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Old 01-18-2023, 07:01 AM   #1
Queens_NYC
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USF

Wednesday, January 18th, 2023
7:00 PM
Yuengling Center
ESPN+

The Bearcats (12-6 [4-2 AAC], KenPom #72, NET #83) travel to Tampa to take on USF (8-10 [1-4 AAC], KenPom #142, NET #158) as they continue their AAC farewell tour.

The Bulls are coming off an 11-point win at ECU which snapped a four-game losing streak where USF lost to the likes of Memphis (away), Temple, Wichita St, and Houston (away). The encouraging part was that each of these losses only came by a margin of 4-7 points.

Under 6th-year coach Brian Gregory, the Bulls are led by 5th-year Memphis transfer 5’9 guard Tyler Harris (16.6 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.6 rpg). They’ll have a match for Lakhin in the post with 4th-year 7’0 center Russel Tchewa who averages 11.8 ppg and 7.8 rpg over 30 minutes/game.

One of the USF's greatest team strengths is offensive rebounding where they average 12.6/game (35th in the nation). One of their greatest weaknesses is free throw shooting where they are shooting 64.2% (337th in the nation) on just under 18 attempts/game.

The Bearcats are 3.5-point favorites on the road.

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Old 01-18-2023, 10:10 AM   #2
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South Florida has been playing much better than their record indicates recently. Overall they are #123 on Torvik, but #81 over the last 10 games. The improvement can mostly be attributed to offense, especially 3pt shooting. In the first 8 games they shot just 29% from beyond the arc, but are shooting 37% in the last 10 games. In that span the offensive efficiency has improved from 0.96 points per possession to 1.05, an incredible turnaround.

Individually, Tyler Harris is shooting it much better. He started the year 1 for 16 from deep but is now up to 39% on 130 attempts. Russel Tchewa is very efficient inside, converting 63% of his 2pt attempts and getting to the foul line 5 times per game. The offense mainly runs through those two guys.

As a team they don't have a lot of glaring holes. They are good at offensive rebounding and interior defense. They aren't good on the defensive glass. The biggest weakness is fouling, where they rank #324. But we are #340 in getting to the line, so we may not be able to take advantage. USF is close to national averages in shot selection both on offense and defense. They don't force a lot of midrange shots and give up a lot of threes though.

With USF not allowing much inside except at the free throw line, we might really struggle to score if the threes aren't falling. On defense we need to chase Harris off the 3pt line and try to make things difficult for Tchewa.
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Old 01-18-2023, 10:41 AM   #3
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In our last 10 games, we have a top 20 defense including a top 10 effective field goal percentage allowed. In the last 5 games we are allowing just 40% shooting inside the arc, fourth best in the country. Unfortunately we are shooting an even worse 38% ourselves, fourth worst in the country. We are all Adam H. Luckily our 41% three point shooting in that span has helped make the offense close to average.
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Old 01-18-2023, 11:18 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
South Florida has been playing much better than their record indicates recently. Overall they are #123 on Torvik, but #81 over the last 10 games. The improvement can mostly be attributed to offense, especially 3pt shooting. In the first 8 games they shot just 29% from beyond the arc, but are shooting 37% in the last 10 games. In that span the offensive efficiency has improved from 0.96 points per possession to 1.05, an incredible turnaround.

Individually, Tyler Harris is shooting it much better. He started the year 1 for 16 from deep but is now up to 39% on 130 attempts. Russel Tchewa is very efficient inside, converting 63% of his 2pt attempts and getting to the foul line 5 times per game. The offense mainly runs through those two guys.

As a team they don't have a lot of glaring holes. They are good at offensive rebounding and interior defense. They aren't good on the defensive glass. The biggest weakness is fouling, where they rank #324. But we are #340 in getting to the line, so we may not be able to take advantage. USF is close to national averages in shot selection both on offense and defense. They don't force a lot of midrange shots and give up a lot of threes though.

With USF not allowing much inside except at the free throw line, we might really struggle to score if the threes aren't falling. On defense we need to chase Harris off the 3pt line and try to make things difficult for Tchewa.
Great breakdown, as always.

