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View Poll Results: How far will UC make it in the NCAA Tournament?
Lose in the 1st round 7 12.07%
2nd round 11 18.97%
Sweet 16 20 34.48%
Elite 8 18 31.03%
Final 4 1 1.72%
National Championship Game 0 0%
National Champions 1 1.72%
Voters: 58. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-06-2017, 06:33 PM   #1
HExus
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NCAA Tournament

AAC tournament:

I don't see many seed upsets. Maybe 7v8, or any of the top 4 over one another. There is a pretty big step off after SMU and UC, and an even bigger one after that. Unless Ucon all of a sudden figures it out I doubt we will be surprised. It will be UC or SMU that win the tourny, and probably both playing in the title game. I could see UCF or Houston sneaking in but I doubt it. I think UCF caught UC sleeping. They will come to play.

NCAA:

64 - Horrible disappointment
32 - Disappointment
16 - OK / Success - Likely outcome - Build into next year.
8 - Probable ceiling - Excellent
4 - Perfect / outstanding - Extremely unlikely.
Championship - We can dream right?

If UC makes 8 or higher thats a slam dunk success. And I think this was be most ideal as its the magic number we haven't witnessed in so long. Just can't get past 16.

I don't have much faith they will get to the elite 8, and if they do I think thats probably a hard ceiling. Thats the high bar for this team imo. Not that its impossible.

Id be ok with 16 and that is probably more realistic.

Another 2nd round exit would leave a bad taste in my mouth going into next year (which regardless, I think will be a fun year).

1st round exit and its just unacceptable. Cronin haters will have ammunition.

Last edited by HExus; 03-06-2017 at 06:55 PM.
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Old 03-06-2017, 07:10 PM   #2
cincyguy13
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If we keep getting to there, we will have to make a run sooner or later.
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Old 03-06-2017, 07:14 PM   #3
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I will be disappointed anytime we lose. I hope for atleast a sweet 16 run. someting to build on
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Old 03-06-2017, 08:44 PM   #4
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I agree. I'll be disappointed when they lose too. But just stepping back and trying not to base anything on my personal hopes and desires.

Realistically this is a team that should find a place in the sweet 16, but you can't really be upset with a loss after that.

I'll be upset when the reds are out of contention by june too, but ill still be hoping.
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Old 03-06-2017, 08:44 PM   #5
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I'm not prepared to evaluate a season entirely off the tournament. Especially when it's a one game sample size where matchups/bad draws/incorrectly seeded teams play a big role.

I mean Wichita St is probably going to get a seed in the 6-11 range. Yet according to kpom and gambling lines, would be somewhere between a 1-2 pt favorite or 1-2 ptdog vs the following teams that will be 1-4 seeds:

UK, KU, Fla, Lville, Baylor, Duke, UCLA, Arz, Oregon, and probably a 3-5 point vs us.

I mean if we somehow got a 3 seed (probably not gonna happen) and got them as our 6 seed, we would be the underdog according to the gambling lines if we meet in the 2nd Rd.


IMO this season has been and is a success regardless how they finish.


All that said, it's gonna hurt if they go out in Rd 1 or 2 again, even if they get a crappy draw. And yes I know the tournament matters, but let's not overreact to it. Keep putting together seasons like this and eventually it will break your way.

Last edited by ervins84; 03-06-2017 at 08:49 PM.
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Old 03-06-2017, 08:55 PM   #6
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How disappointed I am if/when we lose will depend on how we play, as well as how we do in the AAC Tournament. If we flame out in that, then lose right away in NCAA, it won't totally ruin the season, but it'll be pretty disappointing for sure.
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Old 03-06-2017, 10:23 PM   #7
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Yeah thats a pretty fair way of looking at it really. Some times you get a bad draw.

Its still going to be disappointing to me if they can't at least crack the sweet 16 regardless of the draw.

This is a team that can and should be anyone that will see at the seed they will face in the first 2 rounds. We will have to see what the situation is at the time though.

This is a team that can beat any team in the field, but I don't think its one that can win 6 close games in a row against solid teams. Because you know the way the cats play they will be close.
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Old 03-07-2017, 07:12 AM   #8
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ervins84 View Post
I'm not prepared to evaluate a season entirely off the tournament. Especially when it's a one game sample size where matchups/bad draws/incorrectly seeded teams play a big role.

I mean Wichita St is probably going to get a seed in the 6-11 range. Yet according to kpom and gambling lines, would be somewhere between a 1-2 pt favorite or 1-2 ptdog vs the following teams that will be 1-4 seeds:

UK, KU, Fla, Lville, Baylor, Duke, UCLA, Arz, Oregon, and probably a 3-5 point vs us.

I mean if we somehow got a 3 seed (probably not gonna happen) and got them as our 6 seed, we would be the underdog according to the gambling lines if we meet in the 2nd Rd.


IMO this season has been and is a success regardless how they finish.


All that said, it's gonna hurt if they go out in Rd 1 or 2 again, even if they get a crappy draw. And yes I know the tournament matters, but let's not overreact to it. Keep putting together seasons like this and eventually it will break your way.
Good point! Matchup is a big deal I agree. Maybe we should root for the 5 seed instead of the 4. The committee would probably stick us with the hardest 13 seed as opposed to an easier 12 seed (in terms of Kenpom and other metrics). Depending on how that shakes out...we might be better off. Obviously the 5-12 matchup has some stigma to it...but I would rather get an appropriately seeded team (in terms of metrics) as opposed to a mid major with very high metrics.
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Old 03-07-2017, 07:21 AM   #9
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Fun to kick all the possibilities around. Its why as a fan I am so happy we have a program that gives us this opportunity yearly. I root for the cats every game and I'm disappointed every time we lose. So unless we win it all I won't be as happy as I could be. That said, I do love filling out my bracket and seeing University of Cincinnati on the sheet. Not many fan bases have that pleasure.
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Old 03-07-2017, 08:16 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WAITE HOYT 2 View Post
Fun to kick all the possibilities around. Its why as a fan I am so happy we have a program that gives us this opportunity yearly. I root for the cats every game and I'm disappointed every time we lose. So unless we win it all I won't be as happy as I could be. That said, I do love filling out my bracket and seeing University of Cincinnati on the sheet. Not many fan bases have that pleasure.
In terms of most of our NCAA recent appearances my analogy would be the term in a poker tournament "chip and a chair". That essentially means if you have 1 chip left and a chair at the table...you can win the tournament no matter how low your chances are. I like having at least one chip at the table as opposed to none!

This year I feel like we have at least a small stack of chips to play with as opposed to other years. Our sweet 16 team had a small stack of chips but the rest of our years were like having a "chip and a chair". Maybe we have a medium stack this year but I wouldn't call us "big stack". Biggest stack doesn't mean you will win either.

We have reason to have higher hopes this year is all I am saying. Next year we may be playing with an even bigger stack.

Last edited by waterhead; 03-07-2017 at 08:19 AM.
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