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Old 01-03-2014, 10:23 AM   #1
Scheids21
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Conference Predictions

The team is still growing but we have a better view of who we are now.

Most computers have us finishing 12-6 and that sounds about right. I think this team is good enough to get an upset or two at home against Louisville, Memphis, and UCONN but I also expect us to drop a couple road games against middle tier teams like SMU, temple, and Houston.

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Old 01-03-2014, 10:34 AM   #2
BearcatMick
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Two conference losses.

Don't think we lose more than 2 barring injury
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Old 01-03-2014, 10:39 AM   #3
Bearcatboy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BearcatMick View Post
Two conference losses.

Don't think we lose more than 2 barring injury
I hope your right but think your off this team is good but not that good, 6 loses for me.
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Old 01-03-2014, 11:35 AM   #4
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I will say between 11 and 13 wins. Anything more and I'll be very happy and anything less I'll be disappointed.
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Old 01-03-2014, 11:54 AM   #5
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Ken Pomeroy ran 10,000 simulations for who would win each conference on his blog. Here are the results:

29. AAC

The pick: Louisville. I’m not sure how much Chane Behanan’s dismissal affects these numbers. He was effective when he played, but he wasn’t playing as much as last season. Pitino has rarely played small this season, so it figures that Mangok Mathiang will be asked to do more. Draw your own conclusions.

The contrarian pick: Memphis. It’s either the Tigers or UConn for this honor, and the computer says Memphis is looking more like the second-best team, which I’m not sure agrees with the general consensus. I’m never good about gauging that kind of thing.

Louisville 7239
Memphis 1474
Connecticut 579
Cincinnati 467
SMU 227
Temple 12
UCF 1

And here are the projected standings at the end of the year after every team has played one conference game:

UofL: 16-2
Mem: 13-5
UC: 12-6
UConn: 10-8
SMU: 10-8
Temple: 7-11
UCF: 6-12
USF: 5-13
Houston: 5-13
Rutgers: 5-13
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Old 01-03-2014, 12:04 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Not Guilty View Post
Ken Pomeroy ran 10,000 simulations for who would win each conference on his blog. Here are the results:

29. AAC

The pick: Louisville. Iím not sure how much Chane Behananís dismissal affects these numbers. He was effective when he played, but he wasnít playing as much as last season. Pitino has rarely played small this season, so it figures that Mangok Mathiang will be asked to do more. Draw your own conclusions.

The contrarian pick: Memphis. Itís either the Tigers or UConn for this honor, and the computer says Memphis is looking more like the second-best team, which Iím not sure agrees with the general consensus. Iím never good about gauging that kind of thing.

Louisville 7239
Memphis 1474
Connecticut 579
Cincinnati 467
SMU 227
Temple 12
UCF 1

And here are the projected standings at the end of the year after every team has played one conference game:

UofL: 16-2
Mem: 13-5
UC: 12-6
UConn: 10-8
SMU: 10-8
Temple: 7-11
UCF: 6-12
USF: 5-13
Houston: 5-13
Rutgers: 5-13
I typically am a numbers guy but Louisville is currently #1 in KenPom which is probably why they won over 70% of the simulations. However, I don't think they are that good. They could easily still win the league but I don't see it being by 3 games like he projects. I actually would pick Memphis to win the AAC at the moment.
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Old 01-03-2014, 12:06 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BearcatMick View Post
Two conference losses.

Don't think we lose more than 2 barring injury
it's on record! BearcatMick actually predicted UC to lose a game.
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Old 01-03-2014, 12:12 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bearcat_NTS View Post
I typically am a numbers guy but Louisville is currently #1 in KenPom which is probably why they won over 70% of the simulations. However, I don't think they are that good. They could easily still win the league but I don't see it being by 3 games like he projects. I actually would pick Memphis to win the AAC at the moment.
Based on what I've read recently, you don't learn nearly as much from teams when they play lesser competition as you do when they play solid to good competition. And while Louisville has actually played a schedule that rates as more difficult than UC's, they have only played 4 games against top 100 teams and lost to the 2 name brands (their 2 wins were beat downs though).

So maybe they aren't the best team in the country. But I think its fair to say that they are the best team in the conference. And since every team plays each other twice, I'd say they are the clear favorite (but that doesn't mean they would win the conference 72% of the time).
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Old 01-04-2014, 07:30 PM   #9
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UConn loses for the second time in a row going down to SMU.
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Old 01-04-2014, 08:17 PM   #10
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By seasons end SMU will be a solid win as will todays.?
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