Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs
We don't know what the weights are, but they aren't all the same. They used a machine learning algorithm to develop a model that determined what weights gave the best hindcast results. Assuming it's properly calibrated, this would be an improvement over even Kenpom. I'm a little worried that it might be overfitted (meaning it predicts past results with past data really well, but not necessarily future ones - it could be overconfident that it can predict randomness). It's possible it will adjust the weightings in real time to correct itself.
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well then that sounds much better than the ranting nate silver has been doing on twitter.