2017-18 Stats/Rankings

**sedziobs** · 01-10-2018, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

Pac 12 grades out barely better than us overall on kenpom. Both of us are way behind everybody else in Kenpom conference strength.

Unfortunately, our conference RPI is closer to the Missouri Valley than it is to the PAC-12. ECU and USF really hurt us.

**waterhead** · 01-10-2018, 11:45 AM

What are the odds we can hold at home AGAIN? WSU is going to be the only team that should give us a serious run. SHOULD!!

If we can hold at home I like our chances at being a 4 loss team. If we want to be a legit contender for a top 3-4 seed I feel like we have to win out at home. If we lose 1 at home then we have likely wasted our chances at a signature win and we likely lose both against WSU. We need at least 1 signature win to help our seeding IMO.

**waterhead** · 01-10-2018, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Unfortunately, our conference RPI is closer to the Missouri Valley than it is to the PAC-12. ECU and USF really hurt us.

How so? We are pretty close to Pac 12 and Big 10 as we are to Missouri Valley and Mountain West.

**sedziobs** · 01-10-2018, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by waterhead

What are the odds we can hold at home AGAIN?

According to kenpom, 37.23%

We can afford to lose at home if we we pick up corresponding road wins. Losing to Wichita at home would be about equivalent to beating UCF and Houston away.

**waterhead** · 01-10-2018, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

According to kenpom, 37.23%

We can afford to lose at home if we we pick up corresponding road wins. Losing to Wichita at home would be about equivalent to beating UCF and Houston away.

Yah....that's what I was afraid of. We need to beat WSU once. It's our only major opportunity left. We can beat some tough teams but we need that signature win IMO. Home or away we have to get one against them.

**sedziobs** · 01-10-2018, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by waterhead

How so? We are pretty close to Pac 12 and Big 10 as we are to Missouri Valley and Mountain West.

Hey, I just report the news! The AAC's actual RPI rating (not ranking) is .0112 above MVC, but .0163 below PAC-12. Those don't seem like big numbers, but the top four conferences are separated by only .0052. After playing 18 conference games, these seemingly small numbers will have had a large impact on every team's RPI.

**waterhead** · 01-10-2018, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by waterhead

Yah....that's what I was afraid of. We need to beat WSU once. It's our only major opportunity left. We can beat some tough teams but we need that signature win IMO. Home or away we have to get one against them.

Our 3 toughest home remaining games are Houston, UCF and WSU. I only worry about WSU. We must take that game for a huge year!!

**waterhead** · 01-10-2018, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Hey, I just report the news! The AAC's actual RPI rating (not ranking) is .0112 above MVC, but .0163 below PAC-12. Those don't seem like big numbers, but the top four conferences are separated by only .0052. After playing 18 conference games, these seemingly small numbers will have had a large impact on every team's RPI.

We aren't talking about the top 4 conferences here so who cares about them. We are talking about 5-9. They are very close. Not sure how it plays out but we can be either 5-9. Probably 5-7 is the best bet. Would you agree?

**sedziobs** · 01-10-2018, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by waterhead

We aren't talking about the top 4 conferences here so who cares about them.

The point was simply that a small number around a hundredth can have a large impact. I'm not comparing our conference to the top 4. I'm comparing it to the PAC-12 and MVC. Regardless of how we feel about the AAC, its poor RPI will limit the number of available Group 1 and 2 wins compared to other leagues. We may feel like we're on par with the PAC-12 and even B1G, but we're not statistically.

kskenyon4 · 01-10-2018, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

The point was simply that a small number around a hundredth can have a large impact. I'm not comparing our conference to the top 4. I'm comparing it to the PAC-12 and MVC. Regardless of how we feel about the AAC, its poor RPI will limit the number of available Group 1 and 2 wins compared to other leagues. We may feel like we're on par with the PAC-12 and even B1G, but we're not statistically.

Most models have AAC finishing as the 7th ranked conference.

I think that plays way more into UCF/SMU/Houston's world than UC/Wich St's. All that matters for us two lead dogs are column 1 and 2.

01-10-2018, 11:45 AM	#72
waterhead Senior Moderator Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,298	What are the odds we can hold at home AGAIN? WSU is going to be the only team that should give us a serious run. SHOULD!! If we can hold at home I like our chances at being a 4 loss team. If we want to be a legit contender for a top 3-4 seed I feel like we have to win out at home. If we lose 1 at home then we have likely wasted our chances at a signature win and we likely lose both against WSU. We need at least 1 signature win to help our seeding IMO.