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Old 12-14-2020, 02:05 PM   #1
justinhub2003
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USF

Not a whole lot of must wins this early In basketball.

But Iíd say a clean sweep of this weeks games is a must. Have to beat USF and have to beat Georgia.

We are favored to win both

USF

60th in KP
162 in offense
60 in defense



They defend the 3 extremely well and we shoot the 3 worse than most teams in the country.

Alesis Yetna is under utilized thus far but if he wants to light us up he is more than capable and David Collins / Caleb Murphy will need to be contained without fouling.


I think itís an another game that goes down to the wire. And thatís concerning.


In fact I donít see a game on the schedule that this team is capable of blowing out. We may not have another 10 point win the rest of the way.

25% from 3 as team is about as bad as you can get. Youíd hope this number does not hold as it would be the worst 3pt shooting team in the Kenpom era dating back to 1997 from Uc

Only one cincinnati teams in that span has shot under 30% and that team is still 4% better than this team.

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Old 12-14-2020, 04:53 PM   #2
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
Not a whole lot of must wins this early In basketball.

But Iíd say a clean sweep of this weeks games is a must. Have to beat USF and have to beat Georgia.

We are favored to win both

USF

60th in KP
162 in offense
60 in defense



They defend the 3 extremely well and we shoot the 3 worse than most teams in the country.

Alesis Yetna is under utilized thus far but if he wants to light us up he is more than capable and David Collins / Caleb Murphy will need to be contained without fouling.


I think itís an another game that goes down to the wire. And thatís concerning.


In fact I donít see a game on the schedule that this team is capable of blowing out. We may not have another 10 point win the rest of the way.

25% from 3 as team is about as bad as you can get. Youíd hope this number does not hold as it would be the worst 3pt shooting team in the Kenpom era dating back to 1997 from Uc

Only one cincinnati teams in that span has shot under 30% and that team is still 4% better than this team.
I would say you are a little to early on the 10 pt margin all year thing. As well I don't see any way we maintain the 25% number from 3. Most teams will probably sag on us to cut off the drives. We just need to utilize the kickout more often to open guys. We have seen way too many players trying to get/make their own 3's so far and or bombing from outside of our range. We can't settle for the early 3 from way beyond the arc...we should be able to get those late in clock pretty easy.

UC by 11 LOL!
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Old 12-14-2020, 05:06 PM   #3
waterhead
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As often as we can I hope we can keep these guys in for about 30 minutes or so

Vogt
Eason
Williams
Dejulius


Then find a hot shooter and keep them in the game. So far that has been Davenport.
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Old 12-14-2020, 05:48 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
As often as we can I hope we can keep these guys in for about 30 minutes or so

Vogt
Eason
Williams
Dejulius


Then find a hot shooter and keep them in the game. So far that has been Davenport.
USF scares me, they are a big, tough, physical team and have a history of getting into rock fights with us. Michael Durr is 7-0 250 lbs, they've got a couple of other 250+ guys on the team. They are one of very few teams we will face who are bigger than us.

Vogt tends to struggle with physicality, Rap seems to struggle with everything, Eason is unknown, but hopefully practicing against Vogt helps him out.

At PF they have Yetna, who was was projected to be one of the top players in the American last year before his injury. Eason is going to have his work cut out for him and if Eason gets in foul trouble, Davenport is likely going to really struggle with Yetna's size.

At guard David Collins is one of those quick guards that always gives us fits.

They are also a upperclassman heavy team, which may be to their benefit.

I think this will be a nail biter, could go either way. Need Vogt, Eason and Keith to stay out of foul trouble.
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Old 12-15-2020, 08:42 AM   #5
Queens_NYC
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On paper, USF looks like a really tough team. FWIW though, their KP is 105, not 60.

They return 7 lettermen including 3.5 starters from last year's team, re-added an NBA-caliber talent in Yetna, along with a top 100 recruit in Caleb Murphy, and a couple high-major transfer bigs who come off the bench.

So far they've been pretty predictable with their performances.

