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Originally Posted by skyblade
I calculated +/- excluding Alabama A&M (D2)
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Do you mean Ashland? Alabama A&M is D1. Either way it looks like there is some kind of adjustment going on since just adding/swapping those games isn't enough to make up the difference. I think it's just that blowout possessions are being excluded.
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Off Poss: Number of meaningful offensive possessions played.
Def Poss: Number of meaningful defensive possessions played.
One key step that we take to gain the best predictions from our data is to only look at possessions in a game that “mattered”. Analyzing possessions when the game is already well out of hand isn't as valuable to us as possessions when the winner hasn't been decided yet. We use the in-game naive win probability (which assumes that teams are equally matched) in order to assess when a game was out of hand. Once a team has a win probability of at least 99%, we start down-weighting the possessions until the win probability is greater than 99.99%, at which point we discard all possessions entirely.
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