Go Back   BearcatTalk.com > Cincinnati Basketball > Bearcat Basketball

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-10-2017, 12:42 PM   #41
david aka the TYZ
Epic Member
 
david aka the TYZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Mason area
Posts: 3,086
david aka the TYZ will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
I would expect Cumberland to improve even on late season numbers simply by virtue of being more confident that he is a top option. Even if he did not improve over the last month of the season (which would include about 9 games) I would be very happy with that type of production.

Last 9 games he played about 25 minutes and averaged around 11.5 PPG. Carry that out to 30-32 minutes and he would be around 14-15 PPG. I think we would all take that in his sophomore campaign given we will have 4 other scoring options on the court.

The jury is out on Broome and how our chemistry will look but I don't see Cronin letting selfishness become an issue for any player. Not when we have so many good options to score. If he is selfish I could see Cronin using Jenifer to prove a point. That could be Jenifer's ticket to more playing time if he focuses on pushing pace, low turnover, and distributing rather than looking to be a score first PG.

Either way...we have options and the bench will always be a powerful tool in Cronin's arsenal.
I agree on all this. My only point on Cumberland in terms of this team being better than last years is just because he's starting doesn't mean we see 30 minutes of production we didn't get from last year's team, it's closer to 5-6 minutes. So realistically that's not a dramatic difference. And KJ's defense could easily be argued to make up the 4 points more a game more he'll score. I think Cumberland will play stronger and smarter than his late season push but I also think defenses will be planning for him as well. And who knows if he can stay out of foul trouble in an increased workload. Refs like to call fouls early in a game to establish things. That means the starters can see a little tighter game called. Cumberland's defense improved as the season went on (he was lost some the first half of the year) but he was always prone to fouling. Definitely needs to eliminate the offensive fouls.
david aka the TYZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2017, 01:04 PM   #42
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
waterhead is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by david aka the TYZ View Post
I agree on all this. My only point on Cumberland in terms of this team being better than last years is just because he's starting doesn't mean we see 30 minutes of production we didn't get from last year's team, it's closer to 5-6 minutes. So realistically that's not a dramatic difference. And KJ's defense could easily be argued to make up the 4 points more a game more he'll score. I think Cumberland will play stronger and smarter than his late season push but I also think defenses will be planning for him as well. And who knows if he can stay out of foul trouble in an increased workload. Refs like to call fouls early in a game to establish things. That means the starters can see a little tighter game called. Cumberland's defense improved as the season went on (he was lost some the first half of the year) but he was always prone to fouling. Definitely needs to eliminate the offensive fouls.
Yes I understand...but we have to look at this from a standpoint of plus/minus. I wish I had those stats. Just because we are only gaining 5-6 minutes does not mean the differential will be the same when Cumberland and KJ were in the game at different times. The plus minus could be +10PPG for all we know.

For some reason Cronin thought we needed Cumberland in the game late in the season and late in games. I assume it was because we played better as a team when he was in there in terms of scoring differential. I could be wrong. I don't really care if the defense is a little worse if the scoring differential is better.

As for the defense planning against him...we should have a lot of players to game plan for making it harder for any defense to plan against any single player. You can't game plan for Cumberland as much when you have to game plan for all 5 starters.

Obviously there are no plus minus stats for Broome vs Caupain but there are stats available somewhere for Cumberland vs KJ. There used to be a site called StatSheet to tell us those plus minus stats...but someone has to have them...and I'm sure Cronin has access.
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2017, 01:25 PM   #43
cincyguy13
Epic Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 4,633
cincyguy13 is on a distinguished road
We haven't had a guy like cumberland since SK. Guy that wants the ball and tries to score or do something every time he touches the ball. I think that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Can't wait
cincyguy13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2017, 01:30 PM   #44
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
waterhead is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
Yes I understand...but we have to look at this from a standpoint of plus/minus. I wish I had those stats. Just because we are only gaining 5-6 minutes does not mean the differential will be the same when Cumberland and KJ were in the game at different times. The plus minus could be +10PPG for all we know.

For some reason Cronin thought we needed Cumberland in the game late in the season and late in games. I assume it was because we played better as a team when he was in there in terms of scoring differential. I could be wrong. I don't really care if the defense is a little worse if the scoring differential is better.

As for the defense planning against him...we should have a lot of players to game plan for making it harder for any defense to plan against any single player. You can't game plan for Cumberland as much when you have to game plan for all 5 starters.

Obviously there are no plus minus stats for Broome vs Caupain but there are stats available somewhere for Cumberland vs KJ. There used to be a site called StatSheet to tell us those plus minus stats...but someone has to have them...and I'm sure Cronin has access.
Just ask yourself where the offense would have come from if Cumberland were not being aggressive late in the season and we had to rely on KJ to help the offense score points or even help facilitate the offense. In some instances Cumberland was our best option late in the season to get the offense to score whether from him scoring himself or assisting other players. KJ, throughout his career, was a stall point on offense....even if his D was very good.

