Cobb vs Johnson

**waterhead** · 10-08-2015, 07:24 AM

It seems to me the other 4 starting spots are filled barring anything unforeseen at least for the first part of the season. So I was thinking about the 2 spot. Based on last season I don't think there is any question who should start at the 2 unless Cronin sees KJ as that much better of a defender than FC...but he would have to be a LOT better IMO.

Once FC started coming in with the starting 5 things were starting to click for him. Comparing stats I didn't see any significant stat that KJ had more than a slight edge on FC...however there were a few stats that FC was noticeably better than KJ.

Turnovers per 40 minutes FC was a full TO less than KJ

Rebounds per 40 minutes FC was 1.5 better

FT shooting FC was 13% better

Points per 40 minutes were not far off 14 for FC to 12 for KJ however that stat doesn't nearly tell the whole story. KJ was playing with the starting 5 most of the year. FC's first 20 games he averaged 7 PPG but the last 14 games he averaged 11 PPG (when he played more with the starters). That equates to roughly 18 points per 40 minutes...which is dramatically more than KJ's 12.

Not to mention FC's points ceiling is much higher. KJ never scored more than 15 points last year and FC did it 5 times (16,16,18,22,24).

Cobb can be a game changer...he can move the needle. I just don't see KJ's defensive prowess making up for these other categories that Cobb is better at. Steals per 40 minutes were almost exactly the same. With that being said I hope KJ has improved his handles and can cut his TO's this year...because he is an important piece of the puzzle.

jacobkdoyle · 10-08-2015, 08:08 AM

I'd be absolutely shocked if Cobb didn't start. That worked much better for everyone.

BearcatSpaniard513 · 10-08-2015, 08:09 AM

Good post with the numbers to back everything up!

I completely agree Cobb SHOULD start. The numbers don't lie and I remember a couple games last year where we would have lost if Cobb didn't get hot at the right time. He is only going to get better and KJ should honor that 6th man role like Tony Bobbitt did. KJ, DeBerry, Evans and Jenifer should all contribute off the bench. Mick does a great job preaching no one man is greater than the team.

I'm a KJ fan all the way (especially being a Cincy native), but he turns the ball over from time to time and makes some questionable cross court passes that tend to get intercepted.

**waterhead** · 10-08-2015, 08:47 AM

The way I see it there are two reasons to play a guy who is better on defense over a guy who is better on offense (all else being equal).

#1...the plus/minus points differential is better. If our team averages 60 PPG and the other team averages 45 with player A. With player B we score 65 but give up 52. No brainer with all else being equal.

#2...is if the guy who is worse on defense clearly isn't even trying even if our plus/minus stats are better with him in. This could send the wrong message to the rest of the players that they can get away with loafing if they are a better BB player.

I don't see #2 being the case with Cobb. #1 is harder to figure out since the plus/minus differential changes a lot depending on if you are playing with the starters or the back ups...but I am pretty sure Cobb's +/- was much better last year.

Bearcat_NTS · 10-08-2015, 10:01 AM

Wouldn't be shocked if Cobb is our leading scorer. I think he is a prime candidate for the second year JUCO jump. I could see him averaging 12-14 points a game. If he is the leading scorer, that means we are having an exceptional season. Take a look at the "big" games we won last year, almost all of them have on thing in common and that is Farad Cobb having a huge impact.

L-T · 10-08-2015, 11:20 AM

We've been waiting for a while to see KJ become a really good player. He shows flashes, but he is just not consistant enough. FC was not very consistant last year either, but his consistency improved as the season went on. I believe there was a noticable gap in how consistent each player was at the end of the season with FC proving to be the better of the two. It would be nice to see both playing at a high level this year.

**waterhead** · 10-08-2015, 11:26 AM

In looking at BPM (box plus minus) and WS (win shares) we can start to see which players were the most effective/important players last year. These take into consideration offense and defense and combine them. It's obviously not a perfect algorithm but here is what it shows. I'll give you the BPM first and then the WS.

Clark...10.1...4.7
Ellis...9.0...4.5

(clearly we are most effective with these guys on the court)

Caupain...5.4...4.2
Cobb...4.5...3.1

(I think if Cobb plays with the starters his numbers go up quite a bit)

Johnson...1.1...1.7
Deberry...1.1...1.4
Thomas....(.3)...1.8

(solid help from these guys)

Moore...-3.4...(.3)

(I hope something clicks for Quadri)

UCalum08 · 10-08-2015, 12:13 PM

Also to add to all the other good points in this debate, simply put, Cobb looks like a different player. He has posted a ton of work out videos of him doing shooting and dribbling drills from the off season. He looks good, real good. I am excited to see him in live game action.

mdchick · 10-08-2015, 02:41 PM

I don't think there is much of a drop off between them, I think Cobb starts the game, but I think who ever is hotter that night will finish it. The sg position is our deepest imo, because I would think Evans could play there if needed as well.

IDC · 10-08-2015, 05:18 PM

i hope cobb is starting. I think one hesitation for him doing so last year was with him and Troy in the game, there was no ball handler off the bench. That's not the case with Jenifer this year. I think both guys offer different things and they will both be critical pieces this year.

