Reds/MLB

[jacobkdoyle]

Originally Posted by WAITE HOYT 2

Reds at 14-14 with the worst starting rotation in baseball.i hope sending Reed down affords him the opportunity to stretch out and pitch regularly in the rotation at Louisville. Really need to do the same thing with Stephenson. It really is sink or swim time with these two. Garrett has been better then I expected and Bailey has started a throwing program targeting the middle of June for a return. Adelman has pitched well enough to stay in rotation. All other spots are up for grabs.

I agree on Reed and I guess Stephenson...although my hope for him is rapidly dwindling.

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle

I agree on Reed and I guess Stephenson...although my hope for him is rapidly dwindling.

Both of these guys need to find the plate with a lot more consistency or head to the bull pen. Especially Stephenson. Went down to the game Monday night and the Reds won but Josh Harrison a UC grad hit 2 home runs. I coached him on a select team when he was about 13 years old. great lid and a wonderful family. He had a big series for the pirates.

[jacobkdoyle]

Originally Posted by WAITE HOYT 2

Both of these guys need to find the plate with a lot more consistency or head to the bull pen. Especially Stephenson. Went down to the game Monday night and the Reds won but Josh Harrison a UC grad hit 2 home runs. I coached him on a select team when he was about 13 years old. great lid and a wonderful family. He had a big series for the pirates.

Reed has had success everywhere but in the Reds rotation. He definitely needs to get over that hurdle. His first at bat to Schwarber to start the game a couple weeks ago sums it all up. 4 pitch walk. Immediately in a jam.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle

I agree on Reed and I guess Stephenson...although my hope for him is rapidly dwindling.

Sink or sink time for a 24 year old with 11 starts a little premature??

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Sink or sink time for a 24 year old with 11 starts a little premature??

If you can't throw strikes consistently in the majors leagues you have no shot at being successful. Both these guys have that issue. They have plenty of arm. I'm not advocating we give up on them but itst time they start taking steps forward.

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Arroyo goes 6 innings in another win. He doesn't look pretty but the team wins behind him. Peralta is becoming a monster. His change up is sic. He throws 97 and comes back with same arm motion and hits 83 mph. The reds are becoming a team that you better get on top of early or you may be heading for a loss. If they can get the rotation straightened out a wild card isn't out of the question. Almost a 1/4 of the way through the season and they are hanging in there. A huge key is can Billy Hamilton stay healthy and can he keep getting on base?

[jacobkdoyle]

Originally Posted by WAITE HOYT 2

Arroyo goes 6 innings in another win. He doesn't look pretty but the team wins behind him. Peralta is becoming a monster. His change up is sic. He throws 97 and comes back with same arm motion and hits 83 mph. The reds are becoming a team that you better get on top of early or you may be heading for a loss. If they can get the rotation straightened out a wild card isn't out of the question. Almost a 1/4 of the way through the season and they are hanging in there. A huge key is can Billy Hamilton stay healthy and can he keep getting on base?

Arroyo has been ok. I don't buy the team wins behind him stuff though...he still has a 5.94 ERA, 5.77 FIP, 73 ERA+ and hasn't gone more than 6 innings. Last time I checked he was also #1 in exit velocity against for SP. It's a miracle that he doesn't give up more runs honestly. I worry that a huge stinker could come any time. But for now, it's not like we have better options.

[jacobkdoyle]

Also, I like to add SB-CS to SLG% for guys like Hamilton. It's just so hard to gauge his value otherwise. For example, the other day he led off with a single...2 pitches later he was at 3rd. That doesn't get factored into anything but SB. So he'd have a .793 ops with my formula, instead of .671. it's not perfect but it helps show his value more appropriately imo. I know FanGraphs has been working on similar ways to take this all into account. Here's an article from RedReporter kind of breaking down wSB:

http://www.redreporter.com/2017/5/8/...he-stolen-base

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle

Arroyo has been ok. I don't buy the team wins behind him stuff though...he still has a 5.94 ERA, 5.77 FIP, 73 ERA+ and hasn't gone more than 6 innings. Last time I checked he was also #1 in exit velocity against for SP. It's a miracle that he doesn't give up more runs honestly. I worry that a huge stinker could come any time. But for now, it's not like we have better options.

They have won his last 5 starts. I agree with you though. More circumstantial then talent at this point in his career

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle

Also, I like to add SB-CS to SLG% for guys like Hamilton. It's just so hard to gauge his value otherwise. For example, the other day he led off with a single...2 pitches later he was at 3rd. That doesn't get factored into anything but SB. So he'd have a .793 ops with my formula, instead of .671. it's not perfect but it helps show his value more appropriately imo. I know FanGraphs has been working on similar ways to take this all into account. Here's an article from RedReporter kind of breaking down wSB:

http://www.redreporter.com/2017/5/8/...he-stolen-base

Jake it also doesn't factor in the pressure he applies to the defense and the pitcher. If he can continue to get on base at a exceptable rate he can have a huge impact on this teams offensive capabilities.