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View Poll Results: What will our record be the last 10 games?
10-0 5 16.13%
9-1 11 35.48%
8-2 14 45.16%
7-3 or worse 1 3.23%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-30-2018, 06:00 AM   #1
juckerrules
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Last 10 Games

Last 10 games of the regular season also happen to have half of them against the 3 next best teams in the AAC. At SMU, & the 2 Houston & Wichita State games.
Time to see how tourney ready the Cats are.

I don't really expect 10-0 (although I think they are capable) ..you'd think these slow starts have to catch up to them on the road against a decent opponent.
What are we ok with? 8-2? That would be 27-4 overall going into the conference tourney.

What's your best guess.....if you had no spread money in the game.

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Old 01-30-2018, 07:09 AM   #2
Cin City
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Obviously 10-0 would have everyone on a next level of excitement. Realistically, its possible but I think 8-2 is a confident possibility.The @ Wichita game is a red flag, but its winnable. The other one, and I know I'll get grilled here and its ok to grill me. @UConn Saturday. I hope its just a stupid feeling that passes and I KNOW UCONN IS ABSOLUTE TRASH. However, it concerns me. I hope to rescind this feeling Saturday afternoon. So take your shots...im well deserving of them assuming we take care of business. Good day.
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Old 01-30-2018, 07:34 AM   #3
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I think 9-1 is attainable with only @WSU being a loss.

I know it's not 100% fair to make the assumption but if Temple can go to Dallas and get a W, the Bearcats can. Just can't start slow and get down 10-2 before the first timeout. That goes for all the games, really.

I really don't see us losing at home. My thought for this team was if we play Witchita State three times and win twice, we'll be a 3 seed.
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Old 01-30-2018, 08:54 AM   #4
GarradJ21
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9-1 with a loss @WSU. The only other loss I would be ok with is @ Houston. I think we smash @SMU.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:18 AM   #5
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juckerrules View Post
Last 10 games of the regular season also happen to have half of them against the 3 next best teams in the AAC. At SMU, & the 2 Houston & Wichita State games.
Time to see how tourney ready the Cats are.

I don't really expect 10-0 (although I think they are capable) ..you'd think these slow starts have to catch up to them on the road against a decent opponent.
What are we ok with? 8-2? That would be 27-4 overall going into the conference tourney.

What's your best guess.....if you had no spread money in the game.
I think 8-2 would be my over under right now give or take 1. WSU on senior night will be difficult. Outside of that I would expect 1 loss somewhere. It's just not that easy going through conference road games when you are the target everyone is shooting for. You have to be even that much more ready. We have 2 senior nights away, we have teams fighting for a tourney bid, we have some that will help the other team perhaps salvage a bad season etc.

These are not excuses to lose...they are excuses to get even tougher than we have been already. I think 8-2 would be VERY respectable. 7-3 would be a bit of a letdown. Anything better than 8-2 will be excellent!
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:22 AM   #6
GarradJ21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
I think 8-2 would be my over under right now give or take 1. WSU on senior night will be difficult. Outside of that I would expect 1 loss somewhere. It's just not that easy going through conference road games when you are the target everyone is shooting for. You have to be even that much more ready. We have 2 senior nights away, we have teams fighting for a tourney bid, we have some that will help the other team perhaps salvage a bad season etc.

These are not excuses to lose...they are excuses to get even tougher than we have been already. I think 8-2 would be VERY respectable. 7-3 would be a bit of a letdown. Anything better than 8-2 will be excellent!
Completely agree.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:42 AM   #7
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juckerrules View Post
Last 10 games of the regular season also happen to have half of them against the 3 next best teams in the AAC. At SMU, & the 2 Houston & Wichita State games.
Time to see how tourney ready the Cats are.

I don't really expect 10-0 (although I think they are capable) ..you'd think these slow starts have to catch up to them on the road against a decent opponent.
What are we ok with? 8-2? That would be 27-4 overall going into the conference tourney.

What's your best guess.....if you had no spread money in the game.
There was a time I thought 4 losses would equal a 4 seed. I am starting to think it may be closer to the 3 and 4 bubble. 5 losses might put us on the 4 or 5 bubble. 3 losses on the 2 or 3 bubble. No more losses has to almost put us on the 1 and 2 bubble I would think.

Remember...we have not played a majority of our hardest games in conference yet. Whatever respect (or disrespect) we are getting now SHOULD only get better if we can look good over the closing stretch.

At the end of the season...top 10 rpi, top 10 Kenpom, and a good record against both columns should be a very very nice resume. As far as rpi is concerned I don't think we can lose more than 1 game and end in the top 10...but Kenpom we may be able to with 2 more losses.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:51 AM   #8
jacobkdoyle
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I'll say 8-2 to stick with my original 27-4 prediction. However, at this point I can't call which games we would lose.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:58 AM   #9
justinhub2003
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Our resume is very whack still.


So I think we really need to go 9-1

I think it is concerning that we've played 21 games already and our best win is #44 SMU. We really need to pick up 2 more Tier 1 wins. So wether it be WSU and @houston or @SMU, I don' t care. I just want to protect home court and steal at least 1 of our 3 Tier A games left, but 2 is most preferable.

If the committee truly uses the RPI Tier system, I'll feel good about us. But Kenpom has not been our friend when it comes to quality wins.


Also we need WSU utterly dominate the rest of its games. at this point I don't care about SMU getting in, I want WSU to be a tier 1 win in both home and away games
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:13 AM   #10
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
Our resume is very whack still.


So I think we really need to go 9-1

I think it is concerning that we've played 21 games already and our best win is #44 SMU. We really need to pick up 2 more Tier 1 wins. So wether it be WSU and @houston or @SMU, I don' t care. I just want to protect home court and steal at least 1 of our 3 Tier A games left, but 2 is most preferable.

If the committee truly uses the RPI Tier system, I'll feel good about us. But Kenpom has not been our friend when it comes to quality wins.


Also we need WSU utterly dominate the rest of its games. at this point I don't care about SMU getting in, I want WSU to be a tier 1 win in both home and away games
I agree with you on SMU and WSU.

What I am wondering about is the RPI vs other metrics committee formula. I thought the other metrics were being brought into consideration by virtue of them changing the breakdown of the tiers. RPI did not consider road or home advantage where other metrics like Kenpom did...so they adjusted what columns 1-4 would look like based off of advanced metrics.

Is this inaccurate? Would it matter at that point (after the tiers were adjusted) how each team looks on Kenpom or other advanced metric sites? They already adjusted the RPI formula to account for it.
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