Thread: new metric
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:01 AM   #9
sedziobs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cincrulz11 View Post
right but doesn't NET use 5 components to get your overall rating. so your game results factored in from strength of opponent is just 1 of the components. Then your raw efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted win percentage (adjusted for home, neutral, road), and scoring margin (capped at 10).

im not sure if each component is weighted the same or not. if they are all the same, that seems to benefit teams that beat up bad opponents.
We don't know what the weights are, but they aren't all the same. They used a machine learning algorithm to develop a model that determined what weights gave the best hindcast results. Assuming it's properly calibrated, this would be an improvement over even Kenpom. I'm a little worried that it might be overfitted (meaning it predicts past results with past data really well, but not necessarily future ones - it could be overconfident that it can predict randomness). It's possible it will adjust the weightings in real time to correct itself.

Last edited by sedziobs; 11-27-2018 at 11:03 AM.
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