Go Back   BearcatTalk.com > Cincinnati Basketball > Bearcat Basketball

View Poll Results: What will be our final AAC record?
14-4 or better 0 0%
13-5 0 0%
12-6 1 14.29%
11-7 2 28.57%
10-8 4 57.14%
9-9 0 0%
8-10 0 0%
7-11 or worse 0 0%
Voters: 7. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-26-2022, 01:38 PM   #1
Queens_NYC
Elite Member
 
Queens_NYC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,439
Queens_NYC is on a distinguished road
Conference Play Predictions

Current record: 9-4 (8-4 NET record)
KenPom Ranking: #71 (#58 AdjO, #79 AdjD)
NET Ranking: #115 (Q1: 0-2, Q2: 0-1, Q3: 1-0, Q4: 7-1)


Tulane - 12/29
@Temple - 1/1
@Wichita St - 1/5
Houston - 1/8
ECU - 1/11
@SMU - 1/14
@USF - 1/18
Memphis - 1/22
@Houston - 1/28
Tulsa - 2/1
UCF - 2/4
@Tulane - 2/7
USF - 2/11
@ECU - 2/15
@UCF - 2/19
Temple - 2/22
@Memphis - 2/26
SMU - 3/5

After a 7-11 record and 8th place finish in the AAC regular season standings last season, the most immediate goal over the next few months will be to improve on 21/22.

While a NCAA Tournament at-large berth appears out of the question based on the results of non-conference play, qualifying for the NIT with 20+ wins would certainly mark progress in Wes Miller's second season.

With 18 more games to go before league convenes in Fort Worth, what do you predict to be our conference record by the end of the regular season?

Queens_NYC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-28-2022, 10:21 PM   #2
sedziobs
Senior Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,074
sedziobs is on a distinguished road
I went with 10-8. I think we go 1-5 against Houston, Memphis, and UCF. That would mean 9-3 against the rest of the conference.
sedziobs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-28-2022, 10:33 PM   #3
sedziobs
Senior Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,074
sedziobs is on a distinguished road
My general rule of thumb is a .500 record in Q1/2 games with one or two bad losses puts a team squarely on the bubble. So far we are 0-3 in Q1/2 games with a bad loss. With current NET rankings, we only have 7 Q1/2 games left on the schedule. We would have to go 5-2 in those games to get to .500 and maybe take another bad loss. In other words, we probably need to go at least 15-3 in the conference to be in position to make the tournament.
sedziobs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2022, 07:41 AM   #4
Queens_NYC
Elite Member
 
Queens_NYC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,439
Queens_NYC is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I went with 10-8. I think we go 1-5 against Houston, Memphis, and UCF. That would mean 9-3 against the rest of the conference.
I also voted 10-8, and it appears to be the most common prediction.

I only see 4 "highly likely" losses on the remaining schedule: Houston (home and away), @Memphis and @UCF.

For every other game, I think we have close to a 50/50 shot or better.

It's hard to imagine we'll win more than 50% of those 50/50 games based on what we've seen so far, but if we do turn the corner, finishing with anything better than 10-8 would be pretty encouraging from my POV.
Queens_NYC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2022, 09:23 AM   #5
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,286
waterhead is on a distinguished road
I went with 11-7 and thought about 12-6. I have a little more optimism lately based on what can happen when we need Ody at the 4 and can take JD out in certain situations. Also the new found intensity from DDJ on D which I think will end up trickling down the roster. We have been sharing the ball a bit more lately and making extra passes that we typically did not. I think Wes would have put a lot of emphasis over the break to crash the glass from the wing to get better at rebounding.

Also the new Wes on court and in pressers is more of what I would like to see. Claiming he is "not asking anymore" and seeing him getting livid on the court are good developments. He now has good reasons to take players out rather than letting them play through too many mistakes. Lighting them up in timeouts is a good thing.

I am expecting the recent trend of play to continue and if it gets better we will be in good shape. This team can score...if we can play good D...we can maybe even get to 13-5. Still not good enough to make the tourney but we should find out a lot tonight about what we retained and what new adjustments were made over the break.
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2023, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd., - All material on this Cincinnati Bearcat discussion forum is strictly for entertainment purposes only. This site and any pages within are in no way affiliated with the University of Cincinnati. Any images, copyrights, or trademarks used on this site are used under the "Fair Use Provision" of the Copyright Act for purposes of comment, criticism, and news reporting.