UCLA

[justinhub2003]

Originally Posted by GarradJ21

So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?

I'm not sure I would call it poor.


The OSU & MSU losses really hurt our chances at a top 8 seed.

But we still have plenty of opportunities left, its just none will be easy.

As of today we have 2 Tier 2 wins. With Xavier on the Cusp of being another (we kinda need them to beat Missouri tonight). IF they do that, it turns into a 3rd tier 2 win and we also need UNLV to stay top 135

But yea, say we beat UCLA and end up finishing with 4 Tier 2 wins, it won't be an insanely great resume, but it will be pretty decent. We just failed to capitalize on the 1 huge tier 1 games we had.



that said.. in conference we still have 10 more tier 1 or 2 chances left with 4 of them being tier 1 games.




That even further said, It will be the first time since the 2012 season where we didn't secure a Tier 1 type win in the non conference schedule.

2013: Iowa st and Oregon
2014: Pitt
2015: @NC State
2016: @VCU
2017: @iowa St
2018: @UCLA



Speaking of that though, Mick doesn't get a lot of credit for making his team pretty damn good road warriors. Thats an impressive 4 years streak of stealing wins from good teams in their own gym

[justinhub2003]

Originally Posted by Queens_NYC

I'd say it would be close to on par with last season's OOC resume.

Last season's best OOC wins...

Buffalo (neutral - 2nd Round NCAA team)
UCLA (away - Lost in NCAA Play-in game)
Miss State (home - 22 wins, no postseason)

This season we're looking at...

Ole Miss (neutral - outside looking in at NCAA at-large but still possible)
Xavier (home - same as Ole Miss)
UCLA (home - best shot at NCAA at-large)

According to KenPom our OOC SOS last season was 294th nationally. This year we're at 179th, so that should hopefully work in our favor with all the tournament metrics come March.

Don't discount that road win Against UNLV, On a team sheet, thats going to be a Tier 2 win most likely.

[GarradJ21]

Thanks for all the info.

[justinhub2003]

Originally Posted by waterhead

The NET ranking has us at 29 so not terrible by any means so far. UCLA would be a decent quality win for us. I think it's one of those games we need to win if we want to shoot for something like a 6 seed or so

I personally feel like we hurt our chances of getting a 6 seed or better, by not picking up tier 1 wins..

That said, if we somehow sweep Houston and UCF, then its very much in play. Just really hard to count on stuff like that.


Houston has played poorly in a few games now and still found ways to win.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

Don't discount that road win Against UNLV, On a team sheet, thats going to be a Tier 2 win most likely.

Looks like Miss is tier 1 neutral right now? 37 in RPI and 47 on the NET.

[GarradJ21]

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

I personally feel like we hurt our chances of getting a 6 seed or better, by not picking up tier 1 wins..

That said, if we somehow sweep Houston and UCF, then its very much in play. Just really hard to count on stuff like that.


Houston has played poorly in a few games now and still found ways to win.

How the heck did we get a two seed then last year.

This is how I look at it:
OOC:
UCLA wins cancel each other out (if we win Wednesday).
Miss St last year and UNLV this year cancel each other. With UNLV being on the road.
We lost to Florida and Xavier last year and lost to OSU and Miss State this year.

In Conference
Last year we beat WSU on the road.

This year lets say we beat Houston on the road we lose a couple maybe to UCF and Temple. I mean does last year really deserve a 2 seed and this year barley get us a 6 seed? To think we will blow through our conference with this team and the level of competition in the American is stupid but I'm just saying, wouldn't something like this get us right back to a 2 seed or so line?

I guess I'm just confused how we got a 2 seed last year and this year we are already writing off the fact that our chances to get an 8 seed or better seems unrealistic.

[GarradJ21]

Lets use the example below to predict our seed:

Beat UCLA and SC State finish 11-2 OOC.

Protect Home court and lose to Houston on the road, UCF on the road, and Temple on the road.
15-3

Overall 26-5. What seed? and if this isn't a 6 seed or better that would be nuts.

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by GarradJ21

How the heck did we get a two seed then last year.

last year they used rpi and the rpi really made our resume look much better than it was.

Buffalo was 35 on rpi, 67 on kenpom
Temple was 38 on rpi, 86 on kenpom
UCF was 62 on rpi, 111 on kenpom
Wyoming was 75 on rpi, 118 on kenpom
Uconn was 112 on rpi, 179 on kenpom
Memphis was 121 on rpi, 161 on kenpom



all those teams were bumped up 1 quadrant from where they should have been. our resume might have been much weaker if NET were used last year. All the sudden 7 tier one wins could have been 4.

[GarradJ21]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

last year they used rpi and the rpi really made our resume look much better than it was.

Buffalo was 35 on rpi, 67 on kenpom
Temple was 38 on rpi, 86 on kenpom
UCF was 62 on rpi, 111 on kenpom
Wyoming was 75 on rpi, 118 on kenpom
Uconn was 112 on rpi, 179 on kenpom
Memphis was 121 on rpi, 161 on kenpom



all those teams were bumped up 1 quadrant from where they should have been. our resume might have been much weaker if NET were used last year. All the sudden 7 tier one wins could have been 4.

Wow that's interesting. Lets redo it and take the 4 seed so we can erase that horrific 22 point lead meltdown.

I don't look up all the metrics that go into seeding and rankings. I felt like I was really only extremely impressed with our wins last year @UCLA, @WSU, and Houston in the conference championship game. That said, just like Cronin says, don't take winning for granted, so I was impressed as a whole with only losing 4 games all year as well (regular season and conference tourney).

So I guess deep down I did always wonder how we actually got a 2 seed (excluding our record), but I know there's the metric systems involved. I think we will lose more than 4 games this year, but just saying if we didn't, and to hear that a 6 seed or better is almost out of the question seemed surprising to me, but now I get it. Stating that we should have never really been a 2 seed last year makes better sense.

[GarradJ21]

UC -7 tomorrow. Pretty much what I thought it would be.