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Old 05-05-2022, 12:07 PM   #281
waterhead
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Originally Posted by skyblade View Post
We have a lot of depth, but little (if any) high end talent. There are minutes available anywhere for a top level guy.

If Vik, Hensley, Skillings or Reed can play at a high level, there's no one to keep them off the court.

DDJ, Newman, Davenport and Nolley are quality players at the AAC level but they all have major flaws in their game that would make them at best quality bench guys (and quite possibly not even that) if you move them to a high-level blue blood (say UCLA, because they are the high-level team I've watched the most).
Wes says we need to score more points and shoot better. I don't know where Hensley fits in that equation unless he makes a massive jump on offense. Ody has been around a while this is his 4th year. While Skillings and Reed certainly have some high ceilings...I have not heard much about their great D other than their superb length. They still have to move their feet well.

Nolley has been a significant contributor on a stacked roster playing out of position a lot. And I think there is hope we can see better efficiencies from other players with more scoring options on the floor (JD and DDJ etc).

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Old 05-05-2022, 12:07 PM   #282
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We should play our best players, but it's not unthinkable Reed/Skillings or even Hensley/Ody could be one of our 5 best players.

The comparison point is that our projected top players (DDJ, Newman, Nolley, Davenport) really aren't that good. We don't have a Gary Clark/Jacob Evans type who is good to great in all facets of the game. None of our starters have the potential to be even borderline NBA guys (unless Vik starts at the 5).

If Skillings/Reed/Hensley can come in, shoot 35+% from three, play quality defense and rebound well that's likely enough to start taking minutes from almost anyone on the team.
I don't even know what we're talking about anymore. Any player at any level who can shoot 35%+ from three, play quality defense and rebound well is going to play, even if Gary Clark and Jacob Evans are in front of them.

My point is it's going to be a lot harder for these frosh to earn 20 minutes on the wings because we already have 3 upperclassmen at those positions who are our best players on paper. Cumberland had to compete with only Evans, Johnson (who was solid, but not a 30+ min player), and to a small extent Jenifer (who was mostly a backup PG). He was going to be getting minutes simply for being healthy on that team.

I'm sure Skillings will see action every game, but barring injuries or a lineup shift, he's going to have to prove his effectiveness to get even 10 minutes. I think that's a good thing and I hope he's ready to contribute in a big way. Reed (or any of the forwards) might have a bigger opportunity because it's more likely one of the guys at those positions will not develop and be relegated to the bench.
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Old 05-06-2022, 07:40 AM   #283
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I don't even know what we're talking about anymore. Any player at any level who can shoot 35%+ from three, play quality defense and rebound well is going to play, even if Gary Clark and Jacob Evans are in front of them.

My point is it's going to be a lot harder for these frosh to earn 20 minutes on the wings because we already have 3 upperclassmen at those positions who are our best players on paper. Cumberland had to compete with only Evans, Johnson (who was solid, but not a 30+ min player), and to a small extent Jenifer (who was mostly a backup PG). He was going to be getting minutes simply for being healthy on that team.

I'm sure Skillings will see action every game, but barring injuries or a lineup shift, he's going to have to prove his effectiveness to get even 10 minutes. I think that's a good thing and I hope he's ready to contribute in a big way. Reed (or any of the forwards) might have a bigger opportunity because it's more likely one of the guys at those positions will not develop and be relegated to the bench.
Yah I don't think we are talking about guys at the middle and bottom of the roster cracking into the big minutes but just finding their way into the middle of the roster rotation for somewhere between 10-20.

We have 13 guys on this roster (Hensley being the only returnee getting less than 10mpg). When Clark came on board there were 2 PF's and one of those was Q (Ellis and Deberry played the 5). When Evans came on board there were 11 guys listed with stats on Torvik and 3 of those were Tobler, Q and a frosh Jenifer. Evans cracks the top 8 without much of a fight. And of course he was good enough to crack the top 5.

