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Old 11-12-2022, 09:47 PM   #21
waterhead
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Originally Posted by skyblade View Post
Wes gave Davenport the game ball post game, apparently he doesn't give out game balls every game. Said something like Davenport continued to play hard and do the right things despite missing shots.

If Wes says that, perhaps the fans are missing something. One is that the matchup was simply a bad one for him. The other is likely that the rest of the defense wasn't rotating or helping properly.

It's interesting that the +/- reflects Wes's view. I think I'll believe him, even if I saw Davenport get beat with my own eyes. I said last year and continue to think this year that Davenport stands out because when he gets beat, it's very obvious (straight up man-to-man). But I suspect that he doesn't get enough credit for when he does get stops (his man finished 7-19 shooting) or for his help defense.
It's hard to say exactly what it may have been for JD +/- but he did play 31 minutes so the lucky anomaly is hard to argue. I would expect you are correct in that he understands where he is supposed to be (even if he gets beat 1 on 1 some times)...the rest of the time he's not in lala land missing assignments etc. And on offense the same thing...but I would add just his shot making presence opens the floor up a bit for others. You have to stay within an arm length of him out to 25+ ft. He could just stand there and they would have to put someone on him that can't sag.

Plus minus is not an algorithm...it's the reality of what happens when a player is in the game. A lot of different things can affect that reality. Who was in the game with him, did we go on a hot run, did the other team go on a cold streak etc. But over time it can be useful.

I used to love it when STATSHEET gave plus minus numbers for free...with every single lineup variation for the game complete with the minutes they came in and the minute they came out. So you could see what happens when Rob and MAW play with the same 4 other guys. You could see where short scoring spurts were etc. You have to pay for that info now.

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Old 11-14-2022, 05:05 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
It's hard to say exactly what it may have been for JD +/- but he did play 31 minutes so the lucky anomaly is hard to argue. I would expect you are correct in that he understands where he is supposed to be (even if he gets beat 1 on 1 some times)...the rest of the time he's not in lala land missing assignments etc. And on offense the same thing...but I would add just his shot making presence opens the floor up a bit for others. You have to stay within an arm length of him out to 25+ ft. He could just stand there and they would have to put someone on him that can't sag.

Plus minus is not an algorithm...it's the reality of what happens when a player is in the game. A lot of different things can affect that reality. Who was in the game with him, did we go on a hot run, did the other team go on a cold streak etc. But over time it can be useful.

I used to love it when STATSHEET gave plus minus numbers for free...with every single lineup variation for the game complete with the minutes they came in and the minute they came out. So you could see what happens when Rob and MAW play with the same 4 other guys. You could see where short scoring spurts were etc. You have to pay for that info now.
Was there a single person outside of the coaching staff who watched that game and said that JD had a good game? I get that +/- is a good metric but it's not end all be all. I also fully admit that I don't know how exactly it tracks it but I'm assuming there will be discrepancies that can't be picked up on the stat sheet.

If you watched JD's mannerisms towards the end of the game you could tell that he was really feeling down on himself. Knowing Wes he probably saw it too and decided to keep his confidence high by giving him the game ball. Even on one of the last plays of the game JD completely lost his man because he was caught staring at the ball while is man cut to the basket. He had to scramble back and was lucky the guy didn't score. That happens quite a bit. Not sure how something like that would get tracked in +/- if his guy didn't score because either he missed an open look or if affected everyone else and someone else scored. Maybe it does, I dunno.
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Old 11-14-2022, 07:55 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by TheLongHaul View Post
Was there a single person outside of the coaching staff who watched that game and said that JD had a good game? I get that +/- is a good metric but it's not end all be all. I also fully admit that I don't know how exactly it tracks it but I'm assuming there will be discrepancies that can't be picked up on the stat sheet.

If you watched JD's mannerisms towards the end of the game you could tell that he was really feeling down on himself. Knowing Wes he probably saw it too and decided to keep his confidence high by giving him the game ball. Even on one of the last plays of the game JD completely lost his man because he was caught staring at the ball while is man cut to the basket. He had to scramble back and was lucky the guy didn't score. That happens quite a bit. Not sure how something like that would get tracked in +/- if his guy didn't score because either he missed an open look or if affected everyone else and someone else scored. Maybe it does, I dunno.
If a player goes in at the 6 minute mark and comes out at the 12 minute mark they track what we scored and what the opposition scored for those 6 minutes on the court (rinse and repeat). If it was 10 pts vs 6 points then that adds +4 to our player. Bench time is zero. If JD played 25 minutes for the game and the team outscored the other team while he was in the game by 17...that is +17.

It is certainly not the greatest metric (especially short term) but if JD is bad on ball D...but good at lots of other things that help the team then the team can do better when he is in than maybe a great defender who can't score. It's all relative.
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Old 11-16-2022, 06:02 PM   #24
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You can score all 50 of your team pts and give up zero pts defending, if other team scored 100 your +/- -50
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Old 11-18-2022, 10:43 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by TheRealMick View Post
You can score all 50 of your team pts and give up zero pts defending, if other team scored 100 your +/- -50
In one game the plus minus is less useful. Over time you find out how the team does when you are on the court and off. I track it starting off the season but after 10 games or so...it can tell a lot. 5 games maybe. So we are not there yet...but after Maui I think we are going to have some very useful data.
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Old 11-18-2022, 09:04 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
In one game the plus minus is less useful. Over time you find out how the team does when you are on the court and off. I track it starting off the season but after 10 games or so...it can tell a lot. 5 games maybe. So we are not there yet...but after Maui I think we are going to have some very useful data.
right, so probably shouldn't be used to try to make any argument of single game performance?
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Old 11-19-2022, 12:20 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by TheLongHaul View Post
right, so probably shouldn't be used to try to make any argument of single game performance?
Right. I've tried to make that very very very clear. But it is still a data point or metric that can be looked at.
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