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Old 01-14-2020, 09:19 AM   #21
sedziobs
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Good analysis Waterhead. Those thin margins are why I put so much effort into tracking our quadrant records. 12-6 in conference (19-11 overall) won't cut it with only 14 Q1/Q2 games in my opinion. That would be 5-9 in quality games with two bad losses. 7-9 in quality games could give us a chance, but 9-9 is probably needed (that would mean Temple and SMU move back up, and a couple other teams like UConn and USF also).

Of course a better record than 12-6 makes things easier.
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Old 01-16-2020, 09:26 AM   #22
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Q1
17 @Ohio St
19 Wichita St
19 @Wichita St
28 Memphis
28 @Memphis
30 Iowa
43 @Houston
69 @Xavier
71 @Temple

Q2
43 Houston
71 Temple
72 Tennessee
90 @UConn
112 @Tulane
113 @UCF

Q3
84 SMU
90 UConn
94 Vermont
96 Tulsa
113 UCF
130 Colgate
136 @USF
140 Drake
151 Bowling Green
152 UNLV
156 Valpo
237 @ECU

Q4
207 Illinois St
237 ECU
305 Alabama A&M
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Old 01-23-2020, 06:38 AM   #23
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We rose 7 spots to 56 after beating Temple.


Tulsa rose 19 spots to 66 after last night's Memphis massacre giving us our 4th Q2 win of the season (along with Tenn, @UCF, @Temple).

On the downside, Memphis dropped 15 spots to 41, which no longer makes our home game with them Q1.

SMU, who sits at 70 right now, could be our 5th Q2 win if we beat them at home next Tuesday.
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Old 01-23-2020, 08:07 AM   #24
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Q1
18 @Ohio St
22 Iowa
30 Wichita St
30 @Wichita St
34 @Houston
41 @Memphis
61 @Xavier

Q2
34 Houston
41 Memphis
58 Tennessee
66 Tulsa
70 SMU
83 @Temple
87 @UConn
118 @UCF
126 @Tulane

Q3
83 Temple
87 UConn
103 Vermont
118 UCF
121 Colgate
137 @USF
134 UNLV
140 Drake
142 Valpo
163 Bowling Green

Q4
216 Illinois St
243 ECU
243 @ECU
333 Alabama A&M

Last edited by sedziobs; 01-23-2020 at 08:14 AM.
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Old 01-23-2020, 08:11 AM   #25
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I ran the teamcast again on T-rank. Chalked up losses to WSU and Houston away and one home loss to Houston...and all the rest wins. It came up as first team out. I switched the Houston home game to a win and Uconn to a loss and we were the 2nd last team in.

It's starting to look like 6 losses is not going to get the job done and even 5 is going to be right smack on the bubble line. No margin for error. Of course a good tourney performance could help a tiny bit if we can make the finals.
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Old 01-23-2020, 08:49 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
I ran the teamcast again on T-rank. Chalked up losses to WSU and Houston away and one home loss to Houston...and all the rest wins. It came up as first team out. I switched the Houston home game to a win and Uconn to a loss and we were the 2nd last team in.

It's starting to look like 6 losses is not going to get the job done and even 5 is going to be right smack on the bubble line. No margin for error. Of course a good tourney performance could help a tiny bit if we can make the finals.
I think we need a minimum of 5 Q1 wins to feel good about our at-large chances going into Selection Sunday.

If Wichita and Houston both finish top 30, then we would need to win at least 2 of those 4 regular season games - ideally 3 though.

Memphis is currently 41st, but if they win out at home and steal a few road games, there's a chance we can get a Q1 home win against them.

Temple could definitely flop going forward, but at 83 right now, it's not too crazy to think they could finish top 76 making last night's win a Q1.

If Temple can't come through for us, hopefully UConn can turn it around and rise from 87 to top 76 to make our away match-up Q1.

If we also make it to the AAC tournament semi-finals, we'll likely get Wichita, Memphis, or Houston as a Q1 match-up too.
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Old 01-23-2020, 10:16 AM   #27
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I think it's been so long since we've been a true bubble team that we've forgotten how bad those teams are. Here are the resumes for the First Four last year (Q1,Q2,bad losses):

Belmont (2-2,3-1,2)
Temple (2-6,6-2,1)
St Johns (5-7,5-3,2)
Arizona St (3-3,8-3,4)

St Johns is the only team that had more than three Q1 wins, but they also lost 12 games. Arizona St had more bad losses than Q1 wins! I think 13-5 in conference puts us right in with that group if we can get at least two Q1 wins. Our resume would look something like (2-5,6-3,2) going into the AAC tournament.

I think 12-6 (1-6,6-3,2) puts us around the first four out per bracketmatrix:

TCU (3-10,8-4,0)
NC St (3-9,5-1,2)
Indiana (6-9,3-6,1)
Clemson (1-10,6-3,1)
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Old 01-24-2020, 08:48 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I think it's been so long since we've been a true bubble team that we've forgotten how bad those teams are. Here are the resumes for the First Four last year (Q1,Q2,bad losses):

Belmont (2-2,3-1,2)
Temple (2-6,6-2,1)
St Johns (5-7,5-3,2)
Arizona St (3-3,8-3,4)

St Johns is the only team that had more than three Q1 wins, but they also lost 12 games. Arizona St had more bad losses than Q1 wins! I think 13-5 in conference puts us right in with that group if we can get at least two Q1 wins. Our resume would look something like (2-5,6-3,2) going into the AAC tournament.

I think 12-6 (1-6,6-3,2) puts us around the first four out per bracketmatrix:

TCU (3-10,8-4,0)
NC St (3-9,5-1,2)
Indiana (6-9,3-6,1)
Clemson (1-10,6-3,1)
Thanks for sharing. That does put things into perspective quite a bit and shows that we are very much still in control of our own destiny with the ability to get big wins in winnable match-ups.

I found it amusing Lunardi just added Tulsa to his field of 68 today despite Tulsa being 8 spots below us in NET with 0 Q1 wins (0-2), a worse Q2 record (3-3), and a Q4 loss (although we do have 2 Q3 losses).
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Old 01-24-2020, 12:27 PM   #29
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That's because Tulsa is winning the Conference at the moment, while UC is not.
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Old 01-24-2020, 01:39 PM   #30
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Quote:
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That's because Tulsa is winning the Conference at the moment, while UC is not.
Yea conference leader always gets a spot
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