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View Poll Results: What seed will UC get?
1-2 9 14.52%
3 27 43.55%
4 15 24.19%
5 9 14.52%
6 2 3.23%
7 or worse 0 0%
Voters: 62. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-18-2018, 12:09 PM   #21
waterhead
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
TeamRankings simulates all remaining games and uses an algorithm to generate an S-curve. Currently they have us finishing at 26-5, good for #6 on the S-curve and a 2 seed. They also have Wichita as a 3, and SMU and Houston both as 9 seeds. They give UC an 86% chance to get a 4 seed or better.
There is no way in hell we are getting a 2 seed with 5 losses. Not happening. I am not sure it will happen with 4 losses. Maybe 3. This is probably strictly a stats based projection which is fine...I understand.

The good thing is the committee will look at column 1 and 2 wins and they like wins away from home. If we beat WSU at home we will only have 1 column 1 home win and the rest will be away from home. That's an advantage.

If the committee is doing their homework they will also know we don't have any true home games. I think our home games should be put somewhere between home and neutral...even if closer to home. But I doubt we get that sort of benefit.

I think we need 4 losses or less to ensure a protected seed. I think 5 puts us on the outside.
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:23 PM   #22
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The good thing is the committee will look at column 1 and 2 wins and they like wins away from home. If we beat WSU at home we will only have 1 column 1 home win and the rest will be away from home. That's an advantage.
The new group format accounts for home/away already. I don't think we'll earn any bonus points for away Group 1 wins.

We're one of only six teams in the country with at least four Group 1 wins and no losses outside of Group 1.
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:24 PM   #23
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Bracketmatrix has Cincy as the third #5 seed. THOUGH, as you all know, it takes time to update across the board, and it currently has us behind: ASU, UK, Seton Hall, etc that we clearly are a step ahead of as of today.

I think if today was selection sunday, we're a 4 seed.

If we manage to go 17-1 in AAC play, I think we're in heavy discussion for a 2 seed. If we go to the AAC final, we have 16 games remaining. 29-5 would be 4 seed IMO, anything better, hard to not give us a 2/3 seed.

For what its worth, 32-2 would be a 1 seed.
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:27 PM   #24
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The new group format accounts for home/away already. I don't think we'll earn any bonus points for away Group 1 wins.

We're one of only six teams in the country with at least four Group 1 wins and no losses outside of Group 1.
Sure but projections are we will lose at least two of our group 1 wins by end of season because they will fall in RPI. I love the fact we haven't lost at home or had a bad loss in over two years. Gessuz...that is good stuff!!!
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:32 PM   #25
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Bracketmatrix has Cincy as the third #5 seed. THOUGH, as you all know, it takes time to update across the board, and it currently has us behind: ASU, UK, Seton Hall, etc that we clearly are a step ahead of as of today.

I think if today was selection sunday, we're a 4 seed.

If we manage to go 17-1 in AAC play, I think we're in heavy discussion for a 2 seed. If we go to the AAC final, we have 16 games remaining. 29-5 would be 4 seed IMO, anything better, hard to not give us a 2/3 seed.

For what its worth, 32-2 would be a 1 seed.
I think if we beat ECU we should be in the 4 seed range with the rest of the losses going on this week. From there I think we can stay in the 4 seed range with 2 more losses and move up with only 1 more loss or move down with 3 more losses.

I think our tourney seed is going to be very very very close to our total number of regular season losses.
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:36 PM   #26
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Sure but projections are we will lose at least two of our group 1 wins by end of season because they will fall in RPI.
This is why I don't like deterministic projections. One of those teams is UCF, who Warren Nolan projects at 16-14. Kenpom has them at 18-12. The other is Temple, who Warren Nolan has at 13-17. Kenpom has them at 15-15. Those two extra wins for each could allow them to finish top 75.
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:43 PM   #27
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This is why I don't like deterministic projections. One of those teams is UCF, who Warren Nolan projects at 16-14. Kenpom has them at 18-12. The other is Temple, who Warren Nolan has at 13-17. Kenpom has them at 15-15. Those two extra wins for each could allow them to finish top 75.
I agree with you. UCF is a wild card with Taylor back. Who knows what Temple is going to do. The stat prediction is they won't be there...but there is a lot more to it than stats.
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:45 PM   #28
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I agree with you. UCF is a wild card with Taylor back. Who knows what Temple is going to do. The stat prediction is they won't be there...but there is a lot more to it than stats.
I think we have to start with the stats based evidence and then determine as fans who we think aren't well represented by them. UCF getting Taylor back is a huge factor. SMU losing Foster would be another huge factor.

Last edited by waterhead; 01-18-2018 at 12:48 PM.
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:51 PM   #29
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The stat prediction is they won't be there...
What I'm trying to say is there are different stat predictions, and Kenpom is superior. It's fair to say that one stat prediction has two of our current Group 1 wins falling out, but not stat projections in general. BJ Taylor's return isn't factored into either one.
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Old 01-18-2018, 01:13 PM   #30
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What I'm trying to say is there are different stat predictions, and Kenpom is superior. It's fair to say that one stat prediction has two of our current Group 1 wins falling out, but not stat projections in general. BJ Taylor's return isn't factored into either one.
Stat projections are just that. They are predictive but not reality.

Obviously things like Taylor returning is not factored in. Neither is a Jarrey Foster or Gilbert getting injured. So we move a team up or down a bit. We really have no clue other than predictive stats and then giving each team a bump or a minus from there based on what we as fans know.

In the end I don't think the stats based predictions will be TOO far off. One team can do better and another could do worse.
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