Tyler Harris averaged 17.5 ppg against us last season while shooting 6/11 from 3 over the two games against Memphis.

He appears to be thriving in an increased role and is coming off his best two-game stretch of the season where scored 31 vs Houston and 24 against ECU on a combined 11/18 effort from 3.

I say we have DeJulius harrass him like he did Antoine Davis earlier this season to throw him off his rhythm.
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Old 01-18-2023, 12:20 PM   #5
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I say we have DeJulius harrass him like he did Antoine Davis earlier this season to throw him off his rhythm.
Yes, a repeat performance of that would be perfect.
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Old 01-18-2023, 12:36 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Queens_NYC View Post
Great breakdown, as always.

Tyler Harris averaged 17.5 ppg against us last season while shooting 6/11 from 3 over the two games against Memphis.

He appears to be thriving in an increased role and is coming off his best two-game stretch of the season where scored 31 vs Houston and 24 against ECU on a combined 11/18 effort from 3.

I say we have DeJulius harrass him like he did Antoine Davis earlier this season to throw him off his rhythm.
Agreed! Get DDJ to have a good game on Harris. Get Nolley another double double. Then knock a few shots down or FT's.
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Old 01-18-2023, 05:22 PM   #7
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I think a big part of our offensive struggles is that DDJ reverted to being an inefficient scorer. His effective field goal percentage in conference play is only 34%. That's awful. For a while in the non-conference he was making midrange jumpers so his poor shot selection wasn't such a problem. But now he isn't making them.

DDJ has always been pretty good against lesser teams, but his efficiency takes a dive against top 100 competition. It's hard to make step back jumpers against big athletic guards. Against Louisville, NJIT, Bryant, Miami, and LaSalle he was 19 for 30 (63%) on midrange jumpers. The rest of the year he has shot 20 for 71 (28%).

His defense has been good against guards his size, but teams with bigger guards like Temple are very problematic. On EvanMiya DDJ is our second worst defender after Davenport, and it's notable that he's not on our best 2,3,4, or 5 man rotations.

Our defensive efficiency is an incredible 73.3 with the four-man rotation of MAW, Nolley, Ody, and Lakhin, but the offense is only 92.4. We're just missing a scoring wing who is at least an average defender. Adding Davenport improved the offense to above average but kills the good defense. The good news is all those guys will be back next year so if Skillings can develop or Rayvon is an immediate impact player, we could be really good next year.
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Old 01-18-2023, 06:00 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I think a big part of our offensive struggles is that DDJ reverted to being an inefficient scorer. His effective field goal percentage in conference play is only 34%. That's awful. For a while in the non-conference he was making midrange jumpers so his poor shot selection wasn't such a problem. But now he isn't making them.

DDJ has always been pretty good against lesser teams, but his efficiency takes a dive against top 100 competition. It's hard to make step back jumpers against big athletic guards. Against Louisville, NJIT, Bryant, Miami, and LaSalle he was 19 for 30 (63%) on midrange jumpers. The rest of the year he has shot 20 for 71 (28%).

His defense has been good against guards his size, but teams with bigger guards like Temple are very problematic. On EvanMiya DDJ is our second worst defender after Davenport, and it's notable that he's not on our best 2,3,4, or 5 man rotations.

Our defensive efficiency is an incredible 73.3 with the four-man rotation of MAW, Nolley, Ody, and Lakhin, but the offense is only 92.4. We're just missing a scoring wing who is at least an average defender. Adding Davenport improved the offense to above average but kills the good defense. The good news is all those guys will be back next year so if Skillings can develop or Rayvon is an immediate impact player, we could be really good next year.
Good post! DDJ is better off being a scorer in certain games and a distributor in others. According to Miya JD is our best plus minus guy of the starters by a wide margin and DDJ is the worst.

DDJ defense will be needed tonight on Harris and a matchup he might be able to exploit on offense. I agree the longer guards are a problem for him.
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Old 01-18-2023, 07:10 PM   #9
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Should never go behind a screen against Harris. Dumb play by MAW.
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Old 01-18-2023, 07:18 PM   #10
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Rough opening 5 minutes but have picked it up. Skillings slowly showing signs of becoming a future star.
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