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Old 01-21-2023, 08:24 AM   #1
Queens_NYC
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Memphis

Sunday, January 22nd, 2023
1:00 PM
Fifth Third Arena
ESPN2

The Bearcats (13-6 [5-2 AAC], KenPom #70, NET #82) welcome Memphis (14-5 [4-2 AAC], KenPom #36, NET #43) to Fifth Third Arena this weekend as these two storied programs face off for their 85th match-up (Bearcats lead the series 47-37).

The Tigers are looking to earn their second consecutive NCAA tournament bid under 5th-year head coach Penny Hardaway. They are led by SMU transfer and 5th year 5'11 guard Kendric Davis (21.2 ppg, 5.7 apg, 3.6 rpg) who currently leads the AAC in scoring and assists per game. Their frontcourt is powered by 26-year-old 6'9 forward Deandre Williams (16.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.4 apg).

Memphis is expected to be without two major contributors in 5th-year 6'0 guard Alex Lomax (8.1 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3.3 rpg) and 4th-year 6'9 center Malcolm Dandridge (6.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg) who have both recently missed games due to injury.

The Tigers play fast (18th nationally in Adjusted Tempo) and take less 3-point shots than any other team in the AAC with just over 17 attempts/game. They force a lot of turnovers (top 25) and are also doing a better job of taking care of the ball than in years past (top 1/3 of NCAA).

This game marks an opportunity for the Bearcats to earn their first NET "quality" (Q1/Q2) win of the 22/23 season. Memphis, on the other hand, has not lost a Q3/Q4 game yet this season (this game currently stands as a Q3 game for Memphis).

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Old 01-21-2023, 12:26 PM   #2
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Memphis is a well balanced team, with top 50 offense and defense. They don't have any particular offensive strengths, but they also mitigate their only weakness by not taking many threes. It results in an offensive efficiency ranked #36 despite not being top 70 in any individual category. They make up for a lack of threes by getting to the rim where they take a whopping 43% of their shots (compared to just 31% for us). 10% of their looks are dunks. With that style of play they are able to get to the free throw line a lot too.

Defense is more of a mixed bag. Memphis is #34 in forcing turnovers and top 20 in interior defense aided by the 7th best block rate in the country. But they are terrible on the defensive glass (#334) and they foul a lot (#290 free throw rate). But as we saw against another foul prone team in USF, we don't typically take advantage of that. The defensive scheme doesn't force many midrange shots (only 21%) and gives up a ton of threes (44% of shots allowed). They also give up a lot of assists, which is probably due to overplaying trying to force turnovers (which also probably leads to open threes). In the last 10 games their defense has taken a step back, ranking outside the top 100.

Davis and Williams are the obvious guys to focus on. Davis is actually not very efficient from the floor, with only a 46% effective field goal percentage. He takes a lot of midrange shots and is only 31% from three. But he gets to the free throw line 8 times per game where he shoots 87%. That gives him a 55% true shooting percentage. So the strategy should be to play off of Davis and let him shoot, but don't foul him or let him get into the paint where he will convert at 56% or dish out a 31 assist rate.

On offense we should take care of the ball and take advantage of overplays by looking for open threes, and then crash the boards. We have been good in those areas all year and Memphis is susceptible to it. I think this a good matchup for our offense, assuming we can actually make some threes.
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Old 01-21-2023, 12:32 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Queens_NYC View Post
Memphis, on the other hand, has not lost a Q3/Q4 game yet this season (this game currently stands as a Q3 game for Memphis).
Good preview. This will be a Q2 game for Memphis, facing a top 135 team on the road. We're #81, just outside the mark needed for a Q1 game.
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Old 01-21-2023, 02:26 PM   #4
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Good preview. This will be a Q2 game for Memphis, facing a top 135 team on the road. We're #81, just outside the mark needed for a Q1 game.
Ah, correct. Brain fart on my end.

Memphis is 1-2 in Q1 games and 3-3 in Q2 games.
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Old 01-22-2023, 08:01 AM   #5
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Bearcats are 3-point favorites
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Old 01-22-2023, 10:34 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Queens_NYC View Post
Sunday, January 22nd, 2023
1:00 PM
Fifth Third Arena
ESPN2

The Bearcats (13-6 [5-2 AAC], KenPom #70, NET #82) welcome Memphis (14-5 [4-2 AAC], KenPom #36, NET #43) to Fifth Third Arena this weekend as these two storied programs face off for their 85th match-up (Bearcats lead the series 47-37).

The Tigers are looking to earn their second consecutive NCAA tournament bid under 5th-year head coach Penny Hardaway. They are led by SMU transfer and 5th year 5'11 guard Kendric Davis (21.2 ppg, 5.7 apg, 3.6 rpg) who currently leads the AAC in scoring and assists per game. Their frontcourt is powered by 26-year-old 6'9 forward Deandre Williams (16.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.4 apg).

Memphis is expected to be without two major contributors in 5th-year 6'0 guard Alex Lomax (8.1 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3.3 rpg) and 4th-year 6'9 center Malcolm Dandridge (6.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg) who have both recently missed games due to injury.

The Tigers play fast (18th nationally in Adjusted Tempo) and take less 3-point shots than any other team in the AAC with just over 17 attempts/game. They force a lot of turnovers (top 25) and are also doing a better job of taking care of the ball than in years past (top 1/3 of NCAA).

This game marks an opportunity for the Bearcats to earn their first NET "quality" (Q1/Q2) win of the 22/23 season. Memphis, on the other hand, has not lost a Q3/Q4 game yet this season (this game currently stands as a Q3 game for Memphis).
Hopefully DDJ and MAW continue to play good D on opposing guards. Hopefully Ody can play. Not sure JD can do a decent job on Williams. If Ody can't go JD will need some help.

Move the ball, make some 3's, crash the boards.
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Old 01-22-2023, 01:51 PM   #7
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The offense has been terrible. We're not making shots because everything is contested. And we're way too sloppy with the ball. We are clearly trying to post up Davis, but that doesn't work very well when your starting 20 feet from the basket. We whould be working off the ball to post him up in the lane.
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Old 01-22-2023, 02:01 PM   #8
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So the strategy should be to play off of Davis and let him shoot, but don't foul him or let him get into the paint where he will convert at 56% or dish out a 31 assist rate.
We're doing the opposite of what I suggested. We're playing tight on Davis beyond the three point line, inviting him to drive. He's drawing contact and finding open shooters.
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Old 01-22-2023, 02:07 PM   #9
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Davenport is now 2-17 from 3 over the past 5 halves.
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Old 01-22-2023, 02:14 PM   #10
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Davenport is now 2-17 from 3 over the past 5 halves.
And Wes still plays him, a lot. He is brutal. And why would Wes keep him in for the last possession, he is their worst defender?
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