01-14-2020, 09:19 AM | #21 |
Senior Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,395
|
Good analysis Waterhead. Those thin margins are why I put so much effort into tracking our quadrant records. 12-6 in conference (19-11 overall) won't cut it with only 14 Q1/Q2 games in my opinion. That would be 5-9 in quality games with two bad losses. 7-9 in quality games could give us a chance, but 9-9 is probably needed (that would mean Temple and SMU move back up, and a couple other teams like UConn and USF also).
Of course a better record than 12-6 makes things easier. |
01-16-2020, 09:26 AM | #22 |
Senior Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,395
|
Q1
17 @Ohio St 19 Wichita St 19 @Wichita St 28 Memphis 28 @Memphis 30 Iowa 43 @Houston 69 @Xavier 71 @Temple Q2 43 Houston 71 Temple 72 Tennessee 90 @UConn 112 @Tulane 113 @UCF Q3 84 SMU 90 UConn 94 Vermont 96 Tulsa 113 UCF 130 Colgate 136 @USF 140 Drake 151 Bowling Green 152 UNLV 156 Valpo 237 @ECU Q4 207 Illinois St 237 ECU 305 Alabama A&M |
01-23-2020, 06:38 AM | #23 |
Epic Member
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,655
|
We rose 7 spots to 56 after beating Temple.
Tulsa rose 19 spots to 66 after last night's Memphis massacre giving us our 4th Q2 win of the season (along with Tenn, @UCF, @Temple). On the downside, Memphis dropped 15 spots to 41, which no longer makes our home game with them Q1. SMU, who sits at 70 right now, could be our 5th Q2 win if we beat them at home next Tuesday. |
01-23-2020, 08:07 AM | #24 |
Senior Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,395
|
Q1
18 @Ohio St 22 Iowa 30 Wichita St 30 @Wichita St 34 @Houston 41 @Memphis 61 @Xavier Q2 34 Houston 41 Memphis 58 Tennessee 66 Tulsa 70 SMU 83 @Temple 87 @UConn 118 @UCF 126 @Tulane Q3 83 Temple 87 UConn 103 Vermont 118 UCF 121 Colgate 137 @USF 134 UNLV 140 Drake 142 Valpo 163 Bowling Green Q4 216 Illinois St 243 ECU 243 @ECU 333 Alabama A&M Last edited by sedziobs; 01-23-2020 at 08:14 AM. |
01-23-2020, 08:11 AM | #25 |
Senior Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
|
I ran the teamcast again on T-rank. Chalked up losses to WSU and Houston away and one home loss to Houston...and all the rest wins. It came up as first team out. I switched the Houston home game to a win and Uconn to a loss and we were the 2nd last team in.
It's starting to look like 6 losses is not going to get the job done and even 5 is going to be right smack on the bubble line. No margin for error. Of course a good tourney performance could help a tiny bit if we can make the finals. |
01-23-2020, 08:49 AM | #26 | |
Epic Member
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,655
|
Quote:
If Wichita and Houston both finish top 30, then we would need to win at least 2 of those 4 regular season games - ideally 3 though. Memphis is currently 41st, but if they win out at home and steal a few road games, there's a chance we can get a Q1 home win against them. Temple could definitely flop going forward, but at 83 right now, it's not too crazy to think they could finish top 76 making last night's win a Q1. If Temple can't come through for us, hopefully UConn can turn it around and rise from 87 to top 76 to make our away match-up Q1. If we also make it to the AAC tournament semi-finals, we'll likely get Wichita, Memphis, or Houston as a Q1 match-up too. |
|
01-23-2020, 10:16 AM | #27 |
Senior Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,395
|
I think it's been so long since we've been a true bubble team that we've forgotten how bad those teams are. Here are the resumes for the First Four last year (Q1,Q2,bad losses):
Belmont (2-2,3-1,2) Temple (2-6,6-2,1) St Johns (5-7,5-3,2) Arizona St (3-3,8-3,4) St Johns is the only team that had more than three Q1 wins, but they also lost 12 games. Arizona St had more bad losses than Q1 wins! I think 13-5 in conference puts us right in with that group if we can get at least two Q1 wins. Our resume would look something like (2-5,6-3,2) going into the AAC tournament. I think 12-6 (1-6,6-3,2) puts us around the first four out per bracketmatrix: TCU (3-10,8-4,0) NC St (3-9,5-1,2) Indiana (6-9,3-6,1) Clemson (1-10,6-3,1) |
01-24-2020, 08:48 AM | #28 | |
Epic Member
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,655
|
Quote:
I found it amusing Lunardi just added Tulsa to his field of 68 today despite Tulsa being 8 spots below us in NET with 0 Q1 wins (0-2), a worse Q2 record (3-3), and a Q4 loss (although we do have 2 Q3 losses). |
|
01-24-2020, 12:27 PM | #29 |
Member
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 67
|
That's because Tulsa is winning the Conference at the moment, while UC is not.
|
01-24-2020, 01:39 PM | #30 |
Epic Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 5,583
|
|
Bookmarks |
|
|