They've decisively beaten the KP 200+ teams on their schedule (Stetson and FGCU).

They've decisively lost to the KP top 100 teams they've played (Rhode Island and Va. Tech).

And then they barely beat a KP 135 Wofford team.

We went on a 36-11 2nd half run to beat them in Tampa for our penultimate game of the year last season.

If Keith and Vogt can stay on the court then I like us to win comfortably. If not, then we're looking at a rock fight.
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Old 12-15-2020, 10:24 AM   #6
justinhub2003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Queens_NYC View Post
On paper, USF looks like a really tough team. FWIW though, their KP is 105, not 60.

They return 7 lettermen including 3.5 starters from last year's team, re-added an NBA-caliber talent in Yetna, along with a top 100 recruit in Caleb Murphy, and a couple high-major transfer bigs who come off the bench.

So far they've been pretty predictable with their performances.

They've decisively beaten the KP 200+ teams on their schedule (Stetson and FGCU).

They've decisively lost to the KP top 100 teams they've played (Rhode Island and Va. Tech).

And then they barely beat a KP 135 Wofford team.

We went on a 36-11 2nd half run to beat them in Tampa for our penultimate game of the year last season.

If Keith and Vogt can stay on the court then I like us to win comfortably. If not, then we're looking at a rock fight.
Snap Good Catch.


I listed their defense twice
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Old 12-15-2020, 01:08 PM   #7
sedziobs
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Let's keep the game threads focused on the matchup at least until tipoff.

South Florida's strength is offensive rebounding, the only area they are top 50. They don't shoot many threes, and are terrible at the free throw line (57%). On defense, they give up a ton of three point attempts, but hold opponents to only 26%.

David Collins, their highest usage player, is having a rough season so far. He has an ORtg of under 93, turnover rate above 28, and a free throw rate under 27. In the games against Rhode Island and Virginia Tech, Collins averaged 6 turnovers per game. He has been shooting the three well though in limited attempts, hitting 5 of 9.

Alexis Yetna and Justin Brown have been their most efficient players by far, but with very low usages of 17 and 14, indicating that they are not creators. USF likes to play at a slow pace, so the key to this game might be speeding up Collins and forcing him into turnovers while keeping them off the offensive glass.
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Old 12-15-2020, 01:23 PM   #8
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The Rhode Island and Virginia Tech games were not competitive. USF's deficit was never cut to single digits in the second half of either game. Against Wofford they trailed by as many as 8 in the second half, and the game was tied with 20 seconds left.

All three of those games were on a neutral floor. This will be their first true road game of the season.
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Old 12-15-2020, 01:34 PM   #9
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Responding to Justin's post that got moved:
Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
To me every team will be in the game because of these reasons:

1. We don't shoot well from 3 (25%)
2. We don't protect the rim
3. We Foul too Damn much
4. We shoot poorly from the line (64%, a staple of CJB teams)
I think a lot of the problems you listed will plague/affect our games against the better teams in the league (Houston, Memphis, SMU) but I think USF is a team where we can work around a lot of those issues.

Against their only two opponents that are comparable to UC (V. Tech and RI), USF:

-forced them to shoot poorly from 3 (9/33 combined/27%), which should be concerning for UC, but neither team also took more than 17 attempts, so it clearly didn't hamper their scoring ability too much.

-defended horribly from 2. RI and VT both shot 65% from inside the arch.

-USF shot sub-40% FG and 30% 3FG in both games. Both RI and VT's Adj D is rated roughly the same or slightly worse than UC's.

-USF fouled 49 times and drew 44 fouls over the two games - both high rates. Their opponents capitalized by shooting 83% (47/56) from the foul strip in turn. USF shot 66% (33/50) during those two games themselves.

If UC really is a top 50-75 KP team then there should be a lot of weakness for us to exploit here.

Last edited by sedziobs; 12-15-2020 at 01:53 PM. Reason: Added referenced post
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Old 12-15-2020, 02:04 PM   #10
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This game will be on ESPN2 at 7pm on Wednesday. Seems like game times and channels might be a week-by-week situation all year.
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