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Old 03-18-2019, 06:56 PM   #1
hawk_a_holic
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About the Hawkeyes from a Hawkeye

I come in peace. I watched every game the past 33 years except in 2006 when 14 Northwestern State beat 3 Iowa in the 1st round. Taped it and deleted it. Anyways, I picked you to win and go to the Elite 8 but here is a synopsis of Iowa and what to expect. Player rundown:

Cook- 6-9 Jr. Leading scorer and very quick and explosive. Good hook shot but no offense at all beyond 5 feet. Decent rebounder but not great (8 per game). 67% foul shooter and goes to the line a lot.

Garza 6-11 SO. 13 ppg and a good center under the basket and shoots the 3 fairly well. 83 % foul shooter as well. Pretty tough but is a HORRENDOUS rebounder at 4.5 per game. At least 3 times a game the ball is just taken from him. Also, when he is under the basket and he puts it on the deck, well, good for you for forcing another TO.

Weiskamp- 6-6 FR. 11ppg and had a strong year and hit the game winner at Rutgers. One of the only guys athletic enough to finish at the rim. Great rebounder for a 3.

Bohannon- 6-1 JR He needs like 3 more triples to set the all time record at Iowa and has a whole year left. He can go 35 minutes as a pedestrian and then go off for 15 points at will late. Easily best clutch player at Iowa and one of the best clutch players I've ever seen at any level. Indiana's radio guys only Reggie Miller was as clutch as he has been. 90% foul shooter and primary ball handler. He is SLOW on defense but can hit a 25 footer with a guy in his face as well. An absolute 2 trying to play the 1.


Moss- 6-6 JR. Great shooter usually and a guy who can go off and score an insane amount in a short period. Had 19 points in 90 seconds in a game last year nailing 3's and he is an 80 plus % FT shooter. Worst handles of a guard this side of 9th grade when penetrating but can create shot. He is either on fire or total non-factor. You will know 10 minutes into the game which one shows up.


BENCH
Kriener at 6'9 and Baer at 6'7 most relevant and probably the keys to beating Cincinnati if we are going to do it. Kriener is tough and fairly skilled around the basket and physical. Baer will do everything well except hit free throws. Baer could be a leading scorer.


Iowa leads the nation in FT attempts and hits as a team at about 74%. My biggest hope for an Iowa win (remember I picked you to win and actually get to Elite 8) is we draw fouls and get your bigs in trouble so we can feed Cook, Garza, Baer and Kriener. That would open up our 3 and when we establish the paint and get the opponents big man in foul trouble, we get to the bonus and free throw the opponent to death late especially with a 90% FT shooter as our primary ball handler. We will be very much out athlete. That won't be a question. This is how a very (white) generally slow team won 22 overall and 10 conference wins in arguably the toughest conf. in the nation top to bottom.


I pick Cincy 72 Iowa 69. Iowa will hold Cumberland to about his average of 18 up to about 21 but will focus on him and do OK. Like Harper (7 point per game scorer at Rutgers) getting his career high of 21 and then 27 both against Iowa or the 2 ppg guy at Ohio State who had 8 3'w and 29 points against us, history says one of your 6-8 ppg guys will go off and be the difference to a narrow win.

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Old 03-18-2019, 07:07 PM   #2
mdchick
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Was curious if you guys were upset with it being in Columbus
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:10 PM   #3
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Kind of. Seeing Minnesota get Des Moines as a 10 (3 hours south) and we get a draw that should be a 5, 6 at worst. Iowa gets a 6 loss Cincinnati who just beat Houston by 12 and Minnesota gets a 13 loss Louisville. Getting the Bearcats in Ohio is added insult to injury.
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:29 PM   #4
mdchick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawk_a_holic View Post
Kind of. Seeing Minnesota get Des Moines as a 10 (3 hours south) and we get a draw that should be a 5, 6 at worst. Iowa gets a 6 loss Cincinnati who just beat Houston by 12 and Minnesota gets a 13 loss Louisville. Getting the Bearcats in Ohio is added insult to injury.
Yeah my thoughts are I donít mind not getting a 5/6 seed if we got a 7 in Columbus, to say we travel descent would be generous so with it being 90-100 miles away I would hope itís going to be a home game for us. If you guys do win, Tennessee isnít as close as the like, but they do travel well, Iíd be interested to see how there turnout will be in Columbus.
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:55 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawk_a_holic View Post
I come in peace. I watched every game the past 33 years except in 2006 when 14 Northwestern State beat 3 Iowa in the 1st round. Taped it and deleted it. Anyways, I picked you to win and go to the Elite 8 but here is a synopsis of Iowa and what to expect. Player rundown:

Cook- 6-9 Jr. Leading scorer and very quick and explosive. Good hook shot but no offense at all beyond 5 feet. Decent rebounder but not great (8 per game). 67% foul shooter and goes to the line a lot.

