2023-24 roster

[Queens_NYC]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

The NCAA put out a memo yesterday stating that they are going to be much more strict about two-time undergraduate transfers. Waivers will no longer be granted for common reasons like coaching changes, lack of playing time, or switching majors. It's being limited to things like documented mental health or discrimination issues.

This muddies the situation a bit for Hensley, who would have to sit out a year if he decides to leave. Everyone else on our roster has either not transferred yet or should be a graduate. But in general these rules should shrink the size and quality of the portal some, at least for younger players.

With all the people on payroll in the basketball program it doesn't seem like it would be that hard to whip up a couple reports of Hensley visiting the campus student clinic to get support with "mental health issues".

You'd like to think that his drastic minutes reduction midseason had to be part of a greater master plan.

[Queens_NYC]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Agreed. I can understand Sage not playing so he could redshirt. But especially when Lakhin was injured and our NCAA chances were nil, Hensley and Reed should have been playing if Wes had any confidence in them at all. It's hard to see them making the leap from 0 minutes to 15.

Hensley definitely had a stronger case for spot minutes here and there.

Unfortunately for him, the limited minutes available beyond Kalu's were mostly given to Reed.

Here are Reed's numbers from January 12th until the end of the season:

15 games, 67 minutes, 0-11 FG (0-7 3FG), 0 points

I get that his game involves more than scoring (he also had 11 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2 assists), but that's still a pretty damning stat line.

He is either hit a hump while navigating a steep freshman learning curve or is definitively outmatched at this level of competition.

[skyblade]

It seems like Wes's philosophy is that player development happens in practice, not so much in games. He plays the guys who he thinks give the best chance to win and those minutes are earned in practice.

If a guy isn't earning those minutes in practice, he's not going to magically develop in games. It seems he values that philosophy more than giving young guys minutes to help them develop for next year.

Reed followed the normal course of development for a freshman, he didn't play much. That's too be expected and doesn't mean he's a bust. Most freshmen don't contribute all that much in year one.

Hensley could probably use some visits to a sports therapist. His problem is more mental than physical. He has the athleticism and the physical ability, but he plays scared. Scared of contact, of making a mistake, of fully committing to a play. If he can figure it out, he could still make a big jump and earn minutes quickly with his defensive ability. His defense was excellent, but his rebounding and offense were terrible this year. As I've said before, I've mostly given up hope on him and expect him to transfer, but if Wes believes he can turn it around I don't have a problem with Hensley staying another year.

Sage we don't know much of anything about. He has had a year to bulk up and supposedly has a pretty diverse offensive skill set. Best case he could provide 10-15 quality minutes next year.

Davenport is the main guy I just can't see playing more than 5-10 minutes next year. He's outmatched athletically in the AAC. I just can't see how he makes it in the Big 12.

[skyblade]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

If we're looking at Sage and Hensley taking roster spots as projects next year, then we don't have any dependable front court depth. I think we need a veteran guard, whether that's MAW or a transfer. So we are left needing to replace Davenport with a big if everyone else stays. It will be interesting to see who enters the portal over the next couple weeks.

I think we need another guard even if MAW stays. I don't think we can count on Jizzle to provide quality minutes (nothing against Jizzle, just that freshmen usually don't, even top 100 ones). Day Day is a bit of a mystery coming from JUCO. Plus between even with both of them we only have 4 guys total who play PG/SG (MAW, Day Day, Skillings and Jizzle). Newman could probably slide to SG if needed, but he didn't provide a lot of offensive fire power (though he could have developed quite a bit).

SF is probably our most loaded position, even if Nolley leaves (I suspect he will). Newman, Skillings, Reed and Hensley can all play the 3.

Then bigs are also a mystery outside of Vik and Ody (both of whom we want to stay). Davenport, Hensley, Sage and Reed could provide enough depth best case scenario, but I want to add another veteran center to feel comfortable (especially with Vik's injury history).

I expect two of the three of Nolley, Davenport and Hensley not to return to make for the likely addition of two transfers.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by skyblade

It seems like Wes's philosophy is that player development happens in practice, not so much in games. He plays the guys who he thinks give the best chance to win and those minutes are earned in practice.

