NTS-ology

Bearcat_NTS · 02-19-2017, 08:12 PM

First one of the season. Selection Sunday just 3 weeks away. This is primarily metric based. This is as of the games played today. The projected conference winner is the one that is highest in my ratings.

Last 4 in: Clemson, California, Seton Hall, TCU
First 4 out: Marquette, Georgetown, Syracuse, Rhode Island
Next 4 out: Providence, Alabama, Pittsburgh, Illinois (YUCK)

Oddities: Wisconsin is really low. Florida, Xavier, Middle Tennessee are really high

Notes: It is one of the stronger group of 13, 14 and 15 seeds I've seen. Obviously there will be upsets in the conference tournaments but if it holds we could see some nice upsets.

1 SEEDS:
Villanova (Big East)
Kansas (Big 12)
Gonzaga (WCC)
North Carolina (ACC)

2 SEEDS:
Baylor
Louisville
Kentucky (SEC)
Florida

3 SEEDS:
Oregon (PAC 12)
Duke
Arizona
Florida State

4 SEEDS:
Virginia
Butler
Purdue (Big 10)
Cincinnati (American)

5 SEEDS:
UCLA
West Virginia
Creighton
St. Mary's

6 SEEDS:
Maryland
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Xavier

7 SEEDS:
SMU
Oklahoma State
Minnesota
South Carolina

8 SEEDS:
VCU (Atlantic 10)
Northwestern
Arkansas
Dayton

9 SEEDS:
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA)
Iowa State
Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
Virginia Tech

10 SEEDS:
USC
Wake Forest
Michigan State
Illinois State

11 SEEDS:
Miami-FL
Michigan
Clemson/Seton Hall
California/TCU

12 SEEDS:
Kansas State
UT-Arlington (Sun Belt)
UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
Nevada (MWC)

13 SEEDS:
Vermont (America East)
Monmouth (MAAC)
Princeton (Ivy)
Belmont (OVC)

14 SEEDS:
New Mexico State (WAC)
Akron (MAC)
East Tennessee State (Southern)
Bucknell (Patriot)

15 SEEDS:
UNC-Asheville (Big South)
Florida Gulf Coast (ASun)
Valpariso (Horizon)
North Dakota State (Summit)

16 SEEDS:
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
UC-Irvine (Big West)/Mount St. Mary's (NEC)
New Orleans (SInd)/ North Carolina Central (MEAC)

TANEYTOWN · 02-19-2017, 08:27 PM

What has Kentucky done?

TANEYTOWN · 02-19-2017, 08:27 PM

West Virginia as a 5 is flat out nuts. And won't happen.

cincyguy13 · 02-19-2017, 08:30 PM

I would like to avoid UCLA. Don't know if we can score with them. But they don't play any defense so maybe we can. Only one of the 4/5s I would want to avoid

Garybearcat · 02-19-2017, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat_NTS

First one of the season. Selection Sunday just 3 weeks away. This is primarily metric based. This is as of the games played today. The projected conference winner is the one that is highest in my ratings.

Last 4 in: Clemson, California, Seton Hall, TCU
First 4 out: Marquette, Georgetown, Syracuse, Rhode Island
Next 4 out: Providence, Alabama, Pittsburgh, Illinois (YUCK)

Oddities: Wisconsin is really low. Florida, Xavier, Middle Tennessee are really high

Notes: It is one of the stronger group of 13, 14 and 15 seeds I've seen. Obviously there will be upsets in the conference tournaments but if it holds we could see some nice upsets.

1 SEEDS:
Villanova (Big East)
Kansas (Big 12)
Gonzaga (WCC)
North Carolina (ACC)

2 SEEDS:
Baylor
Louisville
Kentucky (SEC)
Florida

3 SEEDS:
Oregon (PAC 12)
Duke
Arizona
Florida State

4 SEEDS:
Virginia
Butler
Purdue (Big 10)
Cincinnati (American)

5 SEEDS:
UCLA
West Virginia
Creighton
St. Mary's

6 SEEDS:
Maryland
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Xavier

7 SEEDS:
SMU
Oklahoma State
Minnesota
South Carolina

8 SEEDS:
VCU (Atlantic 10)
Northwestern
Arkansas
Dayton

9 SEEDS:
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA)
Iowa State
Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
Virginia Tech

10 SEEDS:
USC
Wake Forest
Michigan State
Illinois State

11 SEEDS:
Miami-FL
Michigan
Clemson/Seton Hall
California/TCU

12 SEEDS:
Kansas State
UT-Arlington (Sun Belt)
UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
Nevada (MWC)

13 SEEDS:
Vermont (America East)
Monmouth (MAAC)
Princeton (Ivy)
Belmont (OVC)

14 SEEDS:
New Mexico State (WAC)
Akron (MAC)
East Tennessee State (Southern)
Bucknell (Patriot)

15 SEEDS:
UNC-Asheville (Big South)
Florida Gulf Coast (ASun)
Valpariso (Horizon)
North Dakota State (Summit)

16 SEEDS:
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
UC-Irvine (Big West)/Mount St. Mary's (NEC)
New Orleans (SInd)/ North Carolina Central (MEAC)

Nice work!
Seems pretty accurate.

- Michigan St is in danger of dropping out of tourney especially with injury today to top 3 point shooter. They need deep run in Big Ten tourney and only 1 more loss in regular season.

