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Old 01-09-2020, 09:26 AM   #11
sedziobs
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All of the committee members are human, so they can make decisions however they want (like a jury). Technically the criteria is team sheet though. Quadrant records dominate team sheets. ESPN BPI, Kenpom, Sagarin, and non-conference are also on there though. Those will hurt us. Not on the team sheet is "Last 10 games" or something like that.

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Old 01-09-2020, 09:34 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
All of the committee members are human, so they can make decisions however they want (like a jury). Technically the criteria is team sheet though. Quadrant records dominate team sheets. ESPN BPI, Kenpom, Sagarin, and non-conference are also on there though. Those will hurt us. Not on the team sheet is "Last 10 games" or something like that.
I guess I am wondering about the bubble where team sheets would/should be somewhat the same. I guess it would be similar to seeding teams when deciding between 2 teams with similar team sheets. I think what you are saying is then it becomes more of a gut feel by individuals at that point.

Do they each rank teams from 1 to 64 and turn in their ballot?
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Old 01-09-2020, 09:47 AM   #13
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It's a long process (detailed here). These are the first two steps:

Quote:
Each committee member will submit the ballot by a designated time on the first full day of selection meetings:

a. In the first column, each member shall identify not more than 36 teams that, in that member’s opinion, should be at- large selections (AL) in the tournament based upon play to date, regardless of whether the team could eventually represent its conference as the automatic qualifier.

b. In the second column, each member shall identify all teams that should receive consideration (C) for an at- large berth. There is no minimum or maximum limit in the second column; however, only teams meriting serious consideration should receive votes.
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Old 01-10-2020, 09:32 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I'll try to make this a weekly update.

Q1
14 @Ohio St
10Wichita St
10 @Wichita St
24 Memphis
24 @Memphis
67 @Temple
38 @Houston
43 Iowa
54 @Xavier

Q2
60 SMU
67 Temple
38 Houston
68 Tennessee
88 @UConn
105 @UCF
116 @Tulane

Q3
88 UConn
103 Vermont
105 UCF
113 Tulsa
133 Colgate
169 Valpo
139 Drake
177 Bowling Green
137 @USF
236 @ECU

Q4
163 UNLV
212 Illinois St
236 ECU
296 Alabama A&M
I can't imagine a scenario we're in as an at-large unless we're 3-3 in these games:
10Wichita St
10 @Wichita St
24 Memphis
24 @Memphis
67 @Temple
38 @Houston
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Old 01-12-2020, 10:41 AM   #15
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Margin of victory/ppp mattering is the best thing that gives us a chance. We moved from the mid 90's all the way to 65 after these two games.

Still need a lot to go our way for an at large, but they at least are drawing live to get in.
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Old 01-12-2020, 07:29 PM   #16
sedziobs
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Temple and SMU were both knocked out of the top 75 this weekend. UCF is barely hanging on to a top 135 spot. Earlier I said we want Tulsa and ECU to lose every game. They're 4-2 combined. We're not getting the help we need in conference.
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Old 01-12-2020, 07:59 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Temple and SMU were both knocked out of the top 75 this weekend. UCF is barely hanging on to a top 135 spot. Earlier I said we want Tulsa and ECU to lose every game. They're 4-2 combined. We're not getting the help we need in conference.
We are fine - we are definitely not at the point where we need help from Tulsa and ECU.
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Old 01-13-2020, 08:41 AM   #18
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Tulsa and ECU wins take away Q1 and Q2 games for us. It's as simple as that. At least two were taken away this weekend.
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Old 01-13-2020, 10:12 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Tulsa and ECU wins take away Q1 and Q2 games for us. It's as simple as that. At least two were taken away this weekend.
Still like that 12-6 (in conference) number Sedziobs. One way or another that is likely going to mean we get some Q1 and Q2 wins. Maybe just enough to sneak in.

I DEFINITELY think 13-5 is in and 11-7 is out.
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Old 01-14-2020, 09:01 AM   #20
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Still like that 12-6 (in conference) number Sedziobs. One way or another that is likely going to mean we get some Q1 and Q2 wins. Maybe just enough to sneak in.

I DEFINITELY think 13-5 is in and 11-7 is out.
I ran a simulation on T-rank with 6 losses. Away at Tulane, Memphis, Houston, WSU, and Uconn and one home loss to WSU.

It came up as first 4 teams out. Change Uconn or WSU to a win and we are last 4 in. Add one more loss and we are the 10th team in the out category.

A lot can change of course with a weak or strong bubble but the 5 or 6 losses could be a razor thin margin.
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