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Old 03-05-2019, 10:41 AM   #71
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
If you're going to talk about metrics, it would probably be wise to limit them to the ones the committee uses. Those are BPI, Kempom, and Sagarin. Torvik's site is interesting for fans, but is irrelevant in terms of bracketology. As I have said previously, Torvik's ratings are extremely volatile and don't do a good job with large scoring margins. We're exacly 5 spots ahead of UCF in all of the committee's metrics, but 7 points behind them in T-Rank.

UC
29 BPI
31 Kenpom
26 Sagarin
34 Torvik

UCF
34 BPI
36 Kenpom
31 Sagarin
27 Torvik
That's fair. I was just trying to show metric movement and I don't have premium Kenpom. Do you know how far UC and UCF moved over the past 3 games on kempom? Obviously it won't be as significant as you pointed out but I would be interested to see how it looked then vs now. I would suspect UCF closed the gap at least a little

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Old 03-05-2019, 11:27 AM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
That's fair. I was just trying to show metric movement and I don't have premium Kenpom. Do you know how far UC and UCF moved over the past 3 games on kempom? Obviously it won't be as significant as you pointed out but I would be interested to see how it looked then vs now. I would suspect UCF closed the gap at least a little
I didn't renew my Kenpom subscription this year, but I have been checking the rankings every now and then. I don't remember them ever being more than a few spots away from 30.

NCAA.com keeps an archive of their team sheets. Here's the rankings After the UCF game, and the change since:

UC
26 BPI (+3)
31 Kenpom (0)
28 Sagarin (-2)
32 Torvik (+2)

UCF
45 BPI (-11)
50 Kenpom (-14)
41 Sagarin (-10)
44 Torvik (-17)

UCF has improved in all metrics for good reason. Winning at Houston will do that. UC has been steady. Going farther back shows a bigger disparity. Here's our rankings from January 7 (first release of the season):

UC
21 BPI (+8)
30 Kenpom (+1)
21 Sagarin (+5)
19 Torvik (+15)

Kenpom has been remarkably stable.

Last edited by sedziobs; 03-05-2019 at 11:30 AM.
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:04 PM   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I didn't renew my Kenpom subscription this year, but I have been checking the rankings every now and then. I don't remember them ever being more than a few spots away from 30.

NCAA.com keeps an archive of their team sheets. Here's the rankings After the UCF game, and the change since:

UC
26 BPI (+3)
31 Kenpom (0)
28 Sagarin (-2)
32 Torvik (+2)

UCF
45 BPI (-11)
50 Kenpom (-14)
41 Sagarin (-10)
44 Torvik (-17)

UCF has improved in all metrics for good reason. Winning at Houston will do that. UC has been steady. Going farther back shows a bigger disparity. Here's our rankings from January 7 (first release of the season):

UC
21 BPI (+8)
30 Kenpom (+1)
21 Sagarin (+5)
19 Torvik (+15)

Kenpom has been remarkably stable.
Thanks for doing that. It wasn't just the Houston game for UCF. They blew the doors off of SMU and handled USF away quite nicely. They are playing some damn good basketball and I am more than a little worried going to their house on senior day. If we beat them it will be no small feat.
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:32 PM   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
Thanks for doing that. It wasn't just the Houston game for UCF. They blew the doors off of SMU and handled USF away quite nicely. They are playing some damn good basketball and I am more than a little worried going to their house on senior day. If we beat them it will be no small feat.
Most of Torvik's UCF change is due to overvaluing the blowout over SMU. This is the basic point I'm trying to make.

Before SMU game and change:
46 BPI (-5)
50 Kenpom (-4)
41 Sagarin (-3)
44 Torvik (-12)

Before Houston game and change:
40 BPI (-6)
42 Kenpom (-6)
36 Sagarin (-4)
31 Torvik (-4)

The other rankings discount the huge margin, and rewarded UCF more for their win at Houston than their home win vs SMU. Torvik valued the Houston win only a third as much as the SMU blowout. That doesn't pass the smell test for me.
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:54 PM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Most of Torvik's UCF change is due to overvaluing the blowout over SMU. This is the basic point I'm trying to make.

Before SMU game and change:
46 BPI (-5)
50 Kenpom (-4)
41 Sagarin (-3)
44 Torvik (-12)

Before Houston game and change:
40 BPI (-6)
42 Kenpom (-6)
36 Sagarin (-4)
31 Torvik (-4)

The other rankings discount the huge margin, and rewarded UCF more for their win at Houston than their home win vs SMU. Torvik valued the Houston win only a third as much as the SMU blowout. That doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I understand what you have been saying about Torvik. All I am saying is that UCF has played damn good basketball and they are moving the needle in the right direction. Just to beat Houston away is huge but their other convincing wins tell a story about where they are as a team right now compared to where we are.

Our needle is not moving but I will take the W's.
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Old 03-11-2019, 08:44 AM   #76
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Weekly Resume Update

Record: 25-6 (14-4 AAC)

NET: 27

Current Seed Projection: 7 seed (6.33 avg on Bracket Matrix - will update for 3/11)

Q1: 4-4

Q2: 6-1

Q3: 9-0

Q4: 6-1


Potential AAC Tournament Opponents (3/11 NET rank in parenthesis):

Q1: Houston (4), UCF (28), Temple (50)

Q2: Memphis (53),*Tulsa (89), Wichita (90), UConn (95), South Florida (97)

Q3: *SMU (103)

Q4: East Carolina (258), Tulane (297)

*UC plays winner of Tulsa/SMU in AAC Quarterfinals

Last edited by Queens_NYC; 03-11-2019 at 08:47 AM.
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Old 03-11-2019, 11:35 AM   #77
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4. Houston (Q1-A,Q1-A)
21. Mississippi St (Q1-A)
27. Cincinnati
28. UCF (Q1-A,Q1)
34. Ole Miss (Q1)
50. Temple (Q1)
53. Memphis (Q1,Q2)
55. Ohio St (Q2)
71. Xavier (Q2)
89. Tulsa (Q2)
90. Wichita St (Q2)
95. UConn (Q2)
97. South Florida
103. SMU (Q2)
158. UNLV
258. East Carolina (Q4)
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