Go Back   BearcatTalk.com > Cincinnati Basketball > Bearcat Basketball

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-22-2018, 12:11 PM   #1
david aka the TYZ
Epic Member
 
david aka the TYZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Mason area
Posts: 2,978
david aka the TYZ will become famous soon enough
new metric

https://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa-replaces-rpi-new-ncaa-tournament-selection-metric-154236270.html
NCAA replaces RPI with new March Madness selection metric


Just saw this. Very interesting and applies to about half our in season arguments. Curious to see this play out this year and in the future. Welcome to the term NET in all future rants on this board

david aka the TYZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 01:23 PM   #2
cincrulz11
Epic Member
 
cincrulz11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 2,681
cincrulz11 is on a distinguished road
sounds worlds better than rpi. 10 point cap for win margin might be too low though.
cincrulz11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 04:53 PM   #3
sedziobs
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 499
sedziobs is on a distinguished road
This is a nice surprise. Looks like they're keeping the quadrant and team sheet system that was introduced last year. So we'll still have some basis for comparing resumes and projecting seeds.
sedziobs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 05:05 PM   #4
david aka the TYZ
Epic Member
 
david aka the TYZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Mason area
Posts: 2,978
david aka the TYZ will become famous soon enough
Yeah the 10 point cap seems low to me as well, but I do like the idea of it being capped. Not sure what a better cap would be. Maybe 20?

Wish they had more info on everything it factors in
david aka the TYZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 05:14 PM   #5
david aka the TYZ
Epic Member
 
david aka the TYZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Mason area
Posts: 2,978
david aka the TYZ will become famous soon enough
I will say if any team will be advantaged by a ten point cap it could be UC cause we don't seem to blow a lot of teams out we should. We'll beat a team by 13 that we coulda, shoulda, woulda beat by 30 more often than not it seems
david aka the TYZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 06:38 PM   #6
GarradJ21
Epic Member
 
GarradJ21's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Cincinnati
Posts: 1,653
GarradJ21 is on a distinguished road
I wonder how this will affect the game itself. I mean a team has a ball up 8 and the other team decides not to foul since there’s only 5 seconds remaining. Does the team with the ball try to score?
GarradJ21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-27-2018, 11:43 AM   #7
sedziobs
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 499
sedziobs is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by cincrulz11 View Post
you'll probably have fun with NET. i guess we'll get to see if its any better than RPI was.


ive read a few things about it i dont like, capping wins at 10 points, and the quality of your opponent doesn't matter for the stats you put up (holding duke to .98 ppp is the same as holding arkansas-pine bluff to .98ppp) but im not sure if thats actually true or people misinterpreting the data.


if it is true, it is probably a big benefit to us considering our schedule. rpi sucked but was actually great for us last year.
I thought it would be good to have a separate thread for NET.

The RPI is dead. The quadrant system remains, but NET will be used instead of RPI. The main improvements are the inclusion of tempo and scoring margin. The main drawback is the 10 pt margin cap, which seems too low to me. I think 15 would be better.

The algorithm components are different, but efficiency is still adjusted for opponents in the final result. So .98ppp vs AK-PB is the same as .98ppp vs Duke in terms of efficiency, but it is adjusted separately to account for schedule strength (opponent and location). Kenpom does the same thing. His rankings are based on adjusted efficiency, which start with raw efficiency. RPI didn't account for efficiency at all. Overall I think it's a huge improvement.

The biggest challenge this season will be in predicting what will happen to the NET rankings as the season progresses. Last year, we were able to use a variety of RPI forecasting tools that ran monte carlo simulations based on the simple RPI formula. Now we are sort of flying blind, and will be limited to analyzing the rankings in the present.

Cincinnati is currently ranked #46. It's way too early to be very meaningful. Unlike Kenpom, NET does not include any pre-season projections. RPI did not either. In another month we'll have a better idea of how good teams, and especially conferences, are.
sedziobs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-27-2018, 11:54 AM   #8
cincrulz11
Epic Member
 
cincrulz11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 2,681
cincrulz11 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
The algorithm components are different, but efficiency is still adjusted for opponents in the final result. So .98ppp vs AK-PB is the same as .98ppp vs Duke in terms of efficiency, but it is adjusted separately to account for schedule strength (opponent and location). Kenpom does the same thing. His rankings are based on adjusted efficiency, which start with raw efficiency. RPI didn't account for efficiency at all. Overall I think it's a huge improvement.

right but doesn't NET use 5 components to get your overall rating. so your game results factored in from strength of opponent is just 1 of the components. Then your raw efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted win percentage (adjusted for home, neutral, road), and scoring margin (capped at 10).



im not sure if each component is weighted the same or not. if they are all the same, that seems to benefit teams that beat up bad opponents.
cincrulz11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-27-2018, 12:01 PM   #9
sedziobs
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 499
sedziobs is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by cincrulz11 View Post
right but doesn't NET use 5 components to get your overall rating. so your game results factored in from strength of opponent is just 1 of the components. Then your raw efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted win percentage (adjusted for home, neutral, road), and scoring margin (capped at 10).

im not sure if each component is weighted the same or not. if they are all the same, that seems to benefit teams that beat up bad opponents.
We don't know what the weights are, but they aren't all the same. They used a machine learning algorithm to develop a model that determined what weights gave the best hindcast results. Assuming it's properly calibrated, this would be an improvement over even Kenpom. I'm a little worried that it might be overfitted (meaning it predicts past results with past data really well, but not necessarily future ones - it could be overconfident that it can predict randomness). It's possible it will adjust the weightings in real time to correct itself.

Last edited by sedziobs; 11-27-2018 at 12:03 PM.
sedziobs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-27-2018, 12:04 PM   #10
cincrulz11
Epic Member
 
cincrulz11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 2,681
cincrulz11 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
We don't know what the weights are, but they aren't all the same. They used a machine learning algorithm to develop a model that determined what weights gave the best hindcast results. Assuming it's properly calibrated, this would be an improvement over even Kenpom. I'm a little worried that it might be overfitted (meaning it predicts past results with past data really well, but not necessarily future ones - it could be overconfident that it can predict randomness). It's possible it will adjust the weightings in real time to correct itself.

well then that sounds much better than the ranting nate silver has been doing on twitter.
cincrulz11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd., - All material on this Cincinnati Bearcat discussion forum is strictly for entertainment purposes only. This site and any pages within are in no way affiliated with the University of Cincinnati. Any images, copyrights, or trademarks used on this site are used under the "Fair Use Provision" of the Copyright Act for purposes of comment, criticism, and news reporting.