2020 Bracketology

Queens_NYC · 02-18-2020, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

i dont think conference record plays much into it. teams with losing conference records have made the tournament before.

And on the flip side, Tulsa missed the tourney with a 14-4 AAC record in 14-15. Their final KenPom ranking was 85.

**sedziobs** · 02-18-2020, 12:51 PM

I don't think a good conference record alone will help. It would hurt to have a conference record more than a couple games under .500 though. Georgetown, Purdue, and Indiana are at risk of doing that despite being in the field as of now. Arkansas is 4-8 in the SEC right now.

**sedziobs** · 02-19-2020, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

I think a lot of our resume is dependent on other teams.
If Houston drops from top 30 , we lose a tier 1 win.
Walking in to selection Sunday with two tier 1 wins and 3 tier 3 losses, I don’t think you feel great.

If Houston drops from the top 30 but we win out, we would be at least 10-0 in Q2. That's miles ahead of bubble teams, even with 3 bad losses.

Potential for bid stealers is lower than normal this year in my opinion. A bid steal is more likely if there is only one team from a conference projected to be in the field. There are a few borderline cases, but none that are certain. The Mountain West, West Coast, and Atlantic 10 all have multiple teams in the field right now. The Missouri Valley and Southern Conference each have one team, but the leaders of those conferences are on the bubble themselves. Those could still be one bid leagues if Northern Iowa and East Tennessee St stumble.

justinhub2003 · 02-19-2020, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

If Houston drops from the top 30 but we win out, we would be at least 10-0 in Q2. That's miles ahead of bubble teams, even with 3 bad losses.

Potential for bid stealers is lower than normal this year in my opinion. A bid steal is more likely if there is only one team from a conference projected to be in the field. There are a few borderline cases, but none that are certain. The Mountain West, West Coast, and Atlantic 10 all have multiple teams in the field right now. The Missouri Valley and Southern Conference each have one team, but the leaders of those conferences are on the bubble themselves. Those could still be one bid leagues if Northern Iowa and East Tennessee St stumble.

Just seem to remember them putting a lot of value on Tier 1 wins last year. Teams surrounding us in the 11 seed range like Virgina, Purdue, Georgetown, Arizona ST, USC, & Florida.

Virgina 3-3 Q1
Purdue 4-10
Gtown 5-9
Arizona State 4-6
USC 2-6
Florida 3-6

Those teams have 4 tier 3 losses COMBINED, we have 3 and yet don't have has many Q1 wins.

Im interested to see how some one like Purdue could get in with now being a 500 basketball team.

I mean there is a scenario where Houston Slips up tonight at Tulsa and maybe again @Memphis and drops out of the top 30 and still beats us at home. That would be the worst scenario considering we'd fall back to having just 1 Q1 win.

cincrulz11 · 02-19-2020, 09:14 AM

i mean you're changing your argument now. you said if we win out we still might not make it. 0% chance we win out and don't make it.

yeah if we lose to houston and houston falls apart and all our wins drop a quadrant, nobody is gonna feel safe.

**sedziobs** · 02-19-2020, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

I mean there is a scenario where Houston Slips up tonight at Tulsa and maybe again @Memphis and drops out of the top 30 and still beats us at home. That would be the worst scenario considering we'd fall back to having just 1 Q1 win.

Yeah, the season's not over. There's still work to do. No one is saying we're safe as of now. Only that we're safe if we win out. I still think we're in with one loss, but maybe sweating a bit on selection Sunday. With other bubble teams struggling so much, I'd say we even have a decent chance with two more losses.

I mean, which of the first four out are going to move ahead of us? Richmond, Utah St, Arkansas, Stanford, and Miss St each have only two Q1 and two Q2 wins. Three of those teams have no Q1 opportunities left. Arkansas is the only one of those teams without a bad loss.

Sure, Q1 wins are more important. But you can't just ignore Q2. That's what we're hanging our hat on this year.

kskenyon4 · 02-19-2020, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

Just seem to remember them putting a lot of value on Tier 1 wins last year. Teams surrounding us in the 11 seed range like Virgina, Purdue, Georgetown, Arizona ST, USC, & Florida.

Virgina 3-3 Q1
Purdue 4-10
Gtown 5-9
Arizona State 4-6
USC 2-6
Florida 3-6

Those teams have 4 tier 3 losses COMBINED, we have 3 and yet don't have has many Q1 wins.

