Thread: Analytics
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Old 04-28-2022, 02:50 PM   #85
sedziobs
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All stats are tools, and you have to understand what they are telling you. Some conclusions can be drawn from stats, but others can't. For instance, you say "he was not very efficient on offense, he scored a lot but he also stalled the ball and took bad shots." There are some testable claims in there that we can look to stats to draw conclusions. We can look to true shooting percentage to determine if he was "efficient on offense". We can look at pts/40 to determine if "he scored a lot". And we can look at his long 2 rate as one measure of "bad shots".

The problem with +/- is we don't have a specific question to answer. We're looking at broad qualities with many variables and trying to draw conclusions that aren't robust.

With any statistical analysis, not just in sports, predictive value is what is important. If a stat can't help make accurate predictions, it's not worth relying on. It might help create a narrative, but it won't help make rational decisions. I prefer to stick to stats that are predictive. OReb, Free Throw, and Block+Steal rates are all generally consistent from year to year, perhaps after adjusting for usage and competition. Players generally see improvements in TO and Foul rates as they progress.

TS%, DReb, and Assist rates fluctuate a lot and can go up or down. Those are much less predictive, but at least they answer a specific question about the current/previous year. I just don't see much value in +/- over the course of a season. It's an interesting stat, but I don't think it's very useful.
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