Thread: new metric
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:04 AM   #10
cincrulz11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
We don't know what the weights are, but they aren't all the same. They used a machine learning algorithm to develop a model that determined what weights gave the best hindcast results. Assuming it's properly calibrated, this would be an improvement over even Kenpom. I'm a little worried that it might be overfitted (meaning it predicts past results with past data really well, but not necessarily future ones - it could be overconfident that it can predict randomness). It's possible it will adjust the weightings in real time to correct itself.

well then that sounds much better than the ranting nate silver has been doing on twitter.
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