UCLA

justinhub2003 · 12-18-2018, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GarradJ21

From this breakdown (always appreciated) it would sound like we are going to lose by 10. We haven't been great on the defensive rebounding side of things and if they are that good on offensive rebounding then we are in trouble. If we are relying on 3 pt shooting because they are a great 2 point defensive team then that is less than ideal.

Again, this breakdown would have me worried, and make it seem like we are going to lose by 10. Simple eye test and trusting our coach, team and home court advantage I think we win by 10.

I'm not pointing to win or lose at all.

I'm just interpreting the stats.

I think they will pose more of a matchup problem than a lot of people expect. Just because what we do well is score from the paint, rebound & defend. What they do well is defend the paint, & rebound. That said, offensively, they have some shooters but none are elite and if they want to beat us, its going to be from the 3 point line and I think we will gladly let them try that approach.

But it is a bit concerning that the teams who have beat them, have all done it with volume 3 point makes.

ALLL that said... were at home. that changes the dynamic by a large margin. The facts may not matter if were able to make them uncomfortable from tip to finish

**waterhead** · 12-18-2018, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

I'm not pointing to win or lose at all.

I'm just interpreting the stats.

I think they will pose more of a matchup problem than a lot of people expect. Just because what we do well is score from the paint, rebound & defend. What they do well is defend the paint, & rebound. That said, offensively, they have some shooters but none are elite and if they want to beat us, its going to be from the 3 point line and I think we will gladly let them try that approach.

But it is a bit concerning that the teams who have beat them, have all done it with volume 3 point makes.

ALLL that said... were at home. that changes the dynamic by a large margin. The facts may not matter if were able to make them uncomfortable from tip to finish

I guess we have some players who are due for a good shooting night from 3. Hopefully we see a few go in early from the guys who are struggling. It has to happen sometime...

GarradJ21 · 12-18-2018, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

I'm not pointing to win or lose at all.

I'm just interpreting the stats.

I think they will pose more of a matchup problem than a lot of people expect. Just because what we do well is score from the paint, rebound & defend. What they do well is defend the paint, & rebound. That said, offensively, they have some shooters but none are elite and if they want to beat us, its going to be from the 3 point line and I think we will gladly let them try that approach.

But it is a bit concerning that the teams who have beat them, have all done it with volume 3 point makes.

ALLL that said... were at home. that changes the dynamic by a large margin. The facts may not matter if were able to make them uncomfortable from tip to finish

Yeah, I see what you mean on all points for sure.

GarradJ21 · 12-18-2018, 11:44 AM

If we win, this will be the first win against a guaranteed tournament team, correct? Obviously NKU (or others) can win their conference, but I'm meaning again an at large bid. Assuming UCLA is truly a team to make the tournament. Xavier is up in the air.

cincrulz11 · 12-18-2018, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

I'm not pointing to win or lose at all.

I'm just interpreting the stats.

I think they will pose more of a matchup problem than a lot of people expect. Just because what we do well is score from the paint, rebound & defend. What they do well is defend the paint, & rebound. That said, offensively, they have some shooters but none are elite and if they want to beat us, its going to be from the 3 point line and I think we will gladly let them try that approach.

But it is a bit concerning that the teams who have beat them, have all done it with volume 3 point makes.

Similar to how UNLV posed some of the same match up problems. They had defended the 2 point shot well up until then (have been terrible since) and they get a ton of offensive boards.

UCLA is a much better opponent though. At least we are at home for this one.

I still like us in games like this. they don't shoot a lot of 3's, and as the announcer last game said, mick knows teams aren't going to beat us only shooting 2 point shots. the math doesn't work out for them.

but if we are particularly bad on offense and they hit some 3's they don't normally hit, it could be tight until the end.

i would still like to see us cut back on the amount of long 2 point jumpers we take. its such a low percentage shot. shooting those at 37% is the same as shooting 25% from 3. scott and keith need to stop shooting them and cumberland shouldn't settle for them. Our Pg's also take a decent amount of them off the dribble, and thats just an awful shot. You can shoot that shot any time but we tend to shoot it early in the clock for no apparent reason.

cincrulz11 · 12-18-2018, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GarradJ21

If we win, this will be the first win against a guaranteed tournament team, correct? Obviously NKU (or others) can win their conference, but I'm meaning again an at large bid. Assuming UCLA is truly a team to make the tournament. Xavier is up in the air.

ucla is far from a lock to make the tournament. probably wouldn't be in if it started today.

justinhub2003 · 12-18-2018, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GarradJ21

If we win, this will be the first win against a guaranteed tournament team, correct? Obviously NKU (or others) can win their conference, but I'm meaning again an at large bid. Assuming UCLA is truly a team to make the tournament. Xavier is up in the air.

I'm not even sure they are a sure fire Tourney team.

UCLA needs to beat us and OSU to really have done much damage in the non conference. They have a win over Notre Dame which they cancelled out by losing to Belmont.

GarradJ21 · 12-18-2018, 01:48 PM

So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?

Queens_NYC · 12-18-2018, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GarradJ21

So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?

I'd say it would be close to on par with last season's OOC resume.

Last season's best OOC wins...

Buffalo (neutral - 2nd Round NCAA team)
UCLA (away - Lost in NCAA Play-in game)
Miss State (home - 22 wins, no postseason)

This season we're looking at...

Ole Miss (neutral - outside looking in at NCAA at-large but still possible)
Xavier (home - same as Ole Miss)
UCLA (home - best shot at NCAA at-large)

According to KenPom our OOC SOS last season was 294th nationally. This year we're at 179th, so that should hopefully work in our favor with all the tournament metrics come March.

**waterhead** · 12-18-2018, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GarradJ21

So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?

The NET ranking has us at 29 so not terrible by any means so far. UCLA would be a decent quality win for us. I think it's one of those games we need to win if we want to shoot for something like a 6 seed or so

12-18-2018, 11:44 AM	#14
GarradJ21 Epic Member Join Date: Dec 2015 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 1,725	If we win, this will be the first win against a guaranteed tournament team, correct? Obviously NKU (or others) can win their conference, but I'm meaning again an at large bid. Assuming UCLA is truly a team to make the tournament. Xavier is up in the air.

12-18-2018, 01:48 PM	#18
GarradJ21 Epic Member Join Date: Dec 2015 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 1,725	So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?