EKU

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by skyblade

Finished watching the game. The big change at half time seemed to be just lack of energy, thinking the game was over. Nolley and Davenport especially stopped crashing the glass (until the final 4 minutes or so).

Hensley was excellent, he seems to be stepping up into a key backup role and there's an argument to be made that he should be starting.

Phinisee came up with some big steals and rebounds, was better against the press than MAW. But, at some point teams are going to stop defending him and dare him to make threes. EKU was starting to do it at times, Phinisee's man would just hang out in the paint.

Any word on Skillings injury? Also did anyone notice Hensley came up limping around the 13 minute of the second half and was holding upper thigh for a bit. Either he was cramping or it's a known lingering injury as he stayed in and none of the coaches seemed concerned.

I'm curious how deep in the bench Wes will go once we start playing better competition. Ody and Hensley (and Newman once healthy) looked like they deserve minutes off the bench. Phinisee as well, but as I noted I'm concerned about what happens if/when teams simply stop guarding him and dare him to shoot.

Also Vik took over the end of the game. He needs to learn to be smarter going for rebounds (though he also got called for one complete B.S. foul). In the past he could go all out for rebounds and if he got called for a foul it was no big deal. But as our best center, he needs to be smart and avoid some of those fouls. He brings too much value when on the floor, can't afford to have him on the bench because of fouls.

Probably too early to tell on Dan. He twisted an ankle and never came back in after getting taped up. Hensley was hurt at one point...guessing maybe he caught a knee to his leg but it wore off. Phinisee did have 7 boards (I am amazed) and a couple of nice steals. But yes...he's not much on offense at all. But MAW is not something to write home about there either.

[skyblade]

Originally Posted by waterhead

I would not change my starting lineup over this info. But Ody would start playing more than Kalu for sure. And Hensley is earning more minutes. that's about it for now.

I still don't really believe in the +/- numbers (especially counting Chaminade). I trust EvanMiya more, but want at least a 5 game sample size.

Based on what I've seen, Ody for Kalu and giving Hensley more minutes are the obvious changes. I think there's an argument to be made for Hensley to start with DDJ at PG. Regardless, it sounds like Newman is going to be out for some time, so Hensley's going to have a chance to really prove himself over the next few games.

Wes did say post game that Ezikpe was our leading scorer in the Purdue scrimmage. Sounds like Wes still hopes he can turn it around. I think Ezikpe has a lot more offensive skill (especially passing) than he's shown thus far. On the other hand, his history indicates that the rebounding and defense we've seen from him is about what we should expect. Even if his offense improves significantly, it's going to be hard for him to get minutes playing defense and rebounding like he has.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by skyblade

I still don't really believe in the +/- numbers (especially counting Chaminade) this is. I trust EvanMiya more, but want at least a 5 game sample size.

Based on what I've seen, Ody for Kalu and giving Hensley more minutes are the obvious changes. I think there's an argument to be made for Hensley to start with DDJ at PG. Regardless, it sounds like Newman is going to be out for some time, so Hensley's going to have a chance to really prove himself over the next few games.

Wes did say post game that Ezikpe was our leading scorer in the Purdue scrimmage. Sounds like Wes still hopes he can turn it around. I think Ezikpe has a lot more offensive skill (especially passing) than he's shown thus far. On the other hand, his history indicates that the rebounding and defense we've seen from him is about what we should expect. Even if his offense improves significantly, it's going to be hard for him to get minutes playing defense and rebounding like he has.

I don't trust small samples for anything including plus minus or EvanMiya. Too early to count anyone out. I am not making a case to change the starting lineup. Just tracking the numbers. It would appear Ody and Hensley could be better to get more minutes. And even if Kalu was the leading scorer at Purdue...that's not always indicative of a good plus minus number or any other metric that can track defense or how the team performs when he is on the court.

Does EvanMIya have that metric? IDK honestly I don't use that site. I would be interested in hearing about it though. Talking about team performance not individual performance when they are on the court.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by waterhead

I don't trust small samples for anything including plus minus or EvanMiya. Too early to count anyone out. I am not making a case to change the starting lineup. Just tracking the numbers. It would appear Ody and Hensley could be better to get more minutes. And even if Kalu was the leading scorer at Purdue...that's not always indicative of a good plus minus number or any other metric that can track defense or how the team performs when he is on the court.

Does EvanMIya have that metric? IDK honestly I don't use that site. I would be interested in hearing about it though. Talking about team performance not individual performance when they are on the court.

A player can be good at offense or defense but that doesn't tell the story of how the team performs while they are on the court. Plus minus is the only real indicator I know of that tells that story. Is it perfect? Not by any means especially in short term (small sample...same with any metric). But giving me a defensive (or offense) efficiency number tells me even less IMO. What else are the players doing when they aren't directly involved in a play? After many games plus minus starts to tell that story. I am tracking it now so I don't have to spend a whole day doing it later...hahah!

[Queens_NYC]

Chad reported from Wes's postgame presser that Newman will continue to be out for "some time".

No update on Skillings other than that he rolled his ankle. I assume he'll be out for NKU at the least.

With that being said, it looks like we'll be strictly rotating Nolley, Davenport, and Hensley at the 3 & 4 positions for the foreseeable future.

I assume if the staff was going to blow Reed's redshirt they would've done so by now.

[skyblade]

Originally Posted by waterhead

A player can be good at offense or defense but that doesn't tell the story of how the team performs while they are on the court. Plus minus is the only real indicator I know of that tells that story. Is it perfect? Not by any means especially in short term (small sample...same with any metric). But giving me a defensive (or offense) efficiency number tells me even less IMO. What else are the players doing when they aren't directly involved in a play? After many games plus minus starts to tell that story. I am tracking it now so I don't have to spend a whole day doing it later...hahah!

EvanMiya (EvanMiya.com) has a fair number of those types of stats if you go to Team Breakdown > Players. The OBPR and BPR I tend to find less relevant as they are partially stats based. But the Adjusted team efficiency and On-Off margin are based entirely off how the team performed with a player on the floor.

Though I'm not sure it updated properly for yesterdays game. Hensley for example was +21 in +/- on the box score, but I believe +0 on EvanMiya (they don't show game by game, but I believe he was -1 after CSU and still -1 after EKU). They do weight for non-garbage vs garbage (>99% win percentage) possessions, but I don't think the effect should have been that extreme.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by skyblade

EvanMiya (EvanMiya.com) has a fair number of those types of stats if you go to Team Breakdown > Players. The OBPR and BPR I tend to find less relevant as they are partially stats based. But the Adjusted team efficiency and On-Off margin are based entirely off how the team performed with a player on the floor.

Though I'm not sure it updated properly for yesterdays game. Hensley for example was +21 in +/- on the box score, but I believe +0 on EvanMiya (they don't show game by game, but I believe he was -1 after CSU and still -1 after EKU). They do weight for non-garbage vs garbage (>99% win percentage) possessions, but I don't think the effect should have been that extreme.

Okay. Are the efficiency numbers based on PPP?