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Old 02-16-2017, 01:28 PM   #1
Bearcat_NTS
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Trending the wrong way?

Have to say after the second half of the Xavier game, I was as optimistic as I've been probably since the win over #2 Syracuse. Cincinnati, made jump shots, crashed the glass and answered every Xavier late run. The fact that the game wasn't really even close at the end considering the horrible FT shooting and having an opponent go off, gave me hope that this might actually be the year. They scored an incredible 1.30 PPP and held Xavier to around 1.00 PPP in the second half. Sounds great.

Since then? Not so good. Particularly TERRIBLE away from home.

2/01 Tulsa: 0.97 PPP, 44.4 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
2/08 UCF: 0.98 PPP, 38.9 2PT%, 31.0 3PT%
2/12 SMU: 0.94 PPP, 35.3 2PT%, 34.4 3PT%
2/15 USF: 1.08 PPP, 46.3 2PT%, 33.3 3PT%

Looks familiar?? Here are the numbers from the 2013-14 down the stretch of the season:

2/02 USF: 0.94 PPP, 38.2 2PT%, 23.5 3PT%
2/06 UConn: 1.01 PPP, 50.0 2PT%, 37.5 3PT%
2/08 SMU: 0.86 PPP, 54.2 2PT%, 16.7 3PT%
2/22 UofL: 0.90 PPP, 30.6 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
3/01 UConn: 0.70 PPP, 25.0 2PT%, 30.0 3PT%


Hopefully the season doesn't end the same way...
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Old 02-16-2017, 01:40 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Bearcat_NTS View Post
Since then? Not so good. Particularly TERRIBLE away from home.

2/01 Tulsa: 0.97 PPP, 44.4 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
2/08 UCF: 0.98 PPP, 38.9 2PT%, 31.0 3PT%
2/12 SMU: 0.94 PPP, 35.3 2PT%, 34.4 3PT%
2/15 USF: 1.08 PPP, 46.3 2PT%, 33.3 3PT%

Looks familiar?? Here are the numbers from the 2013-14 down the stretch of the season:

2/02 USF: 0.94 PPP, 38.2 2PT%, 23.5 3PT%
2/06 UConn: 1.01 PPP, 50.0 2PT%, 37.5 3PT%
2/08 SMU: 0.86 PPP, 54.2 2PT%, 16.7 3PT%
2/22 UofL: 0.90 PPP, 30.6 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
3/01 UConn: 0.70 PPP, 25.0 2PT%, 30.0 3PT%


Hopefully the season doesn't end the same way...
Okay, so why are you only showing the bad games? You're leaving out any games where we scored well.

I'm not exactly thrilled with our offense away from home right now, but this all looks very misleading where you simply ignore the good games. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe after the Shootout, our AdjO skyrocketed from somewhere in the 50s to 39. Since then, it has gone from 39th in the country to 47th. Despite a little regress, that's really not too much of a drop-off, and it's still Top 50, which is better than where we were right before the Shootout.

I guess my point here is that although we're not necessarily red-hot anymore, we're not getting worse either. I definitely would like to see a few blowouts in our final 5 games though, as our #23 KenPom is hurting us a little. Back into the teens before Selection Sunday would be ideal.
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Old 02-16-2017, 01:47 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by #BearcatNation View Post
Okay, so why are you only showing the bad games? You're leaving out any games where we scored well.

I'm not exactly thrilled with our offense away from home right now, but this all looks very misleading where you simply ignore the good games. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe after the Shootout, our AdjO skyrocketed from somewhere in the 50s to 39. Since then, it has gone from 39th in the country to 47th. Despite a little regress, that's really not too much of a drop-off, and it's still Top 50, which is better than where we were right before the Shootout.

I guess my point here is that although we're not necessarily red-hot anymore, we're not getting worse either. I definitely would like to see a few blowouts in our final 5 games though, as our #23 KenPom is hurting us a little. Back into the teens before Selection Sunday would be ideal.
Definitely agree with the last paragraph. Can't lose that edge. I feel like towards the end of the year we play every game like it has to be close, regardless of the opponent. We must keep up the aggressiveness. I think we only have 1 player averaging 30 minutes, and our starters besides Evans have been around for years, fatigue shouldn't be a factor for us. Our guys looked pretty fresh last night. Let's hope we haven't peaked yet bc it'd be a real shame to go out with a whimper. Caupain and Johnson are 2-6 in postseason play in their careers. That can't sit well with them.
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Old 02-16-2017, 02:57 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by #BearcatNation View Post
Okay, so why are you only showing the bad games? You're leaving out any games where we scored well.

