Official Season Predictions Thread

[Bearcatboy]

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

Defense wins games on the road.

Most teams score more at home and less on the road. Its pretty much a trend in college basketball.

So knowing you will probably score less and they will hit shots they normally don't hit, don't you think you combat that with..... Defense.

No you come out playing your game and if it fails you Turn to your defense and slow it down but come out running and guning

[jacobkdoyle]

Originally Posted by Bearcatboy

No you come out playing your game and if it fails you Turn to your defense and slow it down but come out running and guning

I feel like someone has posted before that the gap with us on the road and at home has been much larger than most teams.

I'm with you. Play your game. No need to be a drastically different team in certain situations.

[justinhub2003]

Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle

I feel like someone has posted before that the gap with us on the road and at home has been much larger than most teams.

I'm with you. Play your game. No need to be a drastically different team in certain situations.

This team shoots much worse on the road.

If you know that going in or at minimum see it at half time and don’t make adjustments you’re a terrible coach. Good coaches adapt and find ways to win.

Also the defense tightens way up on the road which lengthens the other teams possessions and thus shortens over all possessions and scoring is lower. Add In that we also shoot worse on the road And it equals a game in rhe 60’s

[jacobkdoyle]

Added a poll

[HExus]

Savannah State : W - Easy
Western Carolina : W - Easy
Coppin State : W - Easy
Buffalo* : W - Easy
Richmond or UAB* : W - Easy
Iowa, Louisiana, South Dakota State or Wyoming* :W - Fairly easy
Alabama State: W - Easy
@Xavier: W - First real game, could go either way.
Florida* : L - I think this is the first loss. Only team on the schedule that
may be flat out better than us (along with WSU).
Missisippi State : W - Easy
@UCLA: W - No Lonso, no problem. This is not the same team we played.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: W - Easy
Cleveland State : W - Easy
Memphis : W - Easy
@Temple : W - Easy
SMU : W - Hard fought but I think they have lost a step and we are better.
@USF : W - Easy
@UCF : L - Have alot of respect for UCF and they should be better this year.
ECU : W - Easy
Temple : W - Easy
@Memphis : W - Easy
Houston : W - Easy
@UCONN : W - Easy
UCF : W - Hard fought win
@SMU : L - I don't think we beat them at home.
@Houston: W - easy
Wichita State : W - Could go either way.
UCONN : W - Easy
Tulsa : W - Easy
@Tulane : W - Easy
@Wichita State : L - Give them the benefit of the doubt at home.

27-4

I don't think we lose to UCLA, and im not giving on that.

Xavier, and WSU sweeping us are the keys. I think we split with UCF and SMU.

Worse case 25-6

If they lose more than 25 the coaching staff isn't doing there job, and I don't think that will be a problem. Team is too loaded to lose more than 25 with this schedule. No excuse to be losing to anyone else.

WSU might just flat out be better than us and sweep us. Not because were bad but because they are a final 4 team. Same with Florida, and less so with Xavier and maybe UCLA but I don't think so with them.

[cincyguy13]

Originally Posted by HExus

Savannah State : W - Easy
Western Carolina : W - Easy
Coppin State : W - Easy
Buffalo* : W - Easy
Richmond or UAB* : W - Easy
Iowa, Louisiana, South Dakota State or Wyoming* :W - Fairly easy
Alabama State: W - Easy
@Xavier: W - First real game, could go either way.
Florida* : L - I think this is the first loss. Only team on the schedule that
may be flat out better than us (along with WSU).
Missisippi State : W - Easy
@UCLA: W - No Lonso, no problem. This is not the same team we played.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: W - Easy
Cleveland State : W - Easy
Memphis : W - Easy
@Temple : W - Easy
SMU : W - Hard fought but I think they have lost a step and we are better.
@USF : W - Easy
@UCF : L - Have alot of respect for UCF and they should be better this year.
ECU : W - Easy
Temple : W - Easy
@Memphis : W - Easy
Houston : W - Easy
@UCONN : W - Easy
UCF : W - Hard fought win
@SMU : L - I don't think we beat them at home.
@Houston: W - easy
Wichita State : W - Could go either way.
UCONN : W - Easy
Tulsa : W - Easy
@Tulane : W - Easy
@Wichita State : L - Give them the benefit of the doubt at home.