Garza 6-11 SO. 13 ppg and a good center under the basket and shoots the 3 fairly well. 83 % foul shooter as well. Pretty tough but is a HORRENDOUS rebounder at 4.5 per game. At least 3 times a game the ball is just taken from him. Also, when he is under the basket and he puts it on the deck, well, good for you for forcing another TO.

Weiskamp- 6-6 FR. 11ppg and had a strong year and hit the game winner at Rutgers. One of the only guys athletic enough to finish at the rim. Great rebounder for a 3.

Bohannon- 6-1 JR He needs like 3 more triples to set the all time record at Iowa and has a whole year left. He can go 35 minutes as a pedestrian and then go off for 15 points at will late. Easily best clutch player at Iowa and one of the best clutch players I've ever seen at any level. Indiana's radio guys only Reggie Miller was as clutch as he has been. 90% foul shooter and primary ball handler. He is SLOW on defense but can hit a 25 footer with a guy in his face as well. An absolute 2 trying to play the 1.


Moss- 6-6 JR. Great shooter usually and a guy who can go off and score an insane amount in a short period. Had 19 points in 90 seconds in a game last year nailing 3's and he is an 80 plus % FT shooter. Worst handles of a guard this side of 9th grade when penetrating but can create shot. He is either on fire or total non-factor. You will know 10 minutes into the game which one shows up.


BENCH
Kriener at 6'9 and Baer at 6'7 most relevant and probably the keys to beating Cincinnati if we are going to do it. Kriener is tough and fairly skilled around the basket and physical. Baer will do everything well except hit free throws. Baer could be a leading scorer.


Iowa leads the nation in FT attempts and hits as a team at about 74%. My biggest hope for an Iowa win (remember I picked you to win and actually get to Elite 8) is we draw fouls and get your bigs in trouble so we can feed Cook, Garza, Baer and Kriener. That would open up our 3 and when we establish the paint and get the opponents big man in foul trouble, we get to the bonus and free throw the opponent to death late especially with a 90% FT shooter as our primary ball handler. We will be very much out athlete. That won't be a question. This is how a very (white) generally slow team won 22 overall and 10 conference wins in arguably the toughest conf. in the nation top to bottom.


I pick Cincy 72 Iowa 69. Iowa will hold Cumberland to about his average of 18 up to about 21 but will focus on him and do OK. Like Harper (7 point per game scorer at Rutgers) getting his career high of 21 and then 27 both against Iowa or the 2 ppg guy at Ohio State who had 8 3'w and 29 points against us, history says one of your 6-8 ppg guys will go off and be the difference to a narrow win.
Thanks for the breakdown. I hope you are right about the Cats making to to the elite 8. I got them losing in the sweet 16 to Nova.
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:57 PM   #6
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Good breakdown, I disagree with your best hope though. Brooks can get into foul trouble, but we have two solid backup centers. Nsoseme is stronger and a better rebounder (but a non-factor on offense) and Diarra is extremely atheletic but raw, but can still play D and block a lot of shots.

Scott our 6'8" pf almost never gets into foul trouble.

I'd say your best hope is for someone to go off from 3. We don't always defend the 3 well and we have a history of guys going off on us from 3 even when we do defend it well. Typically it's a backup who doesn't usually shoot very often, but goes crazy against us.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:10 PM   #7
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Welcome. I think I speak for the majority of our fan base when I say we consider you all a very formidable opponent and know that it'll take one of our best efforts of the year to beat you all.

Here is a brief rundown of our season and roster. Feel free to share it on any of your fan boards.

Overall: Because we lost 3 NBA-level talents from last year (2 currently on NBA rosters, 1 in the G-league) expectations weren't incredibly high going into this year. We were predicted to finish 2nd in the AAC (a much more competitive league than many Iowa fans may think) but many of us didn't think we would achieve a high NCAA seed if we even made the tournament.

As for how our season went, our record and even AAC tournament championship indicate that we overachieved a little. However, our season featured several games where we lost to inferior competition (OSU opener, @ECU) and barely beat many conference foes we were ranked much higher than. We struggled to put teams away in the final minutes of games but always made the key plays when it counted to win.

PG - Justin Jenifer (6'0): The quintessential "game manager". Doesn't take too many risks with the ball (which results in a good assist/turnover ratio) but is easily taken out of games (completely) by good competition. On a good night he'll hit a couple of 3s for us as he is our best "catch and shoot" guy.

SG - Jarron Cumberland (6'5): The ultimate "alpha". Wants the ball, gets the ball, makes plays with the ball. While not an athletic marvel, he is the biggest gamer we have had since Sean Kilpatrick, and he has the ability to score in practically every way possible. He also is our best passer and a solid positional rebounder as well. He hit a snag during our tough stretch to end the regular season but bounced back from it in the AAC tournament and will playing with the utmost confidence on Friday.

