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View Poll Results: What seed will UC get?
1-2 9 14.52%
3 27 43.55%
4 15 24.19%
5 9 14.52%
6 2 3.23%
7 or worse 0 0%
Voters: 62. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-18-2018, 09:30 AM   #11
sedziobs
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Reposting an earlier comment that is relevant here.

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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Warren Nolan's site has automated team sheets, separating the schedule into the four RPI groups. The Bearcats' team sheet is here: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...eam=Cincinnati

There is also a "Predicted Team Sheet" that gives us a total of five Group 1 wins at the end of the season. However, the predictions are deterministic, meaning the most likely result of each individual game is used. The deterministic approach has UC going 28-3 with the only loss at Wichita. Kenpom uses probabilistic predictions, which give us a 26-5 record.

Just to clarify further for non-nerds: say we play 10 games with a 60% chance of winning each. Our deterministic predicted record is 10-0. The probabilistic prediction is 6-4. Determinism gives poor forecasts, so it is likely that the RPIs in Warren Nolan's predicted team sheet will look quite different. It's still an interesting way to get a feel for what our resume may show in March.
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Old 01-18-2018, 09:33 AM   #12
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A breakdown of 15 teams to root for. I am listing current RPI, followed by projected RPI, followed by current Kenpom. I am only listing potential column 1 and column 2 chances.


Teams we have lost to...

Eggs away...5...6...16 (no danger in moving out of column 1)
FLA neutral...36...27...25 (no danger in moving out of column 1)

OOC teams we beat...

Buffalo...29...25...76 (big disparity here between RPI and Kenpom)...but root root root. They need to finish top 50 rpi for a neutral column 1 win.
UCLA...49...59...51 (We just need them to stay top 75 for column 1)
Miss St...75...77...71 (They are on the bubble of top 75 column 2 home win...we need to root for this team)
Wyoming...88...122...124 (we need them to be top 100 for neutral column 2 win)

Rest of conference play...

WSU...28...18...15 (We need them to stay top 30 RPI for 2 column 1 games)
SMU...59...35...32 (without Foster I don't think they can reach column 1 home win but no danger of dropping from column 1 away and column 2 home games)
Houston...56...45...44 (they aren't getting in column 1 home and in no danger of moving from column 1 away or column 2 home game)

Temple...50...93...94 (we need them top 75 to get a column 1 away win and column 2 home win)
UCF...60...108...83 (ditto to Temple...with Taylor back they might have a chance)

Tulane...105...137...128 ( we need them top 135 for a column 2 away game)
Uconn...93...106...157 (ditto to Tulane but we play Uconn twice)
Memphis...83...129...142 (ditto to above and we play them twice)


No other team on our schedule has a real opportunity right now to move into column 1 or 2.
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Old 01-18-2018, 09:37 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
A breakdown of 15 teams to root for. I am listing current RPI, followed by projected RPI, followed by current Kenpom. I am only listing potential column 1 and column 2 chances.


Teams we have lost to...

Eggs away...5...6...16 (no danger in moving out of column 1)
FLA neutral...36...27...25 (no danger in moving out of column 1)

OOC teams we beat...

Buffalo...29...25...76 (big disparity here between RPI and Kenpom)...but root root root. They need to finish top 50 rpi for a neutral column 1 win.
UCLA...49...59...51 (We just need them to stay top 75 for column 1)
Miss St...75...77...71 (They are on the bubble of top 75 column 2 home win...we need to root for this team)
Wyoming...88...122...124 (we need them to be top 100 for neutral column 2 win)

Rest of conference play...

WSU...28...18...15 (We need them to stay top 30 RPI for 2 column 1 games)
SMU...59...35...32 (without Foster I don't think they can reach column 1 home win but no danger of dropping from column 1 away and column 2 home games)
Houston...56...45...44 (they aren't getting in column 1 home and in no danger of moving from column 1 away or column 2 home game)

Temple...50...93...94 (we need them top 75 to get a column 1 away win and column 2 home win)
UCF...60...108...83 (ditto to Temple...with Taylor back they might have a chance)

Tulane...105...137...128 ( we need them top 135 for a column 2 away game)
Uconn...93...106...157 (ditto to Tulane but we play Uconn twice)
Memphis...83...129...142 (ditto to above and we play them twice)


No other team on our schedule has a real opportunity right now to move into column 1 or 2.
I said a list of 15 teams to root for. UC was not on that list but is obviously #1. #24 current RPI, #13 projected RPI, #7 current Kenpom.
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Old 01-18-2018, 09:54 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
A breakdown of 15 teams to root for. I am listing current RPI, followed by projected RPI, followed by current Kenpom. I am only listing potential column 1 and column 2 chances.
Thanks, this is a great summary.

Just a suggestion, but I think it's easier to read threads if when quoting a long post, you cut out everything but one or two relevant sentences. Anyone who wishes to read the entire quoted post can simply click the little arrow next to the name at the top.
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Old 01-18-2018, 09:57 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle View Post
Wrong thread!!!
I think you are right...but trying to figure out how this all ties in. Obviously our ranking is going to influence our seed and who we root for etc.

We have a thread for Bracketology, games of importance, stats/rankings, around the country, around the AAC etc.

Some of these seem to mix together and some seem to be superfluous. I was trying to figure out where to put it but didn't want to double post. Can we consolidate threads? IDK.
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Old 01-18-2018, 09:57 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Thanks, this is a great summary.

Just a suggestion, but I think it's easier to read threads if when quoting a long post, you cut out everything but one or two relevant sentences. Anyone who wishes to read the entire quoted post can simply click the little arrow next to the name at the top.
LOL...okay my bad
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Old 01-18-2018, 10:05 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
I think you are right...but trying to figure out how this all ties in. Obviously our ranking is going to influence our seed and who we root for etc.

We have a thread for Bracketology, games of importance, stats/rankings, around the country, around the AAC etc.

Some of these seem to mix together and some seem to be superfluous. I was trying to figure out where to put it but didn't want to double post. Can we consolidate threads? IDK.
Haha I think we need them all.

Around the AAC - American carch-all. Can be scores, stories, coaching stuff, standings, anything

Around the Country - same as above but on the National scene

Games of Importance - This may overlap but is also just specific to our schedule.

2017-18 Stats/Rankings - Maybe we can remove the "Rankings" part and add it to Bracketology?

Bracketology - obvious
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Old 01-18-2018, 10:13 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobkdoyle View Post
Games of Importance - This may overlap but is also just specific to our schedule.

2017-18 Stats/Rankings - Maybe we can remove the "Rankings" part and add it to Bracketology?

Bracketology - obvious
I view the bracketology thread as a place to make and analyze seeding predictions. Rankings are their own animal, and more of a prestige and "what have you done for me lately?" analysis. But as long as we have good discussions going on, I'm not too concerned about where they happen.
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Old 01-18-2018, 11:04 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I view the bracketology thread as a place to make and analyze seeding predictions. Rankings are their own animal, and more of a prestige and "what have you done for me lately?" analysis. But as long as we have good discussions going on, I'm not too concerned about where they happen.
Yeah agree. I was just messing with waterhead telling him wrong thread. Each of these threads have a bit of a Venn diagram thing going on but I'm fine with that.
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Old 01-18-2018, 11:33 AM   #20
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TeamRankings simulates all remaining games and uses an algorithm to generate an S-curve. Currently they have us finishing at 26-5, good for #6 on the S-curve and a 2 seed. They also have Wichita as a 3, and SMU and Houston both as 9 seeds. They give UC an 86% chance to get a 4 seed or better.
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