- Xavier should be in danger, but is being saved by RPI. They would have to lose 2 to 3 more regular season games and a loss to bad team in Big East tourney to miss NCAA tourney.

cincyguy13 · 02-19-2017, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TANEYTOWN

What has Kentucky done?

They did beat a 1 seed. Other then that not much, but that isn't bad

TANEYTOWN · 02-19-2017, 08:33 PM

WVU has a way better resume. I'm sorry UK has been beyond poor against anyone with a pulse.

cincyguy13 · 02-19-2017, 08:49 PM

I don't get the saint Mary's thing. Their best win is Dayton and byu and they lost to tx-Arlington

2bearcatdad · 02-19-2017, 08:53 PM

Looks pretty good.

I agree with some others about WV. Huge difference for them between RPI and KenPom. In the end, I think they'll be higher than you show them.

I think X will lose 2 more in the regular season and I can't imagine them making much noise in their tourney. I think they'll be a 7 or even an 8.

I hope you're right about UC. I'm worried since we weren't a 4 seed before the SMU loss. If we win the conference tournament I think we'll be a 4. Otherwise I think we're a 5 (barring a bad loss).

TANEYTOWN · 02-19-2017, 08:56 PM

I'd love UC to get a 4. They won't. As committee has shown over and over they hate the AAC. WVU is 3rd in Kenpon. They'll be a 3 at worse a 4.

02-19-2017, 08:12 PM	#1
Bearcat_NTS Epic Member Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: #DumpMick Posts: 7,333	NTS-ology First one of the season. Selection Sunday just 3 weeks away. This is primarily metric based. This is as of the games played today. The projected conference winner is the one that is highest in my ratings. Last 4 in: Clemson, California, Seton Hall, TCU First 4 out: Marquette, Georgetown, Syracuse, Rhode Island Next 4 out: Providence, Alabama, Pittsburgh, Illinois (YUCK) Oddities: Wisconsin is really low. Florida, Xavier, Middle Tennessee are really high Notes: It is one of the stronger group of 13, 14 and 15 seeds I've seen. Obviously there will be upsets in the conference tournaments but if it holds we could see some nice upsets. 1 SEEDS: Villanova (Big East) Kansas (Big 12) Gonzaga (WCC) North Carolina (ACC) 2 SEEDS: Baylor Louisville Kentucky (SEC) Florida 3 SEEDS: Oregon (PAC 12) Duke Arizona Florida State 4 SEEDS: Virginia Butler Purdue (Big 10) Cincinnati (American) 5 SEEDS: UCLA West Virginia Creighton St. Mary's 6 SEEDS: Maryland Notre Dame Wisconsin Xavier 7 SEEDS: SMU Oklahoma State Minnesota South Carolina 8 SEEDS: VCU (Atlantic 10) Northwestern Arkansas Dayton 9 SEEDS: Middle Tennessee (Conference USA) Iowa State Wichita State (Missouri Valley) Virginia Tech 10 SEEDS: USC Wake Forest Michigan State Illinois State 11 SEEDS: Miami-FL Michigan Clemson/Seton Hall California/TCU 12 SEEDS: Kansas State UT-Arlington (Sun Belt) UNC-Wilmington (CAA) Nevada (MWC) 13 SEEDS: Vermont (America East) Monmouth (MAAC) Princeton (Ivy) Belmont (OVC) 14 SEEDS: New Mexico State (WAC) Akron (MAC) East Tennessee State (Southern) Bucknell (Patriot) 15 SEEDS: UNC-Asheville (Big South) Florida Gulf Coast (ASun) Valpariso (Horizon) North Dakota State (Summit) 16 SEEDS: Texas Southern (SWAC) Eastern Washington (Big Sky) UC-Irvine (Big West)/Mount St. Mary's (NEC) New Orleans (SInd)/ North Carolina Central (MEAC)

02-19-2017, 08:27 PM	#2
TANEYTOWN Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 128	What has Kentucky done?

02-19-2017, 08:30 PM	#4
cincyguy13 Epic Member Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 4,633	I would like to avoid UCLA. Don't know if we can score with them. But they don't play any defense so maybe we can. Only one of the 4/5s I would want to avoid

02-19-2017, 08:33 PM	#7
TANEYTOWN Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 128	WVU has a way better resume. I'm sorry UK has been beyond poor against anyone with a pulse.

02-19-2017, 08:49 PM	#8
cincyguy13 Epic Member Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 4,633	I don't get the saint Mary's thing. Their best win is Dayton and byu and they lost to tx-Arlington

02-19-2017, 08:53 PM	#9
2bearcatdad Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 421	Looks pretty good. I agree with some others about WV. Huge difference for them between RPI and KenPom. In the end, I think they'll be higher than you show them. I think X will lose 2 more in the regular season and I can't imagine them making much noise in their tourney. I think they'll be a 7 or even an 8. I hope you're right about UC. I'm worried since we weren't a 4 seed before the SMU loss. If we win the conference tournament I think we'll be a 4. Otherwise I think we're a 5 (barring a bad loss).

02-19-2017, 08:56 PM	#10
TANEYTOWN Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 128	I'd love UC to get a 4. They won't. As committee has shown over and over they hate the AAC. WVU is 3rd in Kenpon. They'll be a 3 at worse a 4.