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Old 02-23-2018, 03:08 PM   #1
jacobkdoyle
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Evans Running the Offense

One of you guys who is better than I am at crunching numbers...please tell me if there is anything to be made from this:

Last year Evans shot 41.8% from 3 and 95.7% of those 3s were assisted

This year Evans is shooting 38.5% from 3 and 87.2% of those 3s are assisted

Could playing with a dominant ball guy like Caupain have helped him shoot a higher % bc of catch and shoots, as opposed to having to create a little more for himself and having the ball more late in the clock? His number of 3 pt attempts per 40 is lower this year than last. So it doesn't seem like volume is the issue. But there is a difference in how the 3s are being made. He has made 116 3s over the last 2 years so I have no idea if that's a good enough sample to even gather anything from this or not.

I wish I could see what these numbers look like over the past 6-7 games.

Is this an explanation? A concern? Thoughts?
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:13 PM   #2
jacobkdoyle
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It's funny bc on 47 made 3s this year at 87.2% assisted...that'd be about 4 less made 3s off of assists from last year's assisted rate. Had those 4 been assisted to be the same rate as last year, he'd be at exactly 41.8% (if he made them).

P.S. I know it doesn't work exactly like this, so please don't kill me. Just thought it was an interesting tidbit.
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:17 PM   #3
cincrulz11
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First I would say a 3 % change in percent over that sample size is nothing. just 3 games ago he was shooting 41.9%.



2nd i would say most shooters are better shooters off a catch and release. its just an easier shot. i would expect him and most other shooters to shoot a higher percent if all they have to do is catch it and shoot it.


plus its likely the catch and shoot shots are more open. although i have to be honest i dont recall a lot of 3's this year from him where he was trying to take a guy on and then pulled up for 3. I think when he does that, he tends to get inside the arc.



but yeah overall the sample size is just too small. check out steph curry's month to month to see how much it can swing in 120 or so attempts.
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:36 PM   #4
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Cronin says his form is off...that he’s releasing the ball too low- like at eye level & they have been working on raising his release
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Old 02-23-2018, 08:12 PM   #5
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle View Post
One of you guys who is better than I am at crunching numbers...please tell me if there is anything to be made from this:

Last year Evans shot 41.8% from 3 and 95.7% of those 3s were assisted

This year Evans is shooting 38.5% from 3 and 87.2% of those 3s are assisted

Could playing with a dominant ball guy like Caupain have helped him shoot a higher % bc of catch and shoots, as opposed to having to create a little more for himself and having the ball more late in the clock? His number of 3 pt attempts per 40 is lower this year than last. So it doesn't seem like volume is the issue. But there is a difference in how the 3s are being made. He has made 116 3s over the last 2 years so I have no idea if that's a good enough sample to even gather anything from this or not.

I wish I could see what these numbers look like over the past 6-7 games.

Is this an explanation? A concern? Thoughts?
He's 3 for 17 his last 5 games. It's either a strange coincidence or we need to put him back on the wing where he isn't constantly moving and forcing things. If Jenifer can't get us into sets...we need to have Cane in there for all the minutes he can get.
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Old 02-23-2018, 08:15 PM   #6
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How many of those 17 were unassisted? I don't have that data. I feel like he's been doing a little more of the unassisted shooting lately but that's just my gut.
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Old 02-23-2018, 08:17 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juckerrules View Post
Cronin says his form is off...that he’s releasing the ball too low- like at eye level & they have been working on raising his release
Did he say how long it's been off? Players don't normally change form late season... unless their legs are gone. But Evans still gets up for a lot of blocks and doesn't look tired.
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Old 02-24-2018, 07:29 AM   #8
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My guess is that he is taking more contested shots and contested shots result in a lower percent. Also, creating shots for yourself usually result in more contested shots as opposed to shots from assists. Just a guess.

A related side topic is, why do you think he is playing more point? My theory is that people like Pitino or NBA scouts have told Cronin that Jacob's chance in the NBA is at point rather than a 2 guard, so he is trying to give him opportunities to develop those skills. A coach might have several different motivations besides just winning as many games as possible. Again, just a theory, no inside info. Or maybe he just likes that option better than Justin or Cane.
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Old 02-24-2018, 07:47 AM   #9
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Did he say how long it's been off? Players don't normally change form late season... unless their legs are gone. But Evans still gets up for a lot of blocks and doesn't look tired.
He mentioned Jake's been off the last 4 games...talked about how low his release has been & that they had been working on it but added "but he's got to be committed to it"

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/Lance...conn-28983151/
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Old 02-24-2018, 09:50 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Sense View Post
My guess is that he is taking more contested shots and contested shots result in a lower percent. Also, creating shots for yourself usually result in more contested shots as opposed to shots from assists. Just a guess.

A related side topic is, why do you think he is playing more point? My theory is that people like Pitino or NBA scouts have told Cronin that Jacob's chance in the NBA is at point rather than a 2 guard, so he is trying to give him opportunities to develop those skills. A coach might have several different motivations besides just winning as many games as possible. Again, just a theory, no inside info. Or maybe he just likes that option better than Justin or Cane.
Why would he make a better PG in the NBA? It's the complete opposite of his skill set.
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