Predictions for 2nd Half of Conference Play
 

We're officially at the halfway point of AAC play. Our 8-1 conference record at the very least has met the expectations of most fans and probably has exceeded the expectations of several others.

However we are looking at a very tough slate of games to come.

Thurs. 2/7 - @Memphis (Q1)
Sun. 2/10 - @Houston (Q1)
Sun. 2/17 - Wichita State (Q3)
Thurs. 2/21 - UCF (Q2)
Sun. 2/24 - @UConn (Q1)
Wed. 2/27 - @SMU (Q2)
Sat. 3/2 - Memphis (Q2)
Thurs. 3/7 - @UCF (Q1)
Sun. 3/10 - Houston (Q1)

Here are everyone's predictions from just over a month ago:
https://www.bearcattalk.com/showthread.php?t=12211

Have your expectations changed? How do you think we will fare over this final stretch of the regular season?

I'm guessing we finish 6-3 the remainder of the way with those 3 loses on the road. Which would make us 25-6 going into conference tourney play. Which is going to far exceed my expectations.

Bart Torvik says 5-4.

@SMU will be difficult and so might @UConn given how closely both played at UC. Obviously @Hou & @ UCF and even @ Memphis will all be tough places to pick up a win. Hou & UCF at home won't be easy either. We'll see how good UC is in the next 3 weeks. Only sure wins are likely Memphis and WSU at home as both have been dreadful on the road.

That is pretty much where I sit. The easy part is behind us. All but a couple have been within reach by the opponent with about 5-7 minutes remaining. If Cronin can get the guys to follow the scouting report and play better D overall I think we will do better. But we have heard "not following the scouting report" in a few games now and I don't recall hearing that much last year.

We have to be more mentally focused on D to finish better than 5-4. Fewer breakdowns and over helping etc. We have to keep better track of when a shooter has been left open in space. If we do get beat by a driver we should probably take our chances more with the bigs behind them rather than to leave space for a shooter. Let the driver take a contested 2 over an uncontested kick out 3 or a reach in foul.

I think we can hold the other teams to 4-6 less points this way and we are going to need those points in a few of these games. Contest all shots at the rim, just get a hand in the face of 2 point jumpers, and stay closer to the shooters.

I'm beginning to think we need to stop switching all screens. It's pretty clear at this point that Scott cannot play perimeter defense.

As of now...Per T-Rank we have 4 games left where the predicted score will be outside of 2 point final game score differential. 3 wins at home over WSU (by 11), Memphis (11), UCF (6) and one loss on the road to Houston (by 5).

Let's lock those in. 22-4

The remaining 5 games have a predicted score within a single 2 point bucket. 4 away games and Houston at home.

These are basically toss up games so let's call them 50-50. We should either win 2 or 3 of them based on probability. We are only predicted as dogs in 1 of them (at UCF) but with a target on our back those away games will be tougher than the predicted score might have us believe. I don't think the predicted score takes into consideration which teams are going to have that target based on whether they are trying to win a conference title or have a permanent target just because we are the historic conference powerhouse so to speak.

If we can split those 50-50 away games I think it will be a very good outcome and no small task. A lot could be riding on that final home game against Houston. An outside chance at a conference title. A marquee top 25 win. And almost no doubt will move us a seed line in either direction.

We are in for some more close games and an exciting finish! I hope coach can get these guys fired up and focused like they never have been before.