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View Poll Results: What will our record be the last 10 games?
10-0 5 16.13%
9-1 11 35.48%
8-2 14 45.16%
7-3 or worse 1 3.23%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-30-2018, 09:27 AM   #11
justinhub2003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
I agree with you on SMU and WSU.

What I am wondering about is the RPI vs other metrics committee formula. I thought the other metrics were being brought into consideration by virtue of them changing the breakdown of the tiers. RPI did not consider road or home advantage where other metrics like Kenpom did...so they adjusted what columns 1-4 would look like based off of advanced metrics.

Is this inaccurate? Would it matter at that point (after the tiers were adjusted) how each team looks on Kenpom or other advanced metric sites? They already adjusted the RPI formula to account for it.

The answer is we have no idea.

Add in that the new Tier System is flawed.

Team A is 9-2 vs Tier 1&2 teams
Team B is 8-3 vs Tier 1&2 teams

Team A looks like the clear better team right? But then you examine the quality of those wins even further and you see that Team B might only have 8 Tier 1&2 wins but they came against Texas, Florida, Michigan st, Miami Fl, Florida St, Etc

And Team A wins came against: Buffalo, Wyoming, UCLA, Temple, UCF, memphis,


This is why they will have to dig deeper because ranking just on the tier System is not a true reflection of reality.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:42 AM   #12
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
The answer is we have no idea.

Add in that the new Tier System is flawed.

Team A is 9-2 vs Tier 1&2 teams
Team B is 8-3 vs Tier 1&2 teams

Team A looks like the clear better team right? But then you examine the quality of those wins even further and you see that Team B might only have 8 Tier 1&2 wins but they came against Texas, Florida, Michigan st, Miami Fl, Florida St, Etc

And Team A wins came against: Buffalo, Wyoming, UCLA, Temple, UCF, memphis,


This is why they will have to dig deeper because ranking just on the tier System is not a true reflection of reality.
Right. But nothing has changed there. Top 50 and top 100 rpi was always the starting point. Dissecting the results was going to happen and still will. Advanced metrics is going to help the lesser conference to a degree by giving us more chances in those columns...but the dissecting of wins and losses will continue.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:52 AM   #13
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The RPI group system is a starting point, an initial sorting method. Therefore, it is extremely important, but it doesn't in itself determine the final outcome. Nothing is a "true reflection of reality". There's 351 teams playing a 35 or so game schedule. There's no way to definitively rank teams.

The committee has laid out its tools for us, so we might as well consider those first. Kenpom is on the team sheet, and the committee can use it. We should be relieved by that because we are #6 in Kenpom. However, the vast majority of the team sheet is RPI-based. The four groups really stand out:
https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/defa...eet_guide1.pdf
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:09 AM   #14
cincrulz11
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
The RPI group system is a starting point, an initial sorting method. Therefore, it is extremely important, but it doesn't in itself determine the final outcome. Nothing is a "true reflection of reality". There's 351 teams playing a 35 or so game schedule. There's no way to definitively rank teams.

The committee has laid out its tools for us, so we might as well consider those first. Kenpom is on the team sheet, and the committee can use it. We should be relieved by that because we are #6 in Kenpom. However, the vast majority of the team sheet is RPI-based. The four groups really stand out:
https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/defa...eet_guide1.pdf


and even though we hate rpi, it probably favors us this year. makes the buffalo win much much better, wyoming win is better, temple wins are better.


our kenpom resume, outside of being ranked 6th, is pretty shabby.
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:11 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
The RPI group system is a starting point, an initial sorting method. Therefore, it is extremely important, but it doesn't in itself determine the final outcome. Nothing is a "true reflection of reality". There's 351 teams playing a 35 or so game schedule. There's no way to definitively rank teams.

The committee has laid out its tools for us, so we might as well consider those first. Kenpom is on the team sheet, and the committee can use it. We should be relieved by that because we are #6 in Kenpom. However, the vast majority of the team sheet is RPI-based. The four groups really stand out:
https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/defa...eet_guide1.pdf
Thanks for the team sheet info. It really can tell the optimistic fan why we should be hesitant and the pessimist fan why to be optimistic.

We don't have high quality wins yet. We have a chance...but we need Houston and WSU to keep winning to be honest. I am not sure we should be rooting for SMU at this point (at least in games against those other two teams). We can root for them but they have been inconsistent and lost a significant player. Houston has a better chance IMO to be a tourney team right now. If SMU goes on a run that could change...they still have some talent left on the team.

Same goes for column 2...we need the highest ranked and highest probable teams to go on a run. WE need some quality to go with our quantity.
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:28 AM   #16
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our kenpom resume, outside of being ranked 6th, is pretty shabby.
Right, but Kenpom isn't meant to be used like a resume. It's intended as a stand-alone ranking. RPI is not meant to be used to rate the team itself, only a team's opponents.

From Mr. Pomeroy himself:
Quote:
The user can’t put any trust in a team’s actual ranking but must look at the underlying data: who a team has played and who it has beaten. And thus, things like record vs. top 50 teams are deemed more important than a team’s own RPI rank. But in doing so, one puts trust in an opponent’s RPI ranking, the very thing the user is told to ignore for the team in question.

Through repetition over three decades, this construct has been ingrained in the at-large selection process so that few people question it
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My rankings are designed to stand on their own, but if you are interested in assessing a team’s quality wins and losses, the tier approach is a more fair way of thinking.
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:37 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Right, but Kenpom isn't meant to be used like a resume. It's intended as a stand-alone ranking. RPI is not meant to be used to rate the team itself, only a team's opponents.

yes the 6 ranking should speak for itself based on what his rankings are supposed to stand for.


but we all know it doesn't unfortunately (at least to casual fans and im not going to give the committee members much more credit than that).




i almost put in an edit in that post after reading what i wrote cause i knew a response like this was coming.
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:46 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Right, but Kenpom isn't meant to be used like a resume. It's intended as a stand-alone ranking. RPI is not meant to be used to rate the team itself, only a team's opponents.

From Mr. Pomeroy himself:
It's a double edged sword right now. I can only hope WSU, Houston, and SMU win every other game outside of ours. Every time we beat one of them it adds to our quantity but reduces quality. Every time we lose...it adds to their quality and reduces our quantity.

I say lets win them all and hope they each win the max amount they can outside of that. If we are wondering who to root for (outside of our games) it should be the higher ranked team.
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:52 AM   #19
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If we are wondering who to root for (outside of our games) it should be the higher ranked team.
But what if SMU or Houston beating Wichita helps them get into the field? I think that might be preferred. It's hard to say.

Edit: Well, 3 of those 4 games have already been played. Only Wichita @ SMU is left.
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Old 01-30-2018, 11:01 AM   #20
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But what if SMU or Houston beating Wichita helps them get into the field? I think that might be preferred. It's hard to say.

Edit: Well, 3 of those 4 games have already been played. Only Wichita @ SMU is left.
Good lord my head hurts....yes...lol! Too much to put it all into one category for sure. Obviously as things get more clear we may need one thing to happen over the other. I was just speaking in general.

We are 10 games out. When we need to fine tune this...we can start factoring that in to who we root for. Way too many variables right now...I agree.

We want as many tourney teams as we can get and as high ranked as we can get. We need to maximize the shit out of our schedule. We need other teams to maximize the shit out of theirs. There will be some winners and losers but I want quality right now since it seems we might have the quantity.
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