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View Poll Results: What seed will UC get? | |||
1-2 | 9 | 14.52% | |
3 | 27 | 43.55% | |
4 | 15 | 24.19% | |
5 | 9 | 14.52% | |
6 | 2 | 3.23% | |
7 or worse | 0 | 0% | |
Voters: 62. You may not vote on this poll |
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01-23-2018, 08:01 AM | #121 |
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It's interesting to see the difference between voter polls and Bracket Matrix in how it relates to preferred conferences.
Specifically Clemson and Auburn. These are not two blue blood brand names (in basketball). They are ranked 17 and 18 in the AP but are listed as 3 seeds in Bracket Matrix. Their AP rank would "suggest" a 5 seed. UC ranked 9th is listed as a 4 seed but they are closing in on a "suggested" 2 seed. I think Auburn moved up a seed after a week which included a loss and Clemson stayed put with a loss. Meanwhile we moved up 1 spot over...you guessed it...WSU. Auburn jumped us with a loss and picked up no big wins. |
01-23-2018, 09:25 AM | #122 | |
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Coincidentally enough, Auburn has lost to Temple and does not have any major wins as far as media goes, but 4 Quadrant 1 wins. They're definitely a team to monitor that will be fighting UC for a seed line. Other teams I now track: UNC (lost last night) OSU (won last night) Oklahoma Arizona West Virginia (lost last night) Texas Tech Tennessee Florida |
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01-23-2018, 10:01 AM | #123 |
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As of right now, Auburn is 3-2 in Group 1, but two of those games (Temple, at Miss St) are projected to fall out of Group 1. They have six expected Group 1 games left on the schedule though. I think Auburn has a slightly better resume than we do at the moment.
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01-23-2018, 10:03 AM | #124 |
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Arkansas fell from 30 to 32 this morning, so that is on the border of a quadrant 1 win.
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01-23-2018, 10:07 AM | #125 |
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Yep, and Miss St is at 75, exactly on the cut line. Temple is at 46, just barely in. At least according to rpiforecast, none of those three teams will end up in Group 1 though.
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01-23-2018, 10:20 AM | #126 |
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Looking at the other 4 seeds on bracketmatrix. I think we have a better resume than Arizona. We're both 4-2 in Group 1, and we both have some wins toward the bottom of that Group that are in danger of falling out. However, Arizona has a pair of Group 2 losses, where we are clean so far.
I also think we're ahead of Ohio St. They have just a single Group 1 win, which is at the bottom of the Group. They are an impressive 8-1 in Group 2, but I don't think that overcomes our four Group 1 wins. I would put us about even with Texas Tech. They are 3-3 in Group 1, but with some better wins within the Group than ours. That's balanced out by their Group 2 loss. As previously mentioned, I think we're below Auburn, the worst 3 seed. So by my estimation we're 13-14 on the S curve right now. |
01-23-2018, 10:25 AM | #127 | |
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01-23-2018, 10:26 AM | #128 | |
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01-23-2018, 10:44 AM | #129 |
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RPI forecast says we have an 82%-95% chance against 8 of our next 12 opponents. 7 of 8 is 87.5%. Probability would say we probably lose 1. The remaining 4 games are between 46% and 68% so probability would say we probably lose 2...since winning 3 of 4 is 75%.
If we are going to get a protected seed...I think we will have to win up until the point we play @ SMU and @ Hou. We will need to take one of those games. Then we need to win the home game vs WSU. We are going to have a target on our back the whole time. It's not going to be easy. We play away on SR night the last two games against WSU and Tulane. If we can manage 2 losses or less I think we have a protected seed without a doubt. If we lose any more...we may need some help. Make no mistake 2 more losses (or less) would be a GREAT finish! 3 more losses would not be embarrassing but not sure if we can ensure a protected seed that way. Last edited by waterhead; 01-23-2018 at 10:50 AM. |
01-25-2018, 09:31 AM | #130 |
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Blind resume test:
Team A: 4-2 Group 1, 3-0 Group 2, no bad losses Team B: 4-2 Group 1, 3-0 Group 2, no bad losses |
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