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Old 01-30-2020, 07:45 AM   #41
waterhead
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Wichita St at home might not end up as a Q1 game though. They're right on the edge. I can't see us getting any consideration if we have zero Q1 wins. At this point we might need to win at Houston or Wichita.
That is disappointing. At one time I thought 6 losses would be bubble (even if on the wrong side). Then 5. Now it could be that we have to win a game at Houston or WSU. That is not even a 50-50 proposition. However, with the way we have been playing lately I guess anything is possible. Our home game will have to travel if we want to win one of those two games.
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Old 01-30-2020, 09:04 AM   #42
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That is disappointing. At one time I thought 6 losses would be bubble (even if on the wrong side). Then 5. Now it could be that we have to win a game at Houston or WSU. That is not even a 50-50 proposition. However, with the way we have been playing lately I guess anything is possible. Our home game will have to travel if we want to win one of those two games.
We dug ourselves a hole, got to find a way to get out of it. Gonna have to win some hard games to get back in the discussion. These teams are in no way unbeatable. Houston just struggled at home against UConn. It can be done.
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Old 01-30-2020, 09:06 AM   #43
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i still feel like if our only losses the rest of the way are @ wichita state and @ houston we'll be ok. going undeated against tier 2 would be strong and having an overall record over .500 vs tier 1 and 2 combined would be solid.


Barttorvik projects with just those 2 losses we'd be in and avoid dayton.
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Old 01-30-2020, 09:42 AM   #44
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i still feel like if our only losses the rest of the way are @ wichita state and @ houston we'll be ok. going undeated against tier 2 would be strong and having an overall record over .500 vs tier 1 and 2 combined would be solid.


Barttorvik projects with just those 2 losses we'd be in and avoid dayton.
I would hope so but Barttorvik has both Houston and WSU as Q1 games at home. Actual NET rankings have them at 36 (Houston) and 30 for WSU. If we beat either team it could either drop them out or keep them out of Q1 and T-rank team sheet would change.

Either way I would hope only 4 losses in conference would get the job done but no Q1 wins would likely stand out.
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Old 01-30-2020, 09:54 AM   #45
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One thing is for sure. If we make the dance...we will be playing at a VERY high level.
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Old 01-30-2020, 10:21 AM   #46
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... win a game at Houston or WSU. That is not even a 50-50 proposition.
Using Torvik's win probabilities in those two games (30% and 29%), we have a 50.3% chance of winning at least one of them.
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Old 01-30-2020, 11:02 AM   #47
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I would hope so but Barttorvik has both Houston and WSU as Q1 games at home. Actual NET rankings have them at 36 (Houston) and 30 for WSU. If we beat either team it could either drop them out or keep them out of Q1 and T-rank team sheet would change.

Either way I would hope only 4 losses in conference would get the job done but no Q1 wins would likely stand out.

im just going to be positive. no quad 1 wins? how bout these quad 2 wins. im just going to tell myself its going to be ok.


i really do feel like if we only lose those 2 games we're in a pretty good spot. we might be lacking quad 1 wins, but the rest of our metrics should look good for a tournament team.
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Old 01-30-2020, 11:41 AM   #48
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A couple of changes after yesterday's games: South Florida moved back into the top 135 with a big win at Tulane, so that could be another Q2 game. On the other side, SMU is at 74, on the verge of dropping to Q3. UConn crushed Temple and moved up to 87. They're within striking distance of a Q1 away game.

Bubble teams struggled overall last night. Arizona St, Alabama, Arkansas, Xavier, and Oklahoma lost. Only Texas Tech had a good win.
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Old 01-30-2020, 12:16 PM   #49
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im just going to be positive. no quad 1 wins? how bout these quad 2 wins. im just going to tell myself its going to be ok.


i really do feel like if we only lose those 2 games we're in a pretty good spot. we might be lacking quad 1 wins, but the rest of our metrics should look good for a tournament team.
Perhaps recent form will play a small part in bubble decisions. Having a surging star like Cumberland in the dance could factor in a small way. Maybe our streak of 9 straight tourneys could play a minor role if they are looking for good story lines. Rewarding our SOS etc

If we are right on that bubble line...I hope we are the shiny object
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Old 02-02-2020, 10:53 AM   #50
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Q1
20 @Ohio St
24 Iowa
35 @Houston
38 @Wichita St
47 @Xavier
50 @Memphis


Q2
35 Houston
38 Wichita St
50 Memphis
60 Tulsa
70 Tennessee
72 SMU
86 @UConn
103 @Temple
117 @UCF
120 @USF

Q3
86 UConn
87 Vermont
103 Temple
121 UCF
125 Colgate
131 UNLV
133 Bowling Green
152 Drake
155 Valpo
171 @Tulane
227 @ECU

Q4
208 Illinois St
227 ECU
335 Alabama A&M
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