27-4

I don't think we lose to UCLA, and im not giving on that.

Xavier, and WSU sweeping us are the keys. I think we split with UCF and SMU.

Worse case 25-6

If they lose more than 25 the coaching staff isn't doing there job, and I don't think that will be a problem. Team is too loaded to lose more than 25 with this schedule. No excuse to be losing to anyone else.

WSU might just flat out be better than us and sweep us. Not because were bad but because they are a final 4 team. Same with Florida, and less so with Xavier and maybe UCLA but I don't think so with them.

I think WSU is a little overrated. They didn't beat anyone last year (kinda like us), and the only reason people think they're great is because they almost beat U.K. (Big deal) I' m not saying they are a bad team but I don't think they are flat out better than us.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle

I feel like someone has posted before that the gap with us on the road and at home has been much larger than most teams.

I'm with you. Play your game. No need to be a drastically different team in certain situations.

In terms of shooting % per Team Rankings we were 13th at home and #4 in efficiency. 50.7% and 1.196. That is excellent!

On the road we were ranked around 300 or so I think in shooting % and 140 or so in efficiency. 40.5% and 1.002. Road shooting was abysmal.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by waterhead

In terms of shooting % per Team Rankings we were 13th at home and #4 in efficiency. 50.7% and 1.196. That is excellent!

On the road we were ranked around 300 or so I think in shooting % and 140 or so in efficiency. 40.5% and 1.002. Road shooting was abysmal.

If I'm not mistaken I think an average team was likely to shoot about 3 % points worse on the road than at home without actually doing all the calculations. We were a full 10 % points worse.

It would be hard to explain why our team, in particular, shot so good at home vs on the road. We may have been #1 in that gap without checking but I am sure we were top 10 in gap.

Perhaps it's because we slow it down too much on the road and we let the other team's D get set up on over 90% of possessions. Maybe we need some easier transition buckets from pushing pace. We shot about 6 points worse from 3 on the road and 11.5 points worse from 2.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by waterhead

If I'm not mistaken I think an average team was likely to shoot about 3 % points worse on the road than at home without actually doing all the calculations. We were a full 10 % points worse.

It would be hard to explain why our team, in particular, shot so good at home vs on the road. We may have been #1 in that gap without checking but I am sure we were top 10 in gap.

Perhaps it's because we slow it down too much on the road and we let the other team's D get set up on over 90% of possessions. Maybe we need some easier transition buckets from pushing pace. We shot about 6 points worse from 3 on the road and 11.5 points worse from 2.

I guess I might have overlooked the idea that we could play more OOC patsies at home than most teams which would pad our home stats. Obviously some of the buy game teams are going to play a lot of tough road games and then their home schedule could get easier. Some high major teams are playing tougher buy games and more of the other high major programs. It is probably a combination of a few factors.

[UCBearcats]

Originally Posted by waterhead

If we lose 7-8 games we probably aren't Cronin's best team. However, right now, I am not sure there will be a team in the country we can't beat with our versatility 1-5. We should have some of that great guard play that excels in March. We can also score from the paint (x2) and both our bigs can drain a 3 if necessary. We will play excellent D. There shouldn't bee too many matchups we can't deal with even if it's borderline criminal by the committee.

We will almost undoubtedly be under seeded by the committee and we may even face another under seeded team in the first weekend just for good measure. But it's time we let the committee know enough is enough and this is the team that will do it IMO.

If I am wrong...I will be happy to admit it...although maybe a bit jaded...lol!

Let's hope we only lose 2 or 3 games and make the committee have to give us an appropriate seed. With the teams we have scheduled and what I expect to be an improved RPI for the AAC the committee would have a hard time not seeding us high if we can end the season with 2-4 losses.

I think in terms of talent this will be Mick's best team yet. They have potential to be really special.