Thread: new metric
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:43 AM   #7
sedziobs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cincrulz11 View Post
you'll probably have fun with NET. i guess we'll get to see if its any better than RPI was.


ive read a few things about it i dont like, capping wins at 10 points, and the quality of your opponent doesn't matter for the stats you put up (holding duke to .98 ppp is the same as holding arkansas-pine bluff to .98ppp) but im not sure if thats actually true or people misinterpreting the data.


if it is true, it is probably a big benefit to us considering our schedule. rpi sucked but was actually great for us last year.
I thought it would be good to have a separate thread for NET.

The RPI is dead. The quadrant system remains, but NET will be used instead of RPI. The main improvements are the inclusion of tempo and scoring margin. The main drawback is the 10 pt margin cap, which seems too low to me. I think 15 would be better.

The algorithm components are different, but efficiency is still adjusted for opponents in the final result. So .98ppp vs AK-PB is the same as .98ppp vs Duke in terms of efficiency, but it is adjusted separately to account for schedule strength (opponent and location). Kenpom does the same thing. His rankings are based on adjusted efficiency, which start with raw efficiency. RPI didn't account for efficiency at all. Overall I think it's a huge improvement.

The biggest challenge this season will be in predicting what will happen to the NET rankings as the season progresses. Last year, we were able to use a variety of RPI forecasting tools that ran monte carlo simulations based on the simple RPI formula. Now we are sort of flying blind, and will be limited to analyzing the rankings in the present.

Cincinnati is currently ranked #46. It's way too early to be very meaningful. Unlike Kenpom, NET does not include any pre-season projections. RPI did not either. In another month we'll have a better idea of how good teams, and especially conferences, are.
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