Again, I don't have the plus minus stats...KJ's plus minus could have been better overall...but I highly doubt it. And the fact Cumberland kept getting more and more minutes would seem to suggest he was the better overall option. Now...take KJ out of the picture and insert Jarron for the whole game and season and it could be a very dramatic change. Not just 5-6 minutes of change...but 30 minutes of better basketball all together.

It's kind of like what happened when Evans replaced Thomas IMO. The difference was major! Now Cumberland is not like Evans on D but the point remains the same for me overall.

Last edited by waterhead; 04-10-2017 at 01:32 PM.
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2017, 03:53 PM   #45
david aka the TYZ
Epic Member
 
david aka the TYZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Mason area
Posts: 3,086
david aka the TYZ will become famous soon enough
Well you had KJ for 25 minutes and Cumberland for 25 minutes. Now you'll have Cumberland for 30 and those other 20 minutes might be split between Jenifer, Williams and T. Moore. So it's not a matter of straight Cumberland vs. KJ.
david aka the TYZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2017, 11:03 PM   #46
Jon Rycek
Epic Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 2,183
Jon Rycek is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by david aka the TYZ View Post
Well you had KJ for 25 minutes and Cumberland for 25 minutes. Now you'll have Cumberland for 30 and those other 20 minutes might be split between Jenifer, Williams and T. Moore. So it's not a matter of straight Cumberland vs. KJ.
I think Cumberland only averaged 19 minutes a game
Jon Rycek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2017, 08:14 AM   #47
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
waterhead is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by david aka the TYZ View Post
Well you had KJ for 25 minutes and Cumberland for 25 minutes. Now you'll have Cumberland for 30 and those other 20 minutes might be split between Jenifer, Williams and T. Moore. So it's not a matter of straight Cumberland vs. KJ.
Valid point. Hopefully Cumberland is ready for 35 minutes per game in the closer and bigger games because Evans will be. If Cumberland can get 35 then we just need to figure out where 10 minutes go between he and Evans. Jarron will have to get himself in shape in the off season to be ready for that type of role.

I hope Williams can give us quality minutes at the 2 and 3 back up. Maybe we won't redshirt Moore for depth reasons. If Moore's role is purely a shooter we don't need to redshirt him for development reasons. Hopefully he can D it up because he should be able to shoot a higher % than KJ. We can run Jenifer at point and slide Broome over to the SG as well...depending on who gives us the best minutes either at PG or wing...or a combination of all 3 (Jenifer, Moore, and Williams) depending on the situation or matchups.

We should have options.

Last edited by waterhead; 04-11-2017 at 08:17 AM.
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2017, 08:17 AM   #48
#BearcatNation
Epic Member
 
#BearcatNation's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,120
#BearcatNation is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon Rycek View Post
I think Cumberland only averaged 19 minutes a game
19 minutes to KJ's 29 minutes...they most certainly were not even last season. Excited to see how Cumberland plays in 28-30 min/game.
#BearcatNation is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2017, 08:28 AM   #49
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
waterhead is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by #BearcatNation View Post
19 minutes to KJ's 29 minutes...they most certainly were not even last season. Excited to see how Cumberland plays in 28-30 min/game.
On the year yes. But the last month of the season Cumberland was getting 25 minutes and he was one of our most productive perimeter players if not THE most. If he was ready for 25 minutes at end of season he might be ready for 30-35 "when it counts" with another year working on slimming down a bit.

My focus would be on close games. How many minutes will Cumberland get in those games? I don't care if he only gets 20 minutes in blowouts. The yearly average will be lower than big games or games that are too close for comfort.

Evans probably averaged 25 minutes in games with comfortable leads but got 35+ sometimes when the games were close. They key question IMO is how many back up minutes will we need at different positions when games are close.

Last edited by waterhead; 04-11-2017 at 08:34 AM.
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2017, 08:49 AM   #50
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
waterhead is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
On the year yes. But the last month of the season Cumberland was getting 25 minutes and he was one of our most productive perimeter players if not THE most. If he was ready for 25 minutes at end of season he might be ready for 30-35 "when it counts" with another year working on slimming down a bit.

My focus would be on close games. How many minutes will Cumberland get in those games? I don't care if he only gets 20 minutes in blowouts. The yearly average will be lower than big games or games that are too close for comfort.

Evans probably averaged 25 minutes in games with comfortable leads but got 35+ sometimes when the games were close. They key question IMO is how many back up minutes will we need at different positions when games are close.
If we break down Cumberland's minutes into 3 parts of the season it looks like this.

First 12 games...14.5 minutes
Next 12 games...19.5 minutes
Last 11 games...24 minutes

Clearly Cronin saw the value in Cumberland as time went on. With KJ out...I could see that progression continuing to 30 or even 35 minutes (in close games) if he can handle it. It would be nice if we had some quality minutes coming from other players of course just in case.
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd., - All material on this Cincinnati Bearcat discussion forum is strictly for entertainment purposes only. This site and any pages within are in no way affiliated with the University of Cincinnati. Any images, copyrights, or trademarks used on this site are used under the "Fair Use Provision" of the Copyright Act for purposes of comment, criticism, and news reporting.