Games of Importance for UC's Resume

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Wednesday Jan 24th 2018

South Carolina @ Florida
7pm SEC Network
Florida looking like a safe Group 1 loss, at RPI 26. They would need to go 5-7 or worse to drop out of the top 50. 82% chance to win.

Nevada @ Wyoming
11pm ESPNU
Wyoming at RPI 74. Need to finish 7-5 to stay top 100. 24% chance to win.

Upsets in both games. Florida falls to 40 with the loss. Wyoming wins in double OT and improves to 58.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Upsets in both games. Florida falls to 40 with the loss. Wyoming wins in double OT and improves to 58.

That is a big drop for FLA. An equally nice jump for Wyoming.

It actually wouldn't bother me too much if FLA falls to group 2 (not that I think they will). I am not rooting for it but we lost to them and our record against group 1 would look better as a result. It would not be a bad loss and our record against group 2 should be very solid anyway. I know it affects SOS a little bit...but just sayin...not the end of the world if it happens.

I think Cincrulz11 brought this subject up. What does the committee see as more important in groups (columns)? Win loss %? Or total wins and total chances in that group?

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by waterhead

That is a big drop for FLA. An equally nice jump for Wyoming.

It actually wouldn't bother me too much if FLA falls to group 2 (not that I think they will). I am not rooting for it but we lost to them and our record against group 1 would look better as a result. It would not be a bad loss and our record against group 2 should be very solid anyway. I know it affects SOS a little bit...but just sayin...not the end of the world if it happens.

I think Cincrulz11 brought this subject up. What does the committee see as more important in groups (columns)? Win loss %? Or total wins and total chances in that group?

Let me give an example

Team A has a record of 4-2 in group 1 66%

Team B has a record of 5-5 in group 1 50%

Which is better? Edit...let's assume the general ranking of the teams they play in RPI is roughly the same.

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by waterhead

Let me give an example

Team A has a record of 4-2 in group 1 66%

Team B has a record of 5-5 in group 1 50%

Which is better? Edit...let's assume the general ranking of the teams they play in RPI is roughly the same.

yeah its a thought that crossed my mind. of course it probably isn't better to lose to a group 2 team than it is to lose to a group 1 team.


however i could see a scenario where a team that is 4-1 vs group 1 could be talked about as being "better" than a team that is 4-2 vs group 1 cause they have a higher winning percentage vs group 1.


just never know how it will look to committee members.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

yeah its a thought that crossed my mind. of course it probably isn't better to lose to a group 2 team than it is to lose to a group 1 team.


however i could see a scenario where a team that is 4-1 vs group 1 could be talked about as being "better" than a team that is 4-2 vs group 1 cause they have a higher winning percentage vs group 1.


just never know how it will look to committee members.

I posted something about one committee member answering questions a while back but forget the thread.

He said they consider total wins and losses in group 1. Record % in that group. How many were away from home. They don't really dock too much for bad losses unless you have a few. He said they don't consider who your coach is or the prestige of your conference other than it's strength. They don't consider past tourney results etc. He claims they basically erase the chalkboard and there is no preferential treatment.

I just don't know how much weight they put on win % vs totals in groups.

[sedziobs]

If you're going to do this comparison, you need to include the Group 2 record as well. The committee will see both together. How about a blind resume test:

Team A: 3-1 Group 1, 1-2 Group 2, 1 bad loss
Team B: 4-4 Group 1, 0-0 Group 2, 1 bad loss

Who would you take?

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

If you're going to do this comparison, you need to include the Group 2 record as well. The committee will see both together. How about a blind resume test:

Team A: 3-1 Group 1, 1-2 Group 2, 1 bad loss
Team B: 4-4 Group 1, 0-0 Group 2, 1 bad loss

Who would you take?

I don't need more hypotheticals. I need answers damnit

[sedziobs]

Lol. Team A is Houston (11 seed on bracketmatrix). Team B is Seton Hall (5 seed on bracketmatrix).

That would indicate that Florida staying in Group 1 is preferred.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Lol. Team A is Houston (11 seed on bracketmatrix). Team B is Seton Hall (5 seed on bracketmatrix).

That would indicate that Florida staying in Group 1 is preferred.

Thanks. This season the RPI has not played out all the way yet.

I was curious about past ncaa bubble results but did not want to do the research. A team like Maryland last year would be an interesting subject. Maybe some other bubble teams? I am not asking you to do the research either but maybe someone knows off hand.

[sedziobs]

Looking at past years for evidence is tougher now since the Group system is new this year.