10-08-2015, 07:24 AM	#1
waterhead Senior Moderator Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,298	Cobb vs Johnson It seems to me the other 4 starting spots are filled barring anything unforeseen at least for the first part of the season. So I was thinking about the 2 spot. Based on last season I don't think there is any question who should start at the 2 unless Cronin sees KJ as that much better of a defender than FC...but he would have to be a LOT better IMO. Once FC started coming in with the starting 5 things were starting to click for him. Comparing stats I didn't see any significant stat that KJ had more than a slight edge on FC...however there were a few stats that FC was noticeably better than KJ. Turnovers per 40 minutes FC was a full TO less than KJ Rebounds per 40 minutes FC was 1.5 better FT shooting FC was 13% better Points per 40 minutes were not far off 14 for FC to 12 for KJ however that stat doesn't nearly tell the whole story. KJ was playing with the starting 5 most of the year. FC's first 20 games he averaged 7 PPG but the last 14 games he averaged 11 PPG (when he played more with the starters). That equates to roughly 18 points per 40 minutes...which is dramatically more than KJ's 12. Not to mention FC's points ceiling is much higher. KJ never scored more than 15 points last year and FC did it 5 times (16,16,18,22,24). Cobb can be a game changer...he can move the needle. I just don't see KJ's defensive prowess making up for these other categories that Cobb is better at. Steals per 40 minutes were almost exactly the same. With that being said I hope KJ has improved his handles and can cut his TO's this year...because he is an important piece of the puzzle.

10-08-2015, 08:08 AM	#2
jacobkdoyle Epic Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 17,011	I'd be absolutely shocked if Cobb didn't start. That worked much better for everyone.

10-08-2015, 08:09 AM	#3
BearcatSpaniard513 Elite Member Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 704	Good post with the numbers to back everything up! I completely agree Cobb SHOULD start. The numbers don't lie and I remember a couple games last year where we would have lost if Cobb didn't get hot at the right time. He is only going to get better and KJ should honor that 6th man role like Tony Bobbitt did. KJ, DeBerry, Evans and Jenifer should all contribute off the bench. Mick does a great job preaching no one man is greater than the team. I'm a KJ fan all the way (especially being a Cincy native), but he turns the ball over from time to time and makes some questionable cross court passes that tend to get intercepted.

10-08-2015, 08:47 AM	#4
waterhead Senior Moderator Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,298	The way I see it there are two reasons to play a guy who is better on defense over a guy who is better on offense (all else being equal). #1...the plus/minus points differential is better. If our team averages 60 PPG and the other team averages 45 with player A. With player B we score 65 but give up 52. No brainer with all else being equal. #2...is if the guy who is worse on defense clearly isn't even trying even if our plus/minus stats are better with him in. This could send the wrong message to the rest of the players that they can get away with loafing if they are a better BB player. I don't see #2 being the case with Cobb. #1 is harder to figure out since the plus/minus differential changes a lot depending on if you are playing with the starters or the back ups...but I am pretty sure Cobb's +/- was much better last year.

10-08-2015, 10:01 AM	#5
Bearcat_NTS Epic Member Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: #DumpMick Posts: 7,333	Wouldn't be shocked if Cobb is our leading scorer. I think he is a prime candidate for the second year JUCO jump. I could see him averaging 12-14 points a game. If he is the leading scorer, that means we are having an exceptional season. Take a look at the "big" games we won last year, almost all of them have on thing in common and that is Farad Cobb having a huge impact.

10-08-2015, 11:20 AM	#6
L-T Epic Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 2,280	We've been waiting for a while to see KJ become a really good player. He shows flashes, but he is just not consistant enough. FC was not very consistant last year either, but his consistency improved as the season went on. I believe there was a noticable gap in how consistent each player was at the end of the season with FC proving to be the better of the two. It would be nice to see both playing at a high level this year.

10-08-2015, 11:26 AM	#7
waterhead Senior Moderator Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,298	In looking at BPM (box plus minus) and WS (win shares) we can start to see which players were the most effective/important players last year. These take into consideration offense and defense and combine them. It's obviously not a perfect algorithm but here is what it shows. I'll give you the BPM first and then the WS. Clark...10.1...4.7 Ellis...9.0...4.5 (clearly we are most effective with these guys on the court) Caupain...5.4...4.2 Cobb...4.5...3.1 (I think if Cobb plays with the starters his numbers go up quite a bit) Johnson...1.1...1.7 Deberry...1.1...1.4 Thomas....(.3)...1.8 (solid help from these guys) Moore...-3.4...(.3) (I hope something clicks for Quadri)

10-08-2015, 12:13 PM	#8
UCalum08 Epic Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 6,827	Also to add to all the other good points in this debate, simply put, Cobb looks like a different player. He has posted a ton of work out videos of him doing shooting and dribbling drills from the off season. He looks good, real good. I am excited to see him in live game action.

10-08-2015, 02:41 PM	#9
mdchick Epic Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 2,638	I don't think there is much of a drop off between them, I think Cobb starts the game, but I think who ever is hotter that night will finish it. The sg position is our deepest imo, because I would think Evans could play there if needed as well.

10-08-2015, 05:18 PM	#10
IDC Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 423	i hope cobb is starting. I think one hesitation for him doing so last year was with him and Troy in the game, there was no ball handler off the bench. That's not the case with Jenifer this year. I think both guys offer different things and they will both be critical pieces this year.