2020 Bracketology

[skyblade]

Originally Posted by cincyguy13

We really think UCLA could win out? I could easily see them losing 3 of their final 5. They have a hard schedule. I get the are playing better but they still aren’t that good. They have 3 road games. Those alone are going to be hard to win.

Granted I haven't watched them all that much, but they seem pretty good lately. I'd say they are about at UC's level, a neutral court game between UC and UCLA would be a toss up at this point.

They still aren't as good defensively as I'm sure Cronin wants them to be, but they have improved a lot and are much better than their kenpom rating. Offensively they've tracked right around UC's kenpom offensive ranking all season (right now UC is 58 in kenpom offense and UCLA is 63).

They are getting closer and closer to looking like a typical Cronin team. Play tough defense, crash the boards hard and play a lot of iso offense. But they also have more capable scorers than most Cronin teams have had in the past.

I doubt they win out, but 4-1 is not outside the realm of possibility. 3-2 or 2-3 wouldn't surprise me either.

[justinhub2003]

Originally Posted by cincyguy13

We really think UCLA could win out? I could easily see them losing 3 of their final 5. They have a hard schedule. I get the are playing better but they still aren’t that good. They have 3 road games. Those alone are going to be hard to win.

I said no. Just said if they do.


But they are confident and playing good basketball. Would be an interesting bubble development if they did


They are performing pretty well in big games with a 4-5 record against tier 1 teams.

I think they get another tier 1 win against Arizona at home, plus beat Utah on the road and beat Arizona st at home.

I think they are capable of beating USC but probably unlikely and probably won’t beat Colorado in Boulder.

My guess is 3-2 with a chance of 4-1... kenpom predicts 0-5 . But kempom also predicted losses to Washington and @arizona. Their numbers are worse than their current performance.

I mean as of today they are 1 Game back out of first place in the 4th best conference in the league. You have to consider them as a legit threat for a bid stealer

[cincyguy13]

Originally Posted by skyblade

Granted I haven't watched them all that much, but they seem pretty good lately. I'd say they are about at UC's level, a neutral court game between UC and UCLA would be a toss up at this point.

They still aren't as good defensively as I'm sure Cronin wants them to be, but they have improved a lot and are much better than their kenpom rating. Offensively they've tracked right around UC's kenpom offensive ranking all season (right now UC is 58 in kenpom offense and UCLA is 63).

They are getting closer and closer to looking like a typical Cronin team. Play tough defense, crash the boards hard and play a lot of iso offense. But they also have more capable scorers than most Cronin teams have had in the past.

I doubt they win out, but 4-1 is not outside the realm of possibility. 3-2 or 2-3 wouldn't surprise me either.

Yeah, I don’t care how good of a coach you are, it’s hard to win on the road. Harder against good teams and even harder when it’s the second time playing them. They also have to play a talented Arizona team at home. I’m guessing Arizona will be looking for revenge. I would say it’s highly unlikely but you never know I guess.

[sedziobs]

Guys, this is a Bearcats forum. I get that UCLA is more interesting than most other schools, but let's try to avoid extended discussion in this thread of any one team other than UC. If you really want to analyze UCLA's resume, start a new thread for it.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I expect we'll still be the 3rd to last team in after the weekend. I think Georgetown will replace Stanford as the last team in. Arkansas and Virginia will swap places with us sandwiched in between.

Today's bracketmatrix update has us included in 70 of 78 brackets. Georgetown and Utah St moved into the field, with Stanford and Arkansas dropping out. Our resume is considerably better than Utah St, who only has four Q1/Q2 wins (and no more regular season opportunities) plus a bad loss. It's nice to have a bit of breathing room if there are bid stealers.

[Cataclysmo]

Hey fellas, if this #101 ranked NET team wins out (3 Q1s and 2 Q2 games) they might be a threat to us! Better watch out for that #101 ranked NET team.

[sedziobs]

Another bracketmatrix update, and we have now moved above the last four in by number of brackets. We're ahead of Indiana, Purdue, Georgetown, and Utah St. Here's how the bubble resumes look right now (Q1, Q2, bad losses):

11 Virginia (3-3, 4-3, 1)
11 Purdue (3-9, 4-1, 2)
11 Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 3)
11 Northern Iowa (1-1, 3-1, 2)
11 Indiana (4-7, 2-2, 0)
12 Georgetown (5-9, 4-1, 0)
12 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1)
12 E Tennessee St (2-2, 2-1, 1)
-------------------------
Richmond (2-4, 2-1, 1)
Arkansas (2-5, 2-4, 0)
Stanford (2-5, 2-3, 1)
Miss St (2-6, 3-1, 2)

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Another bracketmatrix update, and we have now moved above the last four in by number of brackets. We're ahead of Indiana, Purdue, Georgetown, and Utah St. Here's how the bubble resumes look right now (Q1, Q2, bad losses):

11 Virginia (3-3, 4-3, 1)
11 Purdue (3-9, 4-1, 2)
11 Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 3)
11 Northern Iowa (1-1, 3-1, 2)
11 Indiana (4-7, 2-2, 0)
12 Georgetown (5-9, 4-1, 0)
12 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1)
12 E Tennessee St (2-2, 2-1, 1)
-------------------------
Richmond (2-4, 2-1, 1)
Arkansas (2-5, 2-4, 0)
Stanford (2-5, 2-3, 1)
Miss St (2-6, 3-1, 2)

we've worked ourselves into a pretty good spot for right now. losing 1 regular season game should get us in safely.


but you gotta win the games.

[kskenyon4]

Not sure the official word from the committee on this (or their consistency), but I have to assume a hidden measure of some bubble teams will be conference record. Is that a listed criteria? Lots of games left, but no way a 14-4 AAC team is left out of the tournament with our SOS, its too strong of a conference on paper and to the eye.

Just look who is in the play in dayton discussion, UNI with 3 losses in the MVC, Georgetown with a losing BE record 5-7, Indiana 6-8 B10, Utah state 5 losses in the MWC, Richmond 3 A10 losses, the list goes on and on.

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by kskenyon4

Not sure the official word from the committee on this (or their consistency), but I have to assume a hidden measure of some bubble teams will be conference record. Is that a listed criteria? Lots of games left, but no way a 14-4 AAC team is left out of the tournament with our SOS, its too strong of a conference on paper and to the eye.

Just look who is in the play in dayton discussion, UNI with 3 losses in the MVC, Georgetown with a losing BE record 5-7, Indiana 6-8 B10, Utah state 5 losses in the MWC, Richmond 3 A10 losses, the list goes on and on.

i dont think conference record plays much into it. teams with losing conference records have made the tournament before.