Im interested to see how some one like Purdue could get in with now being a 500 basketball team.

I mean there is a scenario where Houston Slips up tonight at Tulsa and maybe again @Memphis and drops out of the top 30 and still beats us at home. That would be the worst scenario considering we'd fall back to having just 1 Q1 win.

All of those teams you mentioned are in, according to bracket matrix. Purdue has 13 losses, Georgetown only 2 Q2 wins, so on so on. UC would need all of these teams to be placed above them, and a few from the terrible list below to make it:

Richmond
Arkansas (4-9 SEC)
VCU
Stanford (0 Q1 wins and 2 Q3 losses)
Mississippi Stae

cincrulz11 · 02-20-2020, 08:09 AM

no idea what 4 quad 3 losses does, but i feel sick.

**sedziobs** · 02-20-2020, 08:32 AM

We fell to the fourth team out in Torvik's bracketology, which I think is the best one that updates in real time. If that's pretty accurate, I think it means we still get in if we win out. We would add a third Q1 win and have somewhere between 7 and 9 Q2 wins. Yeah, the 4 bad losses are ugly and no other team has that many. All of the bubble resumes have holes though. Here are the current resumes per Torvik (Q1, Q2, bad losses):

11 Northern Iowa (1-1, 3-1, 2)
11 Rhode Island (1-4, 5-1, 1)
11 NC St (5-2, 3-4, 3)
11 Virginia (3-3, 4-3, 1)
11 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1)
11 USC (2-6, 6-0, 1)
12 Richmond (2-4, 2-0, 2)
12 Georgetown (5-9, 4-2, 0)
--------------------------------
Miss St (2-6, 4-1, 2)
Purdue (5-10, 2-1, 2)
Providence (6-8, 2-0, 4)
Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 4)

**sedziobs** · 02-20-2020, 10:34 AM

I ran some scenarios on Torvik. According to his model, our season basically hinges on the game at Houston. If we win out, we are in. If we lose one more game to Wichita St, USF, or Temple, we are still barely in. If we lose at Houston, we are out. Might not be accurate, but that's what the model shows. Of course, that's before the effect of any bid stealers.

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02-18-2020, 12:51 PM	#72
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	I don't think a good conference record alone will help. It would hurt to have a conference record more than a couple games under .500 though. Georgetown, Purdue, and Indiana are at risk of doing that despite being in the field as of now. Arkansas is 4-8 in the SEC right now.

02-19-2020, 09:14 AM	#75
cincrulz11 Epic Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 4,329	i mean you're changing your argument now. you said if we win out we still might not make it. 0% chance we win out and don't make it. yeah if we lose to houston and houston falls apart and all our wins drop a quadrant, nobody is gonna feel safe.

02-20-2020, 08:09 AM	#78
cincrulz11 Epic Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 4,329	no idea what 4 quad 3 losses does, but i feel sick.

02-20-2020, 08:32 AM	#79
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	We fell to the fourth team out in Torvik's bracketology, which I think is the best one that updates in real time. If that's pretty accurate, I think it means we still get in if we win out. We would add a third Q1 win and have somewhere between 7 and 9 Q2 wins. Yeah, the 4 bad losses are ugly and no other team has that many. All of the bubble resumes have holes though. Here are the current resumes per Torvik (Q1, Q2, bad losses): 11 Northern Iowa (1-1, 3-1, 2) 11 Rhode Island (1-4, 5-1, 1) 11 NC St (5-2, 3-4, 3) 11 Virginia (3-3, 4-3, 1) 11 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1) 11 USC (2-6, 6-0, 1) 12 Richmond (2-4, 2-0, 2) 12 Georgetown (5-9, 4-2, 0) -------------------------------- Miss St (2-6, 4-1, 2) Purdue (5-10, 2-1, 2) Providence (6-8, 2-0, 4) Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 4)

02-20-2020, 10:34 AM	#80
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	I ran some scenarios on Torvik. According to his model, our season basically hinges on the game at Houston. If we win out, we are in. If we lose one more game to Wichita St, USF, or Temple, we are still barely in. If we lose at Houston, we are out. Might not be accurate, but that's what the model shows. Of course, that's before the effect of any bid stealers.