I would be ecstatic if either frosh earned 15mpg. Vik, Ody and Kalu are all going to get decent minutes almost by default. Foul trouble at the 5 will almost guarantee all 3 get 10 mpg there. I would expect the leader between 15-20. And I would expect 1 or 2 of them to see a few minutes at the 4.
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Old 05-06-2022, 07:59 AM   #284
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I would also agree with Sedz that one of the best things that could happen for the frosh would be if one of the wings can steal some time at PG opening up more minutes on the wing. DDJ or anyone else really. Just 10mpg would help. The more the merrier IMO.

I don't believe our best players (most talented) are at PG...they are on the wing and we need them on the court as much as possible. I don't know if any of the wings have a good enough handle to play point (for short spurts) other than DDJ but I do hope so. Nolley? Skillings? IDK.

And I also think by seasons end DDJ could be playing more point whether he wants to or not. If Wes can sell the idea of making the dance if he can play there for more and more minutes as the season goes on...hopefully DDJ would be okay with doing that for a shot to play in the tourney. When DDJ starts making money somewhere it's likely not going to be at the 2 guard.
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Old 05-06-2022, 09:34 AM   #285
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My argument is that we have a bunch of middle the roster guys and one proven shooter. We don't have an elite player who could start for any team.

It might be hard to crack into the middle of the lineup because we have a lot of depth. But there's plenty of room at the top. The ability to knock down threes and play solid defense is probably enough to break through to the top.

If the three point shooting of MAW, Phinisee, DDJ, Nolley and Newman stays about the same as their shooting last year, we are going to be desperate for guys who can spread the floor.

MAW/Phinisee are the most likely to be pushed to the bench. But I don't think anyone is completely safe.
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Old 05-06-2022, 12:26 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by skyblade View Post
My argument is that we have a bunch of middle the roster guys and one proven shooter. We don't have an elite player who could start for any team.

It might be hard to crack into the middle of the lineup because we have a lot of depth. But there's plenty of room at the top. The ability to knock down threes and play solid defense is probably enough to break through to the top.

If the three point shooting of MAW, Phinisee, DDJ, Nolley and Newman stays about the same as their shooting last year, we are going to be desperate for guys who can spread the floor.

MAW/Phinisee are the most likely to be pushed to the bench. But I don't think anyone is completely safe.
You have mentioned Hensley a couple of times as someone who could make a jump (possibly) to a much bigger role. He's a career .186 from 3 shooter and not much scoring in between. Admittedly on low volume but you seem to think other players outside the top guys can make a jump without a lot of consideration on how putting more offense on the floor could help the big minute getters. And Nolley was an all AAC guy one year and his frosh year was a big one. He's played on a stacked roster but you seem to imply he's just really not that good.

The comparison point is that our projected top players (DDJ, Newman, Nolley, Davenport) really aren't that good. We don't have a Gary Clark/Jacob Evans type who is good to great in all facets of the game. None of our starters have the potential to be even borderline NBA guys (unless Vik starts at the 5).

Help me understand what that means? Are you talking about All Americans here? Do you not see a scenario here where Nolley gets in the right situation to be able to impact the game to a high degree? DDJ is too small for 2 guard but even he has some potential for better efficiency shooting set shots rather than face guard step backs. These guys aren't liabilities IMO on either end IMO but perhaps not All American status. Do they have some weaknesses? Yah who doesn't. But it would likely take an all AAC guy or maybe honorable mention All American to just come in and take their spots. I don't think we can rely on the frosh or Hensley or Ody or Kalu etc to come in and get that done.
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Old 05-06-2022, 01:20 PM   #287
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You have mentioned Hensley a couple of times as someone who could make a jump (possibly) to a much bigger role. He's a career .186 from 3 shooter and not much scoring in between. Admittedly on low volume but you seem to think other players outside the top guys can make a jump without a lot of consideration on how putting more offense on the floor could help the big minute getters. And Nolley was an all AAC guy one year and his frosh year was a big one. He's played on a stacked roster but you seem to imply he's just really not that good.