If a guy isn't earning those minutes in practice, he's not going to magically develop in games. It seems he values that philosophy more than giving young guys minutes to help them develop for next year.

Reed followed the normal course of development for a freshman, he didn't play much. That's too be expected and doesn't mean he's a bust. Most freshmen don't contribute all that much in year one.

Hensley could probably use some visits to a sports therapist. His problem is more mental than physical. He has the athleticism and the physical ability, but he plays scared. Scared of contact, of making a mistake, of fully committing to a play. If he can figure it out, he could still make a big jump and earn minutes quickly with his defensive ability. His defense was excellent, but his rebounding and offense were terrible this year. As I've said before, I've mostly given up hope on him and expect him to transfer, but if Wes believes he can turn it around I don't have a problem with Hensley staying another year.

Sage we don't know much of anything about. He has had a year to bulk up and supposedly has a pretty diverse offensive skill set. Best case he could provide 10-15 quality minutes next year.

Davenport is the main guy I just can't see playing more than 5-10 minutes next year. He's outmatched athletically in the AAC. I just can't see how he makes it in the Big 12.

Well that's exactly the problem, if these guys aren't developing enough in practice to see the floor in games, we shouldn't be counting on them to magically develop over the offseason to the point where they are giving us 15 minutes in the Big 12. And if that's the case, we're stuck playing Davenport or Nolley at the 4. We really need another big who is a known quantity.

Day Day and Jizzle are unknowns (to us anyway), but I think between them we can count on at least 10 minutes. Jizzle is a similar caliber recruit as Skillings was, and Day Day at least has some experience at a higher level than high school with fewer than 3 turnovers per 40 minutes. I don't want to have 4 PG on the roster if it means we are thin on the front line. If Wes doesn't plan on those guys playing 20 minutes between them, then I think we have to replace MAW with a better veteran guard.

[skyblade]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Well that's exactly the problem, if these guys aren't developing enough in practice to see the floor in games, we shouldn't be counting on them to magically develop over the offseason to the point where they are giving us 15 minutes in the Big 12. And if that's the case, we're stuck playing Davenport or Nolley at the 4. We really need another big who is a known quantity.

Day Day and Jizzle are unknowns (to us anyway), but I think between them we can count on at least 10 minutes. Jizzle is a similar caliber recruit as Skillings was, and Day Day at least has some experience at a higher level than high school with fewer than 3 turnovers per 40 minutes. I don't want to have 4 PG on the roster if it means we are thin on the front line. If Wes doesn't plan on those guys playing 20 minutes between them, then I think we have to replace MAW with a better veteran guard.

Wes knows those guys better than he knows any tranfers. No matter what you are doing it's a gamble. Are the odds that Hensley develops better than the odds of getting a transfer who has a major impact? Keep in mind that the odds of a transfer panning out are only around 66% and get lower once you get below the top 100 or so guys.

I linked a tweet a while back that only around 7% of freshmen rated 26-100 per year are considered to have had a major impact. I don't know what the criteria for "major impact" were, but I think the odds are better than Jizzle and Rayvon have a first year closer to Josh Reed's than Skilling's. And even Skillings didn't have a year where you'd want him to be a key guy, he was a good enough role player who had major issues on defense. Day Day is making a jump from JuCo as well and isn't a sure thing, especially not early in the season.

Therein lies the problem. Jizzle and Day Day might be able to account for most of the PG minutes, but a scenario where Day Day averages 10-15 minutes and Jizzle close to 0 is just as (if not more) likely. Do you really think we can pull in a better PG than MAW (or even at his level) from the transfer portal when the message is probably "we hope you're a 10-15 minute bench guy, but if things don't pan out with other guys, you may be our lead PG"?.

We don't need a 4th PG, we need a CG/SG (or point forward) who can handle the ball in case of emergency and guard the 2.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by skyblade

I think we need another guard even if MAW stays. I don't think we can count on Jizzle to provide quality minutes (nothing against Jizzle, just that freshmen usually don't, even top 100 ones). Day Day is a bit of a mystery coming from JUCO. Plus between even with both of them we only have 4 guys total who play PG/SG (MAW, Day Day, Skillings and Jizzle). Newman could probably slide to SG if needed, but he didn't provide a lot of offensive fire power (though he could have developed quite a bit).

