New Expectations

**waterhead** · 02-07-2014, 08:48 AM

We have 3 "should wins" and 4 "battles" remaining. I would take any version of going 5-2 from here on out. That would give us at least two more quality wins.

That should earn us at least a share of a conference championship and a top 3 seed in the dance.

Levettation · 02-07-2014, 12:41 PM

My Expectations today:
1. Win reg season AAC
2. Get to AAC conf tourny title game
3. Win 1st game of NCAA tourny

Reasoning:
1. UC owns a 2.5 game lead so they can even split the 4 remain "tough" games and still win the title if they take care of the rest.

2. Small sample size=anything can happen. If we win reg season title we'll be favored in Memphis, yes, but anything can happen on a given night. Just like when we beat 'Cuse in the Big East semis 2 years ago.

3. With our projected seeding we should handle 1st round match up in NCAA vs 12-16 seed. However, after that I just don't see anything as a given (even for 1 and 2 seeds). In the round of 32 you are basically playing a top 25 team on a neutral site. Last night we beat a top 25 team in UConn, but it was a battle on our home court without one of their shooters.

Surely, if you are a title contender like Syracuse/Arizona types you would be disappointed with an exit before final 4, but all things considered, I don't think UC is in that category. Not to say they cannot win it all, but no one expects that level of success (outside of the Bearcat locker room of course).

I learned after all those disappointing 2nd round exits years ago that these games are pure battle-for-your-life contests. Unless UC wins out I think a 3 or 4 seed is very realistic. Look at how UC beat a Florida State team in 2012 when many considered them a final 4 contender. That game was physical fight between a 3 and 6 seed. Of course ranks/seeding and other paper metrics say you should win, but these lower seeded teams play with nothing to lose.

Just my two cents. In the end I will be satisfied if we win all the games versus lower seeded teams. Anything against a higher seed is house money (sweet 16 game or later) in my opinion.

TheLivingLegend · 02-07-2014, 02:32 PM

My one and only concern with this team... I feel like they can beat anyone in the country... I also feel like they could lose any game. If SK has an off night, can we score enough points? While UC has proven they can win close games... I dont feel they have the offensive fire power to blow out any team. Would hate to see there season end in the game they have no business losing.

**waterhead** · 02-07-2014, 06:16 PM

In terms of rankings I thought if we could win the first game against UCONN it would mitigate damage in the case we lost to SMU. In other words not a lot of movement downwards if we happen to lose (knock on wood). On the other hand we can't jump up much right now with a win unless teams above us lose which hasn't happened yet.

I think we have already done our part to hold our ground for the most part this week. We could potentially drop a little with a loss but we won't jump many teams with a win either. Bottom line I think we remain between top 5 and top 10 either way.

bearcat jeff · 02-07-2014, 06:41 PM

Regular season league champion, at least semi's in league tourny, Sweet 16 or better. However, if the only thing I will be hugely disappointed in would be if they fail to win the reg season title. We all know that a tournament it just takes one subpar game. That said I think they are built mentally for that type atmosphere.

UCalum08 · 02-07-2014, 06:42 PM

I expect us to win the conference outright. To be honest I don't carry much weight on the conference tourney. (that is just me) I expect us to be a 3 seed in the NCAA and make the Sweet 16. I would like to get to the elite 8 but I expect us to get to the Sweet 16 match ups pending.

**waterhead** · 02-07-2014, 07:03 PM

I agree with BCJ and UCalum08.

Conference Champs. Win at least one game in conference tourney (semifinals). Make it to the second week and beyond in the NCAA dance.

02-07-2014, 02:32 PM	#33
TheLivingLegend Epic Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Nati Posts: 3,837	My one and only concern with this team... I feel like they can beat anyone in the country... I also feel like they could lose any game. If SK has an off night, can we score enough points? While UC has proven they can win close games... I dont feel they have the offensive fire power to blow out any team. Would hate to see there season end in the game they have no business losing. __________________ ""eating dirt" is constructive criticism to becoming a better person."

02-07-2014, 08:48 AM	#31
waterhead Senior Moderator Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,298	We have 3 "should wins" and 4 "battles" remaining. I would take any version of going 5-2 from here on out. That would give us at least two more quality wins. That should earn us at least a share of a conference championship and a top 3 seed in the dance.

02-07-2014, 12:41 PM	#32
Levettation Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 157	My Expectations today: 1. Win reg season AAC 2. Get to AAC conf tourny title game 3. Win 1st game of NCAA tourny Reasoning: 1. UC owns a 2.5 game lead so they can even split the 4 remain "tough" games and still win the title if they take care of the rest. 2. Small sample size=anything can happen. If we win reg season title we'll be favored in Memphis, yes, but anything can happen on a given night. Just like when we beat 'Cuse in the Big East semis 2 years ago. 3. With our projected seeding we should handle 1st round match up in NCAA vs 12-16 seed. However, after that I just don't see anything as a given (even for 1 and 2 seeds). In the round of 32 you are basically playing a top 25 team on a neutral site. Last night we beat a top 25 team in UConn, but it was a battle on our home court without one of their shooters. Surely, if you are a title contender like Syracuse/Arizona types you would be disappointed with an exit before final 4, but all things considered, I don't think UC is in that category. Not to say they cannot win it all, but no one expects that level of success (outside of the Bearcat locker room of course). I learned after all those disappointing 2nd round exits years ago that these games are pure battle-for-your-life contests. Unless UC wins out I think a 3 or 4 seed is very realistic. Look at how UC beat a Florida State team in 2012 when many considered them a final 4 contender. That game was physical fight between a 3 and 6 seed. Of course ranks/seeding and other paper metrics say you should win, but these lower seeded teams play with nothing to lose. Just my two cents. In the end I will be satisfied if we win all the games versus lower seeded teams. Anything against a higher seed is house money (sweet 16 game or later) in my opinion.

02-07-2014, 06:16 PM	#34
waterhead Senior Moderator Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,298	In terms of rankings I thought if we could win the first game against UCONN it would mitigate damage in the case we lost to SMU. In other words not a lot of movement downwards if we happen to lose (knock on wood). On the other hand we can't jump up much right now with a win unless teams above us lose which hasn't happened yet. I think we have already done our part to hold our ground for the most part this week. We could potentially drop a little with a loss but we won't jump many teams with a win either. Bottom line I think we remain between top 5 and top 10 either way.

02-07-2014, 06:41 PM	#35
bearcat jeff Hoops Moderator Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 7,502	Regular season league champion, at least semi's in league tourny, Sweet 16 or better. However, if the only thing I will be hugely disappointed in would be if they fail to win the reg season title. We all know that a tournament it just takes one subpar game. That said I think they are built mentally for that type atmosphere.

02-07-2014, 06:42 PM	#36
UCalum08 Epic Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 6,827	I expect us to win the conference outright. To be honest I don't carry much weight on the conference tourney. (that is just me) I expect us to be a 3 seed in the NCAA and make the Sweet 16. I would like to get to the elite 8 but I expect us to get to the Sweet 16 match ups pending.

02-07-2014, 07:03 PM	#37
waterhead Senior Moderator Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,298	I agree with BCJ and UCalum08. Conference Champs. Win at least one game in conference tourney (semifinals). Make it to the second week and beyond in the NCAA dance.