Help me understand what that means? Are you talking about All Americans here? Do you not see a scenario here where Nolley gets in the right situation to be able to impact the game to a high degree? DDJ is too small for 2 guard but even he has some potential for better efficiency shooting set shots rather than face guard step backs. These guys aren't liabilities IMO on either end IMO but perhaps not All American status. Do they have some weaknesses? Yah who doesn't. But it would likely take an all AAC guy or maybe honorable mention All American to just come in and take their spots. I don't think we can rely on the frosh or Hensley or Ody or Kalu etc to come in and get that done.
Nolley, Davenport, DDJ and Newman are solid guys. By not that good, I mean he's not an elite player. Yes he's good, they are all guys you are probably happy to have as the 3rd-6th best players on the roster if you're a high-seed NCAA tournament team (though for DDJ that's probably with him at PG).

It's hard to see any of them becoming an elite player on both ends though. Davenport/Nolley would be the most likely too, but Davenport needs a broader offensive repertoire and has defense issues and Nolley needs to be more of a catch-and-shoot guy and put on some weight to improve at defense/rebounding.

The problem is they all (besides Davenport) have the same weakness. Poor three point shooting. If that continues to be true and teams pack it in, it's easy to imagine someone else getting significant minutes if they can knock down threes. That could be Reed/Skillings, Hensley (though I'd agree he seems more unlikely) or even Vik.

Last edited by skyblade; 05-06-2022 at 01:27 PM.
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Old 05-06-2022, 04:21 PM   #288
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Originally Posted by skyblade View Post
Nolley, Davenport, DDJ and Newman are solid guys. By not that good, I mean he's not an elite player. Yes he's good, they are all guys you are probably happy to have as the 3rd-6th best players on the roster if you're a high-seed NCAA tournament team (though for DDJ that's probably with him at PG).

It's hard to see any of them becoming an elite player on both ends though. Davenport/Nolley would be the most likely too, but Davenport needs a broader offensive repertoire and has defense issues and Nolley needs to be more of a catch-and-shoot guy and put on some weight to improve at defense/rebounding.

The problem is they all (besides Davenport) have the same weakness. Poor three point shooting. If that continues to be true and teams pack it in, it's easy to imagine someone else getting significant minutes if they can knock down threes. That could be Reed/Skillings, Hensley (though I'd agree he seems more unlikely) or even Vik.
Other than the frosh everyone was a worse (or similar) 3 pt shooter than the guys you are mentioning. Other than frosh itís more likely the guys you mentioned get better than those who would overthrow them. I just donít understand the argument. I also donít think either of the frosh are known for knock down shooting or even lock down D..

Knock down lock down will work every time. Nolley is a 3 level guy. You canít just boil it all down to 3 and D.
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Old 07-16-2022, 08:54 AM   #289
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You have mentioned Hensley a couple of times as someone who could make a jump (possibly) to a much bigger role. He's a career .186 from 3 shooter and not much scoring in between. Admittedly on low volume but you seem to think other players outside the top guys can make a jump without a lot of consideration on how putting more offense on the floor could help the big minute getters. And Nolley was an all AAC guy one year and his frosh year was a big one. He's played on a stacked roster but you seem to imply he's just really not that good.
Rumor is that Hensley has made a massive jump with his three point shooting form during the off-season.

Apparently he broke his right wrist late in the season, which forced him to spend 8 weeks shooting with only his left hand as he recovered (not using his off hand to support the ball). Which resulted in a much improved shooting form, at one point Chad said he watched Hensley knock down like 15 straight in practice.

Hensley has to keep the new form in games and pressure, not revert to the old one. But there may be a big jump coming.

Last edited by skyblade; 07-16-2022 at 09:31 AM.
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Old 07-16-2022, 05:49 PM   #290
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Let's hope so. He didn't offer much of a punch last season. Seems like someone with the tools to do more.
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