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View Poll Results: What seed will UC get?
1-2 9 14.52%
3 27 43.55%
4 15 24.19%
5 9 14.52%
6 2 3.23%
7 or worse 0 0%
Voters: 62. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-25-2018, 12:27 PM   #141
sedziobs
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We were 6-5 in column 1 and 2. Hard to justify getting a protected seed when you play about half the number of quality RPI games as others and you roughly split them.

We had 11 column 1 and 2 games last year, and we've already played 9 this year. Of our 11 remaining games, 9 are currently in Groups 1 and 2. Add in the conference tourney and we can almost double the number of quality games compared to last year.

We already have more quality wins this year than we did last year, if you assume the groups to be equivalent.

Last edited by sedziobs; 01-25-2018 at 12:32 PM.
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Old 01-25-2018, 12:36 PM   #142
waterhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
We were 6-5 in column 1 and 2. Hard to justify getting a protected seed when you play about half the number of quality RPI games as others and you roughly split them.

We had 11 column 1 and 2 games last year, and we've already played 9 this year. Of our 11 remaining games, 9 are currently in Groups 1 and 2. Add in the conference tourney and we can almost double the number of quality games compared to last year.

We already have more quality wins this year than we did last year, if you assume the groups to be equivalent.
This is what I was suspecting. We have to win a greater % if we are behind in totals. The changes this year will make a big difference. But we still have to win a very good %.

As of now it all looks pretty good but certain teams could fall out and we still have to play the tough part of our schedule. Other conferences will get tougher too...but we need to perform significantly better (as a %) given the general strength of ours.
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Old 01-25-2018, 12:42 PM   #143
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Agreed. We want to win as many games as possible regardless. The only point of controversy seems to be what group we would like games that we have already lost to be in. I would still prefer as many games as possible in Group 1, no matter the result. The Louisville example from last year shows that you can get a 2 seed even with a losing record against the top tier, as long it has a lot of games in there.
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Old 01-25-2018, 12:47 PM   #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I took a look at the resumes for last year's protected seeds, even though the criteria are different now.

Seed list rank, top 50, 50-100, 101+ losses

1 Villanova 12-2, 5-1, 0
2 Kansas 8-2, 7-2, 0
3 UNC 10-5, 7-2, 0
4 Gonzaga 5-0, 6-1, 0
5 Kentucky 8-4, 10-1, 0
6 Arizona 6-4, 6-0, 0
7 Duke 13-6, 4-1, 1
8 Louisville 7-8, 7-0, 0
9 Oregon 4-3, 10-0, 2
10 Fla St 11-4, 6-2, 1
11 UCLA 6-4, 4-0, 0
12 Baylor 9-4, 5-2, 2
13 Butler 10-4, 6-1, 3
14 Florida 6-8, 9-0, 0
15 WVU 6-4, 7-1, 3
16 Purdue 7-5, 5-1, 1

One thing that sticks out to me is that all of the 1 and 2 seeds had two losses or less outside the top 50. Also, there are two protected seeds who had losing records against the top 50.
I think this is the long and short of it. We went 6-5. The last 4 seed went 12-6. How can you give us a protected seed? You can't. We have to perform better against the top teams.
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Old 01-25-2018, 01:11 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
I think this is the long and short of it. We went 6-5. The last 4 seed went 12-6. How can you give us a protected seed? You can't. We have to perform better against the top teams.
This is why I don't buy that the committee has no "respect" for the AAC. RPI is flawed for sure, but it is known in advance that the committee uses it as their primary tool. The AAC didn't measure up with other conferences using their criteria. It's not due to preconceived bias that our conference was poorly seeded, it's because we fell short according to the numbers. This year is shaping up to be much better.
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Old 01-26-2018, 09:33 AM   #146
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Nearly every credible Bracketologist has moved UC to the 3 seed line.

4 more games until we get the low down from the committee itself.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:05 AM   #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
This is why I don't buy that the committee has no "respect" for the AAC. RPI is flawed for sure, but it is known in advance that the committee uses it as their primary tool. The AAC didn't measure up with other conferences using their criteria. It's not due to preconceived bias that our conference was poorly seeded, it's because we fell short according to the numbers. This year is shaping up to be much better.
I wouldn't doubt if column 1 is 50% of the equation with column 2 being 25%. The rest of the 25% of adjustments can come from a lot of areas.

How did you play away from home? Any signature wins? What did your SOS look like overall and OOC? Did you win your tourney? Any bad losses? What is your RPI? etc etc etc. We won't have the top end wins and our SOS is not great...but I think we can look good on the rest.

I would guess column 1 and 2 results will put you in a seed. The rest can be adjusted from there. Do we need to drop them 1 or move them up 1 with the other factors. I think we got dropped 2 seeds last year (from our RPI) because we really didn't look very good in column 1.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:07 AM   #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kskenyon4 View Post
Nearly every credible Bracketologist has moved UC to the 3 seed line.

4 more games until we get the low down from the committee itself.
If we take care of business we should be in the top 16 this year. Interesting that 4 more games is right before that away game at SMU.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:28 AM   #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
I think this is the long and short of it. We went 6-5. The last 4 seed went 12-6. How can you give us a protected seed? You can't. We have to perform better against the top teams.
So far this year, we are 3-2 vs. the top 50 and 5-0 vs. 51-100. We have 4 more opportunities vs. the top 50 and 4 more opportunities vs. 51-100. Let's say we lose at Wichita State and Houston but win the rest of our games... that would put us at 5-4 vs. the top 50 and 9-0 vs. 51-100. Looking at last year's numbers, that should easily put us in the protected seed range.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:40 AM   #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert View Post
So far this year, we are 3-2 vs. the top 50 and 5-0 vs. 51-100. We have 4 more opportunities vs. the top 50 and 4 more opportunities vs. 51-100. Let's say we lose at Wichita State and Houston but win the rest of our games... that would put us at 5-4 vs. the top 50 and 9-0 vs. 51-100. Looking at last year's numbers, that should easily put us in the protected seed range.
I would agree....we are in a much better spot so far this year
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