I'm not exactly thrilled with our offense away from home right now, but this all looks very misleading where you simply ignore the good games. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe after the Shootout, our AdjO skyrocketed from somewhere in the 50s to 39. Since then, it has gone from 39th in the country to 47th. Despite a little regress, that's really not too much of a drop-off, and it's still Top 50, which is better than where we were right before the Shootout.

I guess my point here is that although we're not necessarily red-hot anymore, we're not getting worse either. I definitely would like to see a few blowouts in our final 5 games though, as our #23 KenPom is hurting us a little. Back into the teens before Selection Sunday would be ideal.
Cincinnati was #16 in the KenPom following the Xavier game. They have dropped 7 spots since. It's not solely because UC is playing poorly but more importantly that other teams are improving. As they say, if you aren't getting better...you are getting worse. Hard to argue that a drop in all the metrics in the last 3 weeks is not an indication that things are trending the wrong way.
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Old 02-16-2017, 02:58 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Bearcat_NTS View Post
Cincinnati was #16 in the KenPom following the Xavier game. They have dropped 7 spots since. It's not solely because UC is playing poorly but more importantly that other teams are improving. As they say, if you aren't getting better...you are getting worse. Hard to argue that a drop in all the metrics in the last 3 weeks is not an indication that things are trending the wrong way.
Agreed. We are getting worse. Hopefully we don't show up to the rest of the games.
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Old 02-16-2017, 03:11 PM   #6
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23-3. Lost to a very good SMU team, we aren't lighting it up offensively right now, but we are still winning. That's all that matters. Hustle is there, effort is there, shots will start to fall again.
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Old 02-16-2017, 03:30 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Bearcat_NTS View Post
Have to say after the second half of the Xavier game, I was as optimistic as I've been probably since the win over #2 Syracuse. Cincinnati, made jump shots, crashed the glass and answered every Xavier late run. The fact that the game wasn't really even close at the end considering the horrible FT shooting and having an opponent go off, gave me hope that this might actually be the year. They scored an incredible 1.30 PPP and held Xavier to around 1.00 PPP in the second half. Sounds great.

Since then? Not so good. Particularly TERRIBLE away from home.

2/01 Tulsa: 0.97 PPP, 44.4 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
2/08 UCF: 0.98 PPP, 38.9 2PT%, 31.0 3PT%
2/12 SMU: 0.94 PPP, 35.3 2PT%, 34.4 3PT%
2/15 USF: 1.08 PPP, 46.3 2PT%, 33.3 3PT%

Looks familiar?? Here are the numbers from the 2013-14 down the stretch of the season:

2/02 USF: 0.94 PPP, 38.2 2PT%, 23.5 3PT%
2/06 UConn: 1.01 PPP, 50.0 2PT%, 37.5 3PT%
2/08 SMU: 0.86 PPP, 54.2 2PT%, 16.7 3PT%
2/22 UofL: 0.90 PPP, 30.6 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
3/01 UConn: 0.70 PPP, 25.0 2PT%, 30.0 3PT%


Hopefully the season doesn't end the same way...
We definitely are not playing well right now but we got some time to get back on track. I think the only game we might lose is the uconn
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Old 02-16-2017, 03:33 PM   #8
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Honestly the only games that matter are the conference tourney and the NCAA. That's what everyone will remember.
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Old 02-16-2017, 03:34 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Bearcat_NTS View Post
Cincinnati was #16 in the KenPom following the Xavier game. They have dropped 7 spots since. It's not solely because UC is playing poorly but more importantly that other teams are improving. As they say, if you aren't getting better...you are getting worse. Hard to argue that a drop in all the metrics in the last 3 weeks is not an indication that things are trending the wrong way.
Keep in mind, I did say "a little regress". Point is, we've been anywhere from like 16-25 in KenPom all season. Do I want to start trending the other way? Absolutely. Would love to see the team start stepping on other team's throats. But the fact that our overall hasn't changed more than single-digits all year shows we've been very consistent. Which really isn't a bad thing.
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Old 02-16-2017, 03:51 PM   #10
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I agree. SMU was trending in the right direction until this last game which is not a trend in itself. We have been dropping because we aren't playing as well...Let alone better which we should all hope.

I don't know why people get upset with fans who want to see progress.
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