SF - Keith Williams (SF): He was buried at the end of the bench as a true freshman last year due to struggling to adjust to the game speed of high major D1 basketball. Showed flashes of elite athleticism and a natural ability to get to the rim. His game matured greatly over the offseason and he made the other starting wing spot his own from day 1. His outside jump shot is still quite spotty but on the average night he'll give us a quiet 8-12 points.

PF - Trevon Scott (6'8): Utility big man that does a lot of things average-slightly above average but nothing great. Could give us 18 and 10 on one night and then 2 and 2 the next night - both in 30 minutes of play. He really stepped up his game in the AAC tournament where he averaged 14 and 9 and hit some big 3-point shots.

C - Nysier Brooks (6'11): Like Scott (and to an extent Jenifer and Williams), he can easily disappear from games on the offensive end, but serves as a solid rim protector and rebounder for us more often that not. His offensive game is strictly back-to-the-basket and he sadly was a burden from the FT line in the AAC tournament going 6 for 16 (despite shooting 63% on the year). His physicality down low could give you all some problems though, especially if he avoids foul trouble.

Sixth Man: Cane Broome (6'0): The only other senior on our squad besides Jenifer, Broome is the change-of-pace, shoot-first option at PG who can also play off-the-ball in smaller line-ups. He's had struggles hitting outside shots consistently but his 6 for 11 clip from distance in the AAC tournament is indicative of a positive turnaround that will hopefully continue going into Friday's match-up.

Rest of the bench: We can go 11 deep if needed but everyone else will ideally just play spot minutes for us on Friday. The remaining players are all solid athletes and capable defenders, so no matter who is on the floor we will continue to employ a switch-everything man-defense that has proven sufficient for the better part of the season.

Friday outlook: Like you, I anticipate a tight game that will likely be decided by less than 5 points. I predict a back-and-forth first half, an early 2nd half run by us to form a 8-10 point lead, a late run by you all off the strength of your 3-point shooting, and a very exciting finish.

Cincinnati 69 Iowa 65
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:14 PM   #8
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I will add that when we are not at home, we don't play defense...like, at all. If you hit a few 3s against us, our defense is cartoonishly bad and can't stop you from going on a scoring run. Ohio State had problems scoring 60, so we shipped them 90. During the Big Ten season, Nebraska scored 80 points exactly twice...both against Iowa. The list goes on and on. You very well may blow us out and say "Where has this been?", but it will be a bit of a mirage.

We play a mixed bag on defense, the only real reason we do that is because we can't do any of them well at all. The most marginally effective is the 1-2-2 three quarter court press which is mostly just used to make you waste 8 seconds getting across the half court line so as to minimize opportunities to break them down.

We do have a pretty good arsenal of shooters but our entire back court is hot and cold, and only Weiskamp is a real threat to consistently take someone on the dribble and finish, but he is a freshman who tends to get under-utilized if we get to obsessed with trying to get the others rolling. Bohannon, Moss and Weiskamp will either have a 20+ point game or only be seen on a milk carton. There are games where none of them really get going at all.

Not already mentioned was Conner McCaffery, who actually played in the 3 game series with the Iowa baseball team this weekend after we were eliminated from the BTT. As you might imagine his play gets highly criticized. He is a very good but raw athlete with a pretty good IQ. He can pick out some great passes and is probably the closest thing we have to a point guard who can distribute the ball. He can take it inside and draw fouls and the occasional and-1, but so far he has absolutely no jump shot, and everyone just sags way off of him, daring him to shoot over the top, limiting his effectiveness since basically the first month of the season.

One thing I would worry about more with Iowa in the tourney is that these games often tend to be a bit more tightly called than regular season games, especially as it gets late on in the Big Ten season. If there's a ton of whistles and Iowa gets to the line a lot, we do a ton of damage from there. Everyone in the starting 5 except Cook is good at the line, and as noted, Bohannon is especially great...but even Garza is a tremendous foul shooter for a big man.

The other concern would be that Bohannon is especially money in pressure situations and this is the biggest stage for him to date. He can come out of nowhere and go nuts when you're playing the same defense that worked on him for 35 minutes. We haven't had a "clutch" performer like him in at least 20 years. If it's close in the last four minutes, the Nebraska game notwithstanding, Iowa will have confidence that they can win. The best way to counter this is that Iowa is not a difficult team to beat by 20.
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Old 03-18-2019, 09:30 PM   #9
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Yeah the interesting thing with both these teams is the fact that they both won a lot of close games. Neither will panic if close.
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Old 03-18-2019, 10:13 PM   #10
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Good breakdown, I disagree with your best hope though. Brooks can get into foul trouble, but we have two solid backup centers. Nsoseme is stronger and a better rebounder (but a non-factor on offense) and Diarra is extremely atheletic but raw, but can still play D and block a lot of shots.
this is pretty generous, man. nsoseme hasn't been stronger or better on the boards than brooks in months.

i think some of our folks don't give enough credit to the work brooks does inside for positioning that allows others to rebound.
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