Bracketology

[TheRealUC]

Jay Bilas released his top 68. Has UC #25 as 2nd weekend contenders. He says:

"This is the first time in forever that Cincinnati's offense is better than its defense. Mick Cronin is now an offensive coach. One of the reasons is the play of junior guard Jarron Cumberland, who is shooting better from 3 than from 2. Cumberland has hit 61 3-point field goals, but only he and Justin Jenifer (40) have hit more than 18."

Has Houston #10 as Final Four contenders.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...-valentine-day

[Cin City]

Originally Posted by TheRealUC

Jay Bilas released his top 68. Has UC #25 as 2nd weekend contenders. He says:

"This is the first time in forever that Cincinnati's offense is better than its defense. Mick Cronin is now an offensive coach. One of the reasons is the play of junior guard Jarron Cumberland, who is shooting better from 3 than from 2. Cumberland has hit 61 3-point field goals, but only he and Justin Jenifer (40) have hit more than 18."

Has Houston #10 as Final Four contenders.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...-valentine-day

The tourney is a crapshoot. That's not a knock. In regards to Houston, the have a senior PG and two guards that can shoot the living shit out of the ball...that's a nice recipe come March. I wouldn't be surprised if they did, but it's all about matchups. For instance, if Houston and Marquette payed in the Elite 8 or Sweet 16...that's a matchup of two teams that mirror one another (In my non-paid opinion).

The bracket will be interesting to say the least I think.

In other news, depending on our path, we could make a nice run (lord knows we're due) but we could also see a Wofford in round 1 and be ousted.

Who the hell knows!?!?!?

[kskenyon4]

Team A:
25-2
Q1 wins: 0,
Q2 wins: 8,
Q3/4 losses: 1
SOS 118

Team B:
23-4
Q1 wins: 3
Q2 wins: 5
Q3/4 losses: 1
SOS 76

[Quadri's #1 fan]

Originally Posted by kskenyon4

Team A:
25-2
Q1 wins: 0,
Q2 wins: 8,
Q3/4 losses: 1
SOS 118

Team B:
23-4
Q1 wins: 3
Q2 wins: 5
Q3/4 losses: 1
SOS 76

Nevada

[kskenyon4]

Originally Posted by Quadri's #1 fan

Nevada

Who is a 5 seed in ESPN/CBS projections compared to Cincy's 7 seed. Hopefully the committee see's the above and feels we are at minimum neck and neck and not 2 seed lines apart.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by waterhead

We are doing a good job of winning basketball games so we look good for our quadrant wins and losses but we are doing a poor job with our metrics.

We were ranked #19 after the ECU loss (per T-rank). We are now ranked #31 after winning 11 of 12 games. The Houston loss dropped us only 1 spot. So in the other 11 wins we have dropped a total of 11 spots. Every game since Tulsa we have either lost ground or stayed about even. That includes 6 out of 7 wins.

I like Torvik's site because it is free and has tons of cool customizable features. But I think his ranking system is inferior to Kenpom. It values blowout margins too much, and is very volatile. As an example, UCF moved up from 44 to 33 after their blowout over SMU. On Kenpom UCF is still 45. Similarly, UC has been close to 30 all season on Kenpom, but we were ranked as high as 15 at the start of conference play before falling to 32 on T-Rank.

Any way you slice it, our current efficiency rating near 30 puts us in the 8 seed range. Our resume is in the 6/7 seed range. Altogether it equals a 7 seed.

There has also been talk of Nevada. While their resume is probably 7/8 seed quality, their 22 ranking in Kenpom is in the 6 seed range. Their game at Utah St this Saturday will probably determine their fate, since it could be their only Q1 game of the season.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I like Torvik's site because it is free and has tons of cool customizable features. But I think his ranking system is inferior to Kenpom. It values blowout margins too much, and is very volatile. As an example, UCF moved up from 44 to 33 after their blowout over SMU. On Kenpom UCF is still 45. Similarly, UC has been close to 30 all season on Kenpom, but we were ranked as high as 15 at the start of conference play before falling to 32 on T-Rank.

Any way you slice it, our current efficiency rating near 30 puts us in the 8 seed range. Our resume is in the 6/7 seed range. Altogether it equals a 7 seed.

There has also been talk of Nevada. While their resume is probably 7/8 seed quality, their 22 ranking in Kenpom is in the 6 seed range. Their game at Utah St this Saturday will probably determine their fate, since it could be their only Q1 game of the season.

You are probably right on Kenpom he's been doing it a long time. However, I felt like the 15 rank on T-rank seemed appropriate at the time. It seems to me we were playing better basketball at the time. Of course all the teams in our league are familiar with Cronin so it's harder to blow them out.

It's really hard to put a pure rank on this team given our metrics don't exactly line up with our poll ranks etc. Are we around 30th best team or are we closer to 20? I guess it's really a pretty small margin all things considered. Whether the blowouts are over valued I sure would like to see one again soon...but I'll take the W's any day.

[sedziobs]

March 1 bracketology update:
Records are (Q1,Q2,bad losses).

6 Nevada (0-0,8-1,1)
6 Miss St (9-4,2-3,0)
6 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
6 Villanova (4-6,10-2,0)
7 Iowa (4-7,7-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-9,4-2,0)
7 Cincinnati (4-2,5-1,1)
7 Washington (1-4,5-1,1)
8 Baylor (4-6,8-1,2)
8 Auburn (2-7,8-2,0)
8 Wofford (3-4,4-0,0)
8 Ole Miss (4-8,3-1,0)

[jtsladder@aol.com]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

March 1 bracketology update:
Records are (Q1,Q2,bad losses).

6 Nevada (0-0,8-1,1)
6 Miss St (9-4,2-3,0)
6 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
6 Villanova (4-6,10-2,0)
7 Iowa (4-7,7-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-9,4-2,0)
7 Cincinnati (4-2,5-1,1)
7 Washington (1-4,5-1,1)
8 Baylor (4-6,8-1,2)
8 Auburn (2-7,8-2,0)
8 Wofford (3-4,4-0,0)
8 Ole Miss (4-8,3-1,0)

Doesn't Villanova have a couple home bad losses?

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by jtsladder@aol.com

Doesn't Villanova have a couple home bad losses?

You're probably thinking of Furman, but they are 46 in the NET. They also lost at Penn. Both are Q2 games.