I look at Newman as a guard, regardless of scoring capacity. He plays on the wing, either the 2 or 3. If he's playing the 3 we essentially have a 3 guard lineup. Our current roster has 5 guards with 3 who can play point, same as we went into this season with. We can add more, but I think the priority right now has to be shoring up the interior.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by skyblade

Jizzle and Day Day might be able to account for most of the PG minutes, but a scenario where Day Day averages 10-15 minutes and Jizzle close to 0 is just as (if not more) likely. Do you really think we can pull in a better PG than MAW (or even at his level) from the transfer portal when the message is probably "we hope you're a 10-15 minute bench guy, but if things don't pan out with other guys, you may be our lead PG"?.

The message is you will be the starting PG on a Big 12 team. 10-15 minutes is all we expect from Day Day or Jizzle. They just need to provide backup duties and not turn the ball over. I absolutely think we can find a grad transfer PG who is better than MAW. I think the backup plan is if MAW stays and we're hoping that Jizzle and Day Day are good enough to reduce MAW below 20 minutes. We should find out shortly. Wes might already have a feel for who he can bring in, and whether MAW stays should answer the question.

If Nolley stays, I think we're in pretty good shape with Nolley/Newman/ Skillings/Rayvon on the wing. I'd take another wing if he's better than Skillings for sure though. I have high hopes for Skillings next year.

I don't have such high hopes for frontcourt depth right now. I like Lakhin in a starting role, and I think Ody is ideally a backup 4. Maybe we're ok at 5 if Sage can give is 15 minutes there. But surely we can find someone who is better than Sage, Hensley, and Reed.

My transfer priorities are a big first, followed by a veteran PG and then a wing.

[skyblade]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

The message is you will be the starting PG on a Big 12 team. 10-15 minutes is all we expect from Day Day or Jizzle. They just need to provide backup duties and not turn the ball over. I absolutely think we can find a grad transfer PG who is better than MAW. I think the backup plan is if MAW stays and we're hoping that Jizzle and Day Day are good enough to reduce MAW below 20 minutes. We should find out shortly. Wes might already have a feel for who he can bring in, and whether MAW stays should answer the question.

If Nolley stays, I think we're in pretty good shape with Nolley/Newman/ Skillings/Rayvon on the wing. I'd take another wing if he's better than Skillings for sure though. I have high hopes for Skillings next year.

I don't have such high hopes for frontcourt depth right now. I like Lakhin in a starting role, and I think Ody is ideally a backup 4. Maybe we're ok at 5 if Sage can give is 15 minutes there. But surely we can find someone who is better than Sage, Hensley, and Reed.

My transfer priorities are a big first, followed by a veteran PG and then a wing.

I think the plan is for Day Day/Jizzle to handle most of the PG duties (25ish minutes) and a veteran backup PG (like MAW) to provide the other 15 or more if the plan fails. If Day/Jizzle combine for under 20 minutes, then I agree that changes things, but I don't think getting a better PG than MAW from the transfer portal is an easy task. If MAW transfers he will probably be rated right around 100.

Priorities for me are big man, scorer (CG/SG), then doesn't really matter (best player available).

Ideally a starting center and move Vik to PF. Ody can backup both positions if Sage isn't ready. Sage as backup center and Ody as backup PF in the best case scenario.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by skyblade

I think the plan is for Day Day/Jizzle to handle most of the PG duties (25ish minutes) and a veteran backup PG (like MAW) to provide the other 15 or more if the plan fails. If Day/Jizzle combine for under 20 minutes, then I agree that changes things, but I don't think getting a better PG than MAW from the transfer portal is an easy task. If MAW transfers he will probably be rated right around 100.

Doing a quick scan on Torvik's portal page, I searched for combo guards by filtering for players with a minimum 18 assist rate and maximum 5 OReb rate. There are currently 27 with a PRPG of at least 2.0, better than MAW (on offense). 15 of them also have steal rates higher than MAW. I'd think a starting role in the Big 12 would be appealing to some of them.