Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs
Yeah, we only have 4 games left that aren't Q1 or Q2, and one of those (@USF) is very close to being Q2.
I still think 12-6 is the absolute minimum for us to be in the bubble conversation if things fall our way (meaning UConn, Houston, USF, and Vermont move up a quadrant). 13-5 probably puts us on the wrong side of the bubble with current rankings, and 14-4 on the right side of the bubble.
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We have 3 games left where T-rank has the spread at +5 points or more
We have 5 games left where we are -5 or better.
Let's say all of that goes according to probability.
We have 7 games left where the spread is -2.2 to +2.2. We would need to take 5 of 7 of them to be at 12-6. Let's call those 50-50 games and we need to win 71% of them. Anything better than that may be on the right side of the bubble and anything worse would be on the wrong side. 12-6 would probably be a toss up.