Bryant

[sedziobs]

The defense was great in this one. 97 points looks really impressive but this game had 89 possessions. We scored less than 1.1 points per possession. It helped that Bryant wasn't hitting threes, but we also held them to under 50% at the rim.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by skyblade

I wish Hensley could play offense. His defense is impressive. At 6'9ish" we put him on Bryant's top scoring 6'4" guard and Hensley completely shut him down.

Yah Hensley is no slouch and can probably guard all 5 positions if he had to so that's kinda nice. Maybe we can get Newman back around mid season IDK.

The frosh are looking well ahead of where most frosh are usually at. 13 and 9 rebounds is awesome for the whole game let alone for half the game. Good to see Daniel hit some 3's...the early practice reports were that he can shoot a ball so Hopefully that's what we get from now. Reed seems to make everything he looks at right now...except for the FT's.

As for Rob's injury...I would expect some kind of 25-15 split with MAW and DDJ at PG...maybe 30-10 but that's 10 more minutes to divide up for Skillings and more indirectly Reed.

[sirthought]

I saw that Sage got in the game at the end with the walk-ons. Maybe he won't take the red shirt.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by sirthought

I saw that Sage got in the game at the end with the walk-ons. Maybe he won't take the red shirt.

Unless he gets injured he can't I don't think

[skyblade]

Originally Posted by waterhead

Yah Hensley is no slouch and can probably guard all 5 positions if he had to so that's kinda nice. Maybe we can get Newman back around mid season IDK.

The frosh are looking well ahead of where most frosh are usually at. 13 and 9 rebounds is awesome for the whole game let alone for half the game. Good to see Daniel hit some 3's...the early practice reports were that he can shoot a ball so Hopefully that's what we get from now. Reed seems to make everything he looks at right now...except for the FT's.

As for Rob's injury...I would expect some kind of 25-15 split with MAW and DDJ at PG...maybe 30-10 but that's 10 more minutes to divide up for Skillings and more indirectly Reed.

I think Hensley is our best defender with Rob/Newman out. He can guard almost anyone and gets into position well off the ball as well. EvanMiya pretty much agrees with me (only Reed is higher rated, on pretty few possessions). The problem is Hensley's rebounding is horrible for his size (his rebound percentage is worse than Phinisee's) and he doesn't bring a lot on offense either. I'm not sure why he struggles so much at rebounding, he has the physical traits to be good to great at it, but seems very hesitant to pursue the ball.

Skillings release is pretty slow. My guess is that he misses when he tries to rush to get the shot off in time. But he doesn't need to be great on offense (yet) when his rebounding is excellent and defense is steadily improving. Bryant's poor defense gave him time to not have to rush. Reed's release on the other hand is quick and smooth. But he needs more work on the defensive end.

I'm guessing the split will be closer to 30-10 in competitive games. Wes has been been reducing the bench steadily. Though if Skillings can play well enough at SG, it may get closer to 25-15.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by skyblade

I think Hensley is our best defender with Rob/Newman out. He can guard almost anyone and gets into position well off the ball as well. EvanMiya pretty much agrees with me (only Reed is higher rated, on pretty few possessions). The problem is Hensley's rebounding is horrible for his size (his rebound percentage is worse than Phinisee's) and he doesn't bring a lot on offense either. I'm not sure why he struggles so much at rebounding, he has the physical traits to be good to great at it, but seems very hesitant to pursue the ball.

Skillings release is pretty slow. My guess is that he misses when he tries to rush to get the shot off in time. But he doesn't need to be great on offense (yet) when his rebounding is excellent and defense is steadily improving. Bryant's poor defense gave him time to not have to rush. Reed's release on the other hand is quick and smooth. But he needs more work on the defensive end.

I'm guessing the split will be closer to 30-10 in competitive games. Wes has been been reducing the bench steadily. Though if Skillings can play well enough at SG, it may get closer to 25-15.

My worry is that Hensley can only play one guy at a time...I guess whoever is heating up. Really need Skillings and Reed to get up to speed fast to see if they can help on D. A team like X will have multiple guys to keep track of but we have one stopper now. Hoping Newman can come back at some point as well. Offensively I think we can hang.

Rob going out may move DDJ to the PG more....but I think it also means Hensley will have to play more if Skillings and Reed aren't capable of picking up the slack on D. We know what all the starters are capable of.

[TheRealMick]

Aye Skyblade, Waterhead, Sedziobs, or anybody else that might know. Is Kenpom good site use for sports gambling? Are the lines on point?

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by TheRealMick

Aye Skyblade, Waterhead, Sedziobs, or anybody else that might know. Is Kenpom good site use for sports gambling? Are the lines on point?

For one site I think Kenpom is a good choice especially as the year goes on. But the early season is weighted for what happened last season and I am not sure when that data cuts out from last year. The Massey Composite accumulates metrics and data from many many different "expert" sites so that could be better early season and maybe even all season.

Also you gotta obviously figure in injuries etc (for betting) and I am not sure most of the metrics sites can do that. So Rob is out and Newman is out but the metrics aren't accounting for that on a game by game basis. Metrics have no idea who is out.

In short the lines are on point as you can get probably...Kenpom is better than Sagarin. But maybe not better than Vegas. Check Kenpom and The Massey compared to Vegas lines and see if there is any noticeable difference. Checking 2 sources gives you a tie breaker on your own gut feel. they will likely be very close in spread...but not always

[sedziobs]

I'm sure oddmakers use sites like Kenpom to set the lines. But Vegas can factor in things like injuries that stat sites aren't built to handle. Kenpom is a good starting point. If the Vegas line is way different than what Kenpom shows, there is probably a reason for it.

[TheRealMick]

Originally Posted by waterhead

For one site I think Kenpom is a good choice especially as the year goes on. But the early season is weighted for what happened last season and I am not sure when that data cuts out from last year. The Massey Composite accumulates metrics and data from many many different "expert" sites so that could be better early season and maybe even all season.

Also you gotta obviously figure in injuries etc (for betting) and I am not sure most of the metrics sites can do that. So Rob is out and Newman is out but the metrics aren't accounting for that on a game by game basis. Metrics have no idea who is out.

In short the lines are on point as you can get probably...Kenpom is better than Sagarin. But maybe not better than Vegas. Check Kenpom and The Massey compared to Vegas lines and see if there is any noticeable difference. Checking 2 sources gives you a tie breaker on your own gut feel. they will likely be very close in spread...but not always

Thanks! Didn't know injuries weren't factored into the numbers. So does vegas factor in injuries on college level?