to make the tournament by the committees own standards.

Creighton went 7-8 without Watson, so they were an under .500 team for the team that was going to the tournament.


Xavier went 6-7 without Sumner, 3 of the 6 wins coming vs Depaul.


But as we have talked about before, the committee uses whatever they want for each individual case. the mark is always moving.
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Old 01-10-2018, 10:05 AM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
I have a good feeling Temple won't be an A or B win by seasons end. When they collapse, they collapse hard.


And Im honestly, if UC and Wichita State run through this league like we know they can, its going to be bad for the league overall. UC or WSU has to fall on the grenade against SMU or Houston to ensure they get in.

Look at how the big easy got 7 teams like year, they did it on the collapse of Xavier and Creighton, teams who had good seasons and then got injured and gave every team in the league a top 20 win.
I understand your point but obviously no team is going to fall on any grenades. Every loss we give to these teams is going to hurt...so we need them to take care of business outside of that. It's a double edged sword...I get that.
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Old 01-10-2018, 10:07 AM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cincrulz11 View Post
and honestly neither team deserved to make the tournament by the committees own standards.

Creighton went 7-8 without Watson, so they were an under .500 team for the team that was going to the tournament.


Xavier went 6-7 without Sumner, 3 of the 6 wins coming vs Depaul.


But as we have talked about before, the committee uses whatever they want for each individual case. the mark is always moving.
yea. and Im just trying to figure out whats best for this league and getting the respect it deserves. IF UC and WSU dominate the league, then they call it weak except at the top. If we get beat by the teams in the middle they will call it a mediocre league with no elite teams.


I mean, how F'n good would this league if UCONN and Memphis got their shit together? But until they do, they just look at as like were not good even though the top of our league is just as good as the pac12 and Big 10
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Old 01-10-2018, 10:10 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
yea. and Im just trying to figure out whats best for this league and getting the respect it deserves. IF UC and WSU dominate the league, then they call it weak except at the top. If we get beat by the teams in the middle they will call it a mediocre league with no elite teams.


I mean, how F'n good would this league if UCONN and Memphis got their shit together? But until they do, they just look at as like were not good even though the top of our league is just as good as the pac12 and Big 10


Pac 12 grades out barely better than us overall on kenpom. Both of us are way behind everybody else in Kenpom conference strength.


and memphis and uconn wouldn't even have to be great. just not freaking awful. no excuse to not be in the top 75 for either of them.
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Old 01-10-2018, 10:15 AM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cincrulz11 View Post
and honestly neither team deserved to make the tournament by the committees own standards.

Creighton went 7-8 without Watson, so they were an under .500 team for the team that was going to the tournament.


Xavier went 6-7 without Sumner, 3 of the 6 wins coming vs Depaul.


But as we have talked about before, the committee uses whatever they want for each individual case. the mark is always moving.
It has been a moving target but we need to make sure whatever arbitrary variable they use we look decent at. They have given us a good look at what they want to see and we can control most of that. Last year we were 3 for 7 in column 1 games...that's not good. You can't just pick one variable and have it magically eliminate our team or conference (and/or other non power conferences) from serious consideration. You get stuck in a catch 22 if you try something like that. They can still play favorites (which the y say they don't) but we can eliminate their ability to do that if we take care of business.
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Old 01-10-2018, 10:33 AM   #68
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It has been a moving target but we need to make sure whatever arbitrary variable they use we look decent at. They have given us a good look at what they want to see and we can control most of that. Last year we were 3 for 7 in column 1 games...that's not good. You can't just pick one variable and have it magically eliminate our team or conference (and/or other non power conferences) from serious consideration. You get stuck in a catch 22 if you try something like that. They can still play favorites (which the y say they don't) but we can eliminate their ability to do that if we take care of business.
I read from one of the committee members that previous March success is not a factor in determining seeds on a yearly basis. Neither is what coach you have on your team. It would be hard to justify between seed choices if this is how they picked the seeds...it would become apparent.

The power conferences are going to look good because of their SOS or how many quality opponents they have a chance to play against. There is no way around that. The committee made a move this year that would seem to help the lower quality conferences by saying they will use more metrics and changing the variables for quality wins to include top 75 road wins.

We are getting to a point that the mid major conferences are getting a slight bump. We shall see how it plays out. I still like to think we are a power conference even if at the bottom end. Adding WSU is HUGE and getting a couple more teams in the AAC to perform better than last year will also be HUGE in that the committee can't play as many favorites...even if they want to.
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Old 01-10-2018, 11:04 AM   #69
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UConn fans seem to be doing a lot of complaining that they're too good for the AAC. I never get that. You're too good? Then kick everyone's ass and prove it.
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Old 01-10-2018, 11:11 AM   #70
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UConn fans seem to be doing a lot of complaining that they're too good for the AAC. I never get that. You're too good? Then kick everyone's ass and prove it.
If Uconn had to play themselves twice I think they would lose both games somehow.
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