NKU

[Madman81]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

xavier under mack got open shots vs everybody. they ran very good offense. im not sure what it looks like this year, but their efficiency numbers are still good.



we have bigs contest 3 point shots, other teams really dont have that going on. we get our guards switched down into the paint on bigs. there has to be some weakness in a defense, you can't stop everything always.

some shots are open, sure - especially during the time in which our defenders regularly sagged off the corner to help against dribble penetration and ended up giving up wide open corner 3s.

but, if you can't acknowledge that a lot of the trash they've thrown up has been contested or hoisted by bad shooters, we've not been watching the same games.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

the last 5 years we've been 229, 236, 215, 182, 150. we are 222 so far this year. maybe i should have said every recent year, but i think a 5 year trend is sufficient.

There are 353 teams. If you split that into thirds, the middle portion is 118 to 235. So almost all of the last 5 years have been in the middle third, albeit the bottom half. Before that we had quite a few years in the top third. So defensive rebounding in general is below average under Cronin, but not by much.

not against this particular team. the way they've played offense has been hard for us to stop, and while they've shot an absolutely insane percent from 3 against us, they are usually getting open shots. we've given up 1.11 ppp the past 5 years combined against them and thats not normal for us. 102.1 ADJD average in those games (barttorvik number).

the only game we've won vs them the past 5 years we scored 129.8 PPP ourselves.

Xavier has a new coach. Their defense this year is by far the worst Cronin will have ever faced. That's why I think offense is the key for us. We have to take advantage. If X makes 10 threes and 25 free throws like they did last year, we'll need to put up tons of points even if we have excellent defensive rebounding.

I think last year was a fluke though, and despite our recent rough stretch, things will revert to efficiency means over the long term. In Cronin's 12 shootouts, the better Kenpom team has won 8 times. Xavier has 3 upsets and UC has one (none of the 4 upsets were away games). that's pretty close to the expected outcome. Xavier has won most games in that stretch because they've had better teams.

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

There are 353 teams. If you split that into thirds, the middle portion is 118 to 235. So almost all of the last 5 years have been in the middle third, albeit the bottom half. Before that we had quite a few years in the top third. So defensive rebounding in general is below average under Cronin, but not by much.

yes but you know if you rank anywhere near 200 in a stat, you are very bad at it. maybe closer to overall average when you count the numerous horrible programs in the sport, but its still very bad.

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I think last year was a fluke though, and despite our recent rough stretch, things will revert to efficiency means over the long term. In Cronin's 12 shootouts, the better Kenpom team has won 8 times. Xavier has 3 upsets and UC has one (none of the 4 upsets were away games). that's pretty close to the expected outcome. Xavier has won most games in that stretch because they've had better teams.

i think a lot of the last 5 years have been fluke. they've shot an insane percent from 3. even with some poor shooting 3 point teams. awful 3 point shooters have drained a bunch of them. they are 52-97, 53.6% the past 5 years combined from 3. only 2 of those teams were ranked in the top 90 in 3 point % and the best was ranked 71st. absolutely insane.

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by Madman81

some shots are open, sure - especially during the time in which our defenders regularly sagged off the corner to help against dribble penetration and ended up giving up wide open corner 3s.

but, if you can't acknowledge that a lot of the trash they've thrown up has been contested or hoisted by bad shooters, we've not been watching the same games.

i just posted this last week

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

its always the bad shooters that hurt us vs them, and they've got more this year than ever before!


we gotta worry about goodin, marshall, and scruggs.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

yes but you know if you rank anywhere near 200 in a stat, you are very bad at it. maybe closer to overall average when you count the numerous horrible programs in the sport, but its still very bad.

That's not true for individual statistics. There are tons of major programs worse than us at defensive rebounding, including teams that are better than us overall (Duke, Virginia Tech, Texas). And there are a bunch of terrible teams that are near the top in defensive rebounding (Longwood, Charlotte, St Francis are all top 15). Individual stats are fairly normally distributed across all teams.

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

That's not true for individual statistics. There are tons of major programs worse than us at defensive rebounding, including teams that are better than us overall (Duke, Virginia Tech, Texas). And there are a bunch of terrible teams that are near the top in defensive rebounding (Longwood, Charlotte, St Francis are all top 15). Individual stats are fairly normally distributed across all teams.

you can be a great team but still be really bad in some aspects. you can still be a horrible team but be really good at a thing or two.



i dont know if there is a filter for it, but if you could find where we ranked OR% against among teams ranked in the top 150 i would think we'd come in below 75.


i still think if you are around 200 in any individual stat, you just aren't good at that stat. doesn't mean you can't be great as a team. like you said duke is 275 in OR% against, but they are still an amazing overall team.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

i still think if you are around 200 in any individual stat, you just aren't good at that stat. doesn't mean you can't be great as a team. like you said duke is 275 in OR% against, but they are still an amazing overall team.

I'll give you that. Below average is not good, but slightly below average isn't "very bad". We just have to make up for it with the other 4 factors, like offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers, where we're top 15. And against Xavier, we can make up for it by exploiting their weaknesses - defense and forcing turnovers.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

i dont know if there is a filter for it, but if you could find where we ranked OR% against among teams ranked in the top 150 i would think we'd come in below 75.

One way to do this is by looking at where we would rank in each conference. If we use our current 30.1 rate, we would have ranked 3rd in the Big 12, 10th in the ACC, 8th in the SEC, and 11th in the Big Ten. Below average, but not horrible.

[waterhead]

I think there must be a way to get a little better at defensive rebounding while still playing the same style of D we play. As has been mentioned we switch on everything and we try and contest every shot close to the basket often times putting our bigs out of position to get a rebound. Whether they are closing on a 3 point shooter or going for a block...it's pretty hard to box out when you are in the air.

That is something we, as a team, have said we are willing to trade off to some extent. I am sure we could make some adjustments but I think we would have to give up something in another area. I think Cronin's dream is having 5 guys who can switch (especially bigs on guards)...so I doubt that philosophy will change much. It produces very good results every year on D...but we are going to give up some defensive rebounds and corner 3's as the nature of the beast.

Our biggest improvements are going to need to come on the other side of the ball.

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I'll give you that. Below average is not good, but slightly below average isn't "very bad". We just have to make up for it with the other 4 factors, like offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers, where we're top 15. And against Xavier, we can make up for it by exploiting their weaknesses - defense and forcing turnovers.

right, i wasn't trying to say we can't win if we don't keep it down, but we've struggled 3 straight games with it and it would help if we get it a little under control vs xavier



its always interesting to me when teams match up and you get to compare some numbers. like xavier being awful at defending the 3 but us rarely shooting it, or unlv struggling with turnovers and us forcing and lot and getting them to turn it over 14 times, or nku being fouling machines on the season and